【招银国际】浙江鼎力（603338）-Challenging situation with pressure from bothend demand and US tariff; D/G to HOLD-250408（6页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 8 Apr 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Company Update Zhejiang Dingli(603338 CH)Challenging situation with pressure from both end demand and US t

2、ariff;D/G to HOLD We believe the USs newly proposed tariff on China will place Dingli into a challenging situation,given that the US has long been the most important market for Dingli(close to 30%of total revenue in 2024E,based on our estimates).We see several downside risks:(1)the policy uncertaint

3、ies will likely affect the capex plan of AWP operators in the US,thereby affecting the procurement for AWPs;(2)the proposed 34%incremental tariff on Chinas exports exceeds the 19%reduction of anti-dumping(AD)duties approved by the US last year.While we understand that Dingli will potentially expand

4、the manufacturing capacity in the US,we believe it will take time to see the actual impact.We revise down our 2024E/25E/26E earnings forecast by 3%/12%/18%,due to lower sales assumptions in the US and lower gross margin due to tariffs.We now expect only 5%earnings growth in 2025E.Downgrade to HOLD f

5、rom Buy with new TP of RMB51(previously RMB75),based on 12x 2025E P/E.New tariff to more than offset the decline in AD duties in the US.Dinglis AD duty in the US was finalized at 12.39%in 2024,down substantially from the 31.54%set in 2022.However,the newly proposed tariff on Chinese goods(34%)exceed

6、s the 19ppt reduction on AD duties.This,together with the countervailing duties(CVDs)of 11.95%and the existing tariff on Chinese goods(20%),adds up to a total of 78%tariffs and duties.Accelerated shipment to the US to avoid tariff impact.We understand that Dingli has been accelerating the AWP shipme