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1、CANADIAN METROPOLITAN AREASFebruary 2025HOUSING MARKET INFORMATIONHousing Market OutlookSubscribecmhc.ca/housingupdatesTo request an alternate format,please contact us at:1-800-668-2642 contactcentrecmhc.ca700 Montreal Road,Ottawa,Ontario K1A 0P7Click on links below for direct access.3 National Over

2、view 8 British Columbia Markets 14 Prairies Markets 24 Central Markets 35 Main Eastern MarketsTable of ContentsHousing Market Outlook in select Census Metropolitan Areas(CMAs)Housing Market Outlook|February 20252National OverviewHIGHLIGHTS Foreign trade risks and immigration changes add significant

3、uncertainty to the outlook.We expect economic activity to be modest in 2025,picking up in 2026 and 2027.Housing starts will slow down from 2025 to 2027 mainly due to fewer condominium apartments being built but total starts will remain above their 10-year average.Rental apartment construction will r

4、emain high but may slow in 2027 as demand eases.Ground-oriented homes(detached,semi-detached,row homes)may recover slightly,especially in more affordable options like row houses.We expect housing sales and prices to rebound as lower mortgage rates and changes to mortgage rules unlock pent-up demand

5、in the short term.In the longer term,stronger economic fundamentals will support this rebound.The recovery will be uneven,with slower progress in less affordable regions and in the condominium apartment market.Rental markets are expected to ease with higher vacancy rates slowing rent growth.Renter a

6、ffordability will improve gradually,with more noticeable changes happening later in the forecast period.EconomyUncertain economic outlook amid geopolitical and immigration shiftsCanadas economic future faces significant uncertainty due to potential changes in U.S.trade policies and lower immigration

7、 levels.Given this uncertainty,we do not identify a base case.Instead,we project three plausible scenarios and will monitor how things unfold against these scenarios over the year.1 https:/www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2024/10/20252027-immigration-levels-plan.htmlSignificant

8、 uncertainty surrounds the future of U.S.trade tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S.,potentially reaching up to 25%on all goods,with the likelihood of Canadian retaliation.This could have a major impact on Canadas economy as early as 2025,including:investment uncertainty a weaker Canadian dollar l

9、ower export revenues job losses higher inflation a greater risk of recessionOur medium scenario assumes that the U.S.will impose a 25%tariff on 10%of Canadian goods,with Canada retaliating in return.In this scenario,the negative economic impacts may be softened by stronger U.S.government spending an

10、d higher U.S.demand for imports as a result.Reduced immigration targets1 for 2025-2027 will also affect the economy.Slower population growth could lead to lower economic activity.We assume these targets to be met gradually,over several years.Considering these factors,we expect modest economic growth

11、 in 2025 improving in 2026 and 2027.After declining in 2023 and 2024,GDP per capita should grow over the forecast period.Housing Market Outlook|February 20253Figure1:Canadian economy faces significant uncertaintyCanada Real GDP Forecast(trillion$CAD)2 https:/www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/

12、2024/09/government-announces-boldest-mortgage-reforms-in-decades-to-unlock-homeownership-for-more-canadians.htmlSimilarly,we expect consumer spending per capita to increase over the forecast period,supported by lower borrowing costs.However,several factors will slow growth,notably:loss of purchasing

13、 power from past inflation,with incomes catching up gradually increasing unemployment rates in 2025 higher interest rates on mortgage renewals in 2025-2026Overall consumer spending will grow at a slower pace due to reduced population growth,leading to weaker overall economic demand.This limits the n

14、eed for workers and slows job growth especially in 2025.As a result,we expect unemployment to rise until mid-2025.An improving economy and lower population growth will contribute to lower unemployment rates in 2026 and 2027.Government spending will also likely slow down with lower population growth.

15、We expect Canadian business investment to rebound over the forecast period after twoyears of weak activity.Lower interest rates will support this recovery.However,trade tariffs,rising wage pressures from limited population growth and tighter lending conditions from cautious lenders will limit the re

16、bound.To control inflation and support the economy amid new tariffs,the central bank is expected to further cut rates in 2025.Fixed-rate mortgages,linked to bond yields,already reflect many of these changes and will see small improvements.Variable-rate mortgages,tied to the policy rate,are expected

17、to see bigger reductions,making them attractive to homebuyers.The overall impact of this economic outlook on the housing market is mixed.Slower population growth and economic challenges will limit housing activity.On the other hand,some households will see improved buying power,boosting housing acti

18、vity in the short term.Housing MarketsAffordability improvements release pent-up housing demand,supported by economic recovery later in the forecast Despite the economic headwinds described above,we expect housing market activity in Canada to improve.The combination of lower mortgage rates and chang

19、es to mortgage rules2 introduced in 2024 should unlock pent-up demand from homebuyers previously priced out of the High ScenarioMedium ScenarioLow Scenario202020212022202320242025202720262028Source:CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.1

20、.92.02.12.22.32.42.52.6$ForecastHousing Market Outlook|February 20254market.However,some of these homebuyers may face longer loan terms,higher interest costs over the duration of the loan and larger down payments as prices continue to rise.Compared to new homes,we expect resale homes to attract a la

21、rger share of renewed demand as they offer more options for financially constrained homebuyers.In addition,the length of new construction projects may limit developers ability to meet demand quickly.Millennials,many of whom are first-time buyers,are currently driving housing demand.As remote work de

22、clines,we assume this group will prioritize being closer to jobs,boosting sales recovery in larger urban markets.We also expect some repeat homebuyers to return to the market.This will include those looking to upgrade,taking advantage of lower mortgage rates.It also includes homeowners who purchased

23、 during the pandemic,facing mortgage renewals between 2025 and 2027.These factors may lead them to rethink their housing needs,driving sales activity.The housing market recovery will be uneven with the condominium apartment market lagging especially in regions that depend on investor activity.Invest

24、ors who bought pre-construction units to rent out are increasingly selling as costs rise faster than rental incomes.We expect listings to continue to increase,driven by record new condominium apartment completions in 2025 and softening rental markets.Prices will grow faster in 2025,reflecting a reco

25、very and renewed demand for ground-oriented homes,before slowing down in 2026-2027.By 2027,we expect much of the pent-up demand to be met.Although mortgage payments and prices will rise,improved job markets and income growth will make housing more attainable than during the 2022-2024 period.This wil

26、l support further recovery in sales.More affordable regions will lead price and sales recoveryThe housing markets in Ontario and British Columbia are particularly unaffordable.We expect sales in these markets to remain below their 10-year averages.This is due to ongoing affordability challenges and

27、the more notable impact of new immigration targets.We expect prices to grow more slowly in these provinces,especially in the first half of the forecast period.The more affordable Alberta and Quebec markets began recovering in early 2024.Sales in these provinces are expected to reach historically hig

28、h levels,with prices growing faster than national averages during the first half of the forecast period.Housing starts set to slow downWe expect housing starts to slow down over the forecast period,remaining above their 10-year average.The slowdown is primarily due to fewer condominium apartments be

29、ing built.With low investor interest and more young families looking for family-friendly homes,developers will find it harder to sell enough units to fund new projects.The increase in unsold units will likely reduce new project launches,leading to a decline in new condominium apartment construction.

30、Regional activity will vary:Ontario:Pre-construction condominium apartments,often bought by investors,will see lower demand due to weaker resale and rental markets.This will lead to new construction slowing down as of 2025.British Columbia:With fewer investors and stronger resale markets,the slowdow

31、n in condominium apartment construction will be milder and delayed.Alberta:Because more buyers are actual residents as opposed to investors,the impact on new construction will be minimal.Rental apartment construction reached record levels in 2024 due to government support,a rapidly growing renter po

32、pulation and strong rent growth at the time of planning.We expect this momentum to continue through 2025-2026,supported by numerous projects set to start.However,softening rental market conditions may lead to fewer rental projects starting in 2027.We expect a small recovery in ground-oriented home c

33、onstruction,led by lower-priced options.First-time buyers may prefer resale homes that offer better supply.Developers will be limited in their ability to compete with these resale markets due to high costs and lower profits.Regionally,new construction in Quebec will recover from recent lows.In Alber

34、ta,new construction will slow down from high levels.Housing Market Outlook|February 20255Figure2:Canadas new construction slows but maintains historic strengthHousing starts by dwelling type3 https:/assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/res

35、earch-reports/2024/understanding-filtering-long-term-strategy-new-supply-housing-affordability-en.pdfRental markets continue to rebalanceSince 2024,rental supply has grown faster than new demand but affordability remains a challenge.We expect lower immigration and an increase in first-time homebuyer

36、s to continue to reduce rental demand throughout 2025-2027.Supply will continue to expand as new rental units are completed,leading to higher vacancies and slower rent increases.However,rental affordability will take more time to improve.Some vacated units will adjust to market rents and renters inc

37、omes will catch up to previous market rent increases.Additionally,as financially able tenants move to higher-priced new units,more affordable options will gradually open up for other tenants(PDF)3.Alternative ScenariosTo address significant economic uncertainty,we present two alternative scenarios b

38、elow in addition to the medium scenario presented above.1.Low-growth Scenario The U.S.puts higher tariffs on Canadian exports,causing job losses and a recession in 2025.U.S.immigration policies become stricter,making Canada more attractive to immigrants,leading to higher immigration than expected.Hi

39、gher tariffs temporarily raise inflation but the central bank lowers the policy rate to support the economy.Financial uncertainty increases mortgage borrowing costs slightly relative to the medium scenario.ApartmentRowSingle&Semi-detachedTotal(medium scenario forecast)Source:CMHCThe forecasts includ

40、ed in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002024 2025F 2026F 2027F202220202018201620142012201020082006200420022000Housing Market Outlook|February 20256Impact on housing:The recession delays housing recovery,increasing pent-up

41、 demand.Fewer homes are built due to weaker demand and supply challenges.By late 2026,the economy rebounds and a growing population boosts home sales.Rental markets stay tight,limiting improvements in rental affordability.2.High-growth Scenario The U.S.introduces fewer and shorter-lasting tariffs,wh

42、ile U.S.government spending boosts Canadian exports.Canadian immigration meets recent targets.Higher incomes and stronger consumer confidence encourage more spending.Stronger declines in borrowing costs make homeownership more attainable.Impact on housing:More homes are built thanks to better financ

43、ing and business conditions.Stronger job and income growth combined with lower mortgage rates make homeownership more accessible.Higher demand pushes home prices up more quickly.Forecast Summary(Canada)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowMediumHighLowMediumHighLowMediumHighNew Home MarketStarts:Star

44、ts Total 261,849 240,267 245,367 226,600 240,500 243,000 215,300 238,600 249,500 227,300 232,900 249,300Resale Market MLS Sales503,742 447,728 477,100(F)464,600 515,700 524,600 505,000 528,900 550,100 530,300 547,900 568,900 MLS Average Price($)704,543 678,288 687,100(F)704,900 729,200 734,200 709,0

45、00 749,600 772,200 747,300 770,100 804,500Economic Overview Real GDP Growth(%)4.21.51.2(F)-0.51.31.71.71.62.03.22.02.1 Employment Growth(%)4.02.41.70.30.81.00.90.91.11.50.90.9 Fixed 5-Year*Mortgage Rate(%)4.96.05.85.75.55.35.65.65.25.65.65.2*Conventional 5-year fixed mortgage rate(average of rates p

46、osted by Canadian lending institutions).The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Source:CMHC,CREA,Statistics Canada,Haver AnalyticsHousing Market Outlook|February 20257British Columbia MarketsVancouver,VictoriaBritish Columbias(B.C.)housing mar

47、kets will face mixed results in 2025.Resale markets are likely to recover after slowing down over several years.Meanwhile,we expect rental markets to continue softening with higher vacancy rates.New home construction will be marginally higher as some demand returns to the presale market.Regional ove

48、rviewSlower population growth will impact housing demandWe expect economic growth to be slower in B.C.in 2025 before rebounding in 2026 and 2027.Employment is expected to continue weakening with slower job creation until mid-2025 but will improve throughout the remaining forecast horizon.Wage and di

49、sposable income growth was relatively significant in recent years but will be flat in 2025.These factors affect a households capacity to pay for housing.Changes to immigration policy will also have a significant effect on housing demand in B.C.International migrants to Canada are likely to settle in

50、 the province,especially in major regions like Metro Vancouver.Recent years have seen large inflows of non-permanent residents.Net inflows are expected to slow over the forecast horizon.At the same time,residents in B.C.s pricier regions will continue to seek more affordable housing in markets like

51、the Prairies,resulting in net interprovincial outflows.Within B.C.,some residents of Vancouver will continue to seek more affordable markets like Chilliwack,Victoria and Kelowna.Resale activity on the rise in 2025 supported by low mortgage ratesWe expect the resale markets in both Vancouver and Vict

52、oria to rebound in 2025 after 2years of declining sales activity.This shift will be most prominent in 2025 with marginal growth in sales and prices in 2026 and 2027.The main driver will be continued low mortgage rates that will expand borrowing capacity.Higher interest rates in the past 2years slowe

53、d down resale activity while average prices remained below 2022 peaks.The impact of recent rate cuts began to appear in the resale market in late 2024 with elevated sales activity compared to the same time in 2023.We expect this to continue.However,total sales in 2025 will only approach long-term av

54、erages.They will remain well below highs seen in 2021.Changes to international migration patterns will have an impact on resale markets.However,these wont be as significant as in the rental market.Any impact is likely to be concentrated in Vancouver,as recent immigrants are less likely to buy homes

55、in other urban centres in B.C.,like Victoria.Housing Market Outlook|February 20258Figure1:Increased demand in Metro Vancouver will support sales after several years of below average activitySales by type of dwelling and median forecasts,Vancouver CMAPrices to climb mostly in 2025 and stabilize with

56、marginal growth beyondIncreased sales activity will help absorb some inventory on the market right now in the form of unsold new inventory and active listings.We expect average days on market to also fall slightly after climbing for 2years.This will result in a hotter market with more upward price p

57、ressure.Most of this will be concentrated in 2025 when the effects of lower mortgage rates are likely to manifest.High wage growth in recent years along with continued low rates will expand borrowing capacity to levels similar to mid-2020.With price growth slowing down recently,higher borrowing capa

58、city will be more effective in driving demand.The return of price growth in 2025 will also help spur expectations for investors,especially those looking at presales.Housing starts to grow,supported by favourable financing policies and more demand for new homesWe expect housing starts to rebound marg

59、inally in both Vancouver and Victoria in 2025 after a weaker 2024.This will mainly be driven by multi-unit starts,especially in the rental market.A historically tight rental market and government support will continue to encourage new rental developments.However,as more supply comes online and rent

60、growth slows,developers may become more cautious.This may limit rental development later in the forecast horizon.While difficulties in new condominium construction will continue due to pricing and a lack of presales,a stronger resale market will support planned projects.Rising unabsorbed inventory o

61、f this type has signalled a lack of demand,putting some projects on hold.Consumer expectations for future pricing have also lowered as price growth was muted for the past 2years.As mortgage rates stay lower,potential homebuyers may borrow more to support new construction.However,a lack of land trans

62、actions in recent quarters may dampen multi-unit construction further into the forecast horizon.010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0002027F2026F2025F202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010ApartmentAttachedSingle Detached2014-2024 Average Total SalesSources:Greater Vancouver

63、 REALTORS,Fraser Valley Real Estate Board,CMHCHousing Market Outlook|February 20259Low mortgage rates will also support a turnaround in single-detached construction in both Vancouver and Victoria as demand returns for this segment.In the longer term,this type of housing will continue to be scarcer a

64、s a lack of new land and the pricing of existing land discourage new supply.Rental vacancies will increase as new supply comes online and migration changes reduce demandVacancy rates in major centres across B.C.rose in 2024 after remaining relatively low over multiple years.We expect vacancy rates t

65、o stay historically high in the next few years.A record number of units are under construction as part of efforts to increase rental supply.Most of these units will likely enter the rental market in the next few years.These units are likely to come onto market at high rents,potentially impacting the

66、ir absorption rates.Lower growth in the renter population will be the main driver in rental markets in B.C.,especially in urban centres.New international migrants are likely to settle in these regions and occupy rental units.As we expect lower population growth from these sources in the next few yea

67、rs,rental demand will be impacted.Recent immigrants are much more likely to choose rental housing than homeownership.As more new,higher-priced units come onto market,average rents will continue rising.However,we expect asking rents to be negatively pressured as rental demand declines.This will help

68、affordability and lead to higher turnover as the gap between rents of occupied units and vacant units decreases.Figure2:Influx of Rental Supply Will Impact the Market in the Near FuturePurpose Built Rental Universe Supply and Under Construction02468101214161820%of universe under construction,Victori

69、a%of universe under construction,Vancouver202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010Source:CMHC%Housing Market Outlook|February 202510This forecast is subject to risksThe forecast for B.C.is subject to macroeconomic forces similar to those that affect other regions in Canada,like i

70、nterest rates,inflation and migration.If these forces diverge from expected paths,the forecast will be impacted.Potential trade tariffs from the new U.S.administration may impact the provincial economy,especially on major items like softwood lumber,agriculture and natural gas.Stronger tariffs will n

71、egatively affect rural communities at first and urban areas afterwards.Rental construction has benefitted from federal financing incentives and municipal waivers.If programs like these change,new construction may be negatively impacted.HIGHLIGHTSVancouverKey takeaways Resale activity will rebound mo

72、stly in 2025 from lagged effects of low mortgage rates,with marginal growth in the years after.Average prices will increase to new highs by the end of 2025.Increased presales will support a slight recovery in new home construction,which will face pressures limiting its growth beyond 2025.We expect m

73、ore vacancies in the rental market as lower immigration reduces demand while large amounts of inventory come online.Metro Vancouver will continue to be the centre of focus for housing activity and demand as resale markets rebound in 2025.Sales and prices of condominium units further away from the ci

74、ty centre will increase marginally after weak activity in the past 2years.Specifically,new condominium pricing in Surrey and Burnaby will see some support after quarters of climbing unsold inventory.Sales and development of ground-oriented homes like single-detached and semi-detached homes will also

75、 see support as consumer budgets increase.While single-detached prices will continue to rise,sales and development will continue to shift toward semi-detached homes due to affordability constraints especially in the City of Vancouver.Construction and sales of townhomes will rebound as well,with a fo

76、cus on areas further out in the suburbs north of the Fraser River.Land is relatively cheaper in these areas and commutes arent as congested by bridges compared to the south.Cheaper land allows developers to continue building and selling at more affordable prices.The recent increase in the insured mo

77、rtgage price limit from$1 million to$1.5 million will support sales and prices of homes in Vancouver.This is likely to affect townhome sales the most,as these are the most common type of home sold near the$1-million mark.This will benefit dual-income households and those seeking to acquire more spac

78、e.Dual-income buyers account for more than half of transactions in Metro Vancouver.Starts are expected to rebound in Metro Vancouver in 2025 after declining significantly in 2024.However,a lack of land transactions will limit further growth in 2026 and beyond.Developers have been extending land loan

79、s from 3years to 5years.This indicates that they are preparing for continued weakness in demand.New multi-unit construction will continue to focus on rental units.This is mainly because of supportive policies and continued developer interest.However,market intelligence suggests that it is a challeng

80、e to lease units at higher rent levels while facing rising land prices.This will likely reduce feasibility even in the City of Vancouver.Rising inventory and limited presales have stalled condominium projects in recent months with developers taking out more inventory loans for existing developments.

81、While more resales and lower mortgage rates will help with some of these concerns,developers will continue to find it difficult to build new condominium projects closer to the city centre.This is due to lower demand for presales at higher prices needed for project feasibility.The rental market will

82、continue to ease as changes to immigration policy are expected to reduce demand.We expect asking rents and rents of new units to have limited growth.They will likely remain stagnant as vacancies stay higher.Housing Market Outlook|February 202511VictoriaKey takeaways Resales will continue to increase

83、 in 2025 following the turnaround at the end of 2024.Price growth will recover slightly with greater growth in 2026.New construction will increase in 2025 but will stay relatively flat in 2026 and 2027 as the sales market recovers and unsold inventory is absorbed.The rental market is expected to mai

84、ntain higher vacancies with large flows of incoming supply expected in 2025 and 2026.Victoria will see higher demand in the resale market in 2025,building on signs of stronger activity materializing in 2024.Victorias economy is supported by a large public sector,resulting in a more stable economy an

85、d consistently low unemployment.Like in Vancouver,lower mortgage rates will be a key driver in supporting resale activity in Victoria.We expect resales to rise mostly in 2025 with slower sales growth in 2026 and 2027.At the same time,price growth will return to the market,slightly lagging behind Van

86、couver.Single-detached home sales will benefit from expanded purchasing power and changes to the mortgage insurance price limit from$1 million to$1.5 million.Many recently sold single-detached homes fall within that range.Rebounding single-detached sales will lead to higher starts of that type,which

87、 will temporarily reverse the downward trend.However,we expect single-detached construction to remain historically low.On the other hand,multi-unit construction will remain prominent and continue to grow,supported by an increasing shift toward rental units.We expect a continued concentration of both

88、 rental and condominium apartment development in Langford,where land is relatively more available.The rental market will continue to see higher vacancies in 2025 and further into the forecast horizon.Expanding rental supply from record-high construction will drive this increase in vacancy rates.Howe

89、ver,high rents in new projects may contribute to difficulties in leasing.Some future projects closer to the downtown core have planned rents comparable to those of similar units in Vancouver.Forecast Summary(Vancouver CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Si

90、ngle-Detached3,3922,8322,1762,2602,7001,8802,6001,6702,670Multiples22,59130,41225,93623,14028,60022,52027,50023,23028,230Starts Total25,98333,24428,11225,40031,30024,40030,10024,90030,900Resale MarketMLS Sales38,85235,87835,394(F)31,50047,00031,50048,00033,20049,800MLS Average Price($)1,237,0981,212

91、,925 1,234,207(F)1,213,000 1,375,000 1,243,000 1,473,000 1,262,000 1,563,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)0.90.91.62.12.42.9Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)2,0022,1812,3142,4612,6052,758Source:Greater Vancouver REALTORS,Fraser Valley Real Estate Board,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based

92、on information available as of January 14,2025.Housing Market Outlook|February 202512Forecast Summary(Victoria CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached679385298310490280620210680Multiples4,1084,6073,8873,6803,8503,6703,9303,6203,980Starts Total4

93、,7874,9924,1853,9904,3403,9504,5503,8304,660Resale MarketMLS Sales6,4995,9346,612(F)6,3207,7206,0208,9305,60010,200MLS Average Price($)930,778960,696972,420(F)918,800 1,050,300888,200 1,153,000843,000 1,285,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)1.51.62.63.13.43.5Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,6991,8391,9932

94、,1782,3442,519Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Housing Market Outlook|February 202513Prairies MarketsEdmonton,Calgary,Regina,Saskatoon,WinnipegRegional overview4 https:/www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/n

95、ews/2024/10/20252027-immigration-levels-plan.htmlPopulation growth in the Prairie markets will diminish,slowing growth in demand for housingPopulation growth has been rapid in the Prairie markets in recent years,especially in Alberta.Domestic and international in-migration has been driven in part by

96、 the attractiveness of the more affordable housing in the Prairie markets.Recent changes in immigration policy4 will slow growth across the Prairie markets.Non-permanent-resident(NPR)admissions and immigration are expected to decline across the Prairies but are unlikely to be as negatively impacted

97、as in British Columbia(B.C.)or Ontario.NPRs in Prairie markets currently make up near or less than 5%of the population,the national threshold set out in Immigration,Refugees and Citizenship Canadas Immigration Levels Plan.Figure1:Prairie population growth has been less dependent on NPRs&should be le

98、ss impacted by policy changesNPRs as a percent of total population,July 1st 2024 We expect Alberta to continue to see growth from interprovincial migration,which has been strong recently especially from more expensive centers in B.C.and Ontario.0123456789British ColumbiaOntarioManitobaAlbertaSaskatc

99、hewanCanadaSource:Statistics Canada Tables 17-10-0005 and 17-10-0158,CMHC calculations10%Housing Market Outlook|February 202514Figure2:Relative affordability in the Prairie markets will support continued migration MLS average sale prices relative to those of Toronto CMAEmployment hasnt kept up with

100、labour force growthLabour markets have been mixed across the Prairie markets in the second half of 2024.Population growth has led to rapid expansion of the labour force but employment hasnt matched the pace.Unemployment remains high compared to last year.Saskatoon is the exception,where full-time em

101、ployment has remained remarkably strong and unemployment low.Job growth looks to be accelerating in recent months in Calgary and Edmonton,which will typically contribute to demand for housing(either ownership or rental).0.20.40.60.81.01.2WinnipegSaskatoonReginaCalgaryEdmonton202420222020201820162014

102、2012201020082006200420022000Source:Canada Real Estate Association MLSHousing Market Outlook|February 202515Figure3:Labour force growth has driven strong growth in both employment and unemployment in most Prairie markets but Saskatoon has been a notable outperformerYear-to-year percent change by labo

103、ur force component,2023 to 2024Resale markets are expected to remain active across the Prairies,with competition among buyers putting upward pressure on pricesWhile sales have declined from pandemic highs in 2021 across the Prairie markets,they remain quite elevated on a historical basis(except in W

104、innipeg).Declining mortgage interest rates raised borrowing capacity for potential buyers in 2024,encouraging some to return to the market.Between buyers returning to the market and strong population and household growth,activity was strong in 2024 after a weaker 2023.Despite slowing population grow

105、th in 2025 and 2026,we expect demand to remain strong overall and sales to remain elevated or to increase slightly.Tight markets will put upward pressure on prices early in the forecast.We expect the market to move toward greater balance and more modest price appreciation close to the end of the for

106、ecast period.Activity in the more expensive single-detached segment had lessened as borrowing capacity declined.With some reversal of this decline,we expect greater activity in this segment.Price and rent growth,along with policies and programs,will support new construction but uncertainty may make

107、developers more cautiousIn Calgary and Edmonton,where starts are quite high,we expect starts to decline modestly over the forecast horizon.In Regina,Saskatoon and Winnipeg,however,we expect growth.Recent growth in both prices and rents provide support to new housing development across the Prairie ma

108、rkets,especially in Calgary and Edmonton.Regulatory and policy changes are aligned to support this increase.We expect single-detached homes to remain a smaller part of new home construction over the long term.However,in the short term,some recovery in demand for this housing type may support constru

109、ction.-50510152025303540CanadaWinnipegSaskatoonReginaCalgaryEdmontonNot in labour forceUnemploymentPart-time employmentFull-time employmentLabour force%Source:Statistics Canada Tables 14-10-0385 and 14-10-0393Housing Market Outlook|February 202516Rental housing has driven most of the recent growth i

110、n starts across the Prairie markets,supported by federal programs.The 2024 Rental Market Survey5 showed a surge in new rental stock and vacancy rates in markets across the country,most significantly so in Calgary.While the overall outlook for rental housing development remains positive,between highe

111、r vacancies and uncertainty regarding demand,we expect developers to show some caution.5 https:/www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-reports-major-centresA continued influx of new rental supply will reduce pressure on rentsWith a large stoc

112、k of rental housing under construction,we expect a great deal of it to come into the market over the forecast horizon,especially in 2025 and 2026.With increasing supply and slowing demand growth,we expect vacancy rates to increase in 2025 and 2026,following jumps in 2024,as landlords work to lease-u

113、p new buildings.Figure4:Rent growth will slow to rates more typical of the expected rise in vacancy ratesVacancy rate and%change in average rents,2-bedroom purpose-built rental units,1990-2024EdmontonReginaSaskatoonWinnipeg-10-50510152025024681012Rent growth%Vacancy rate%Calgary2024Historical relati

114、onshipSource:CMHC Rental Market SurveyHousing Market Outlook|February 202517The pressure that has led to strong rent growth across the Prairie markets in recent years will lessen but new rental units will continue to command higher rents and contribute to modest rent growth.Uncertainty will be great

115、er than usualTariffs pose a risk to the economy,perhaps more strongly so in Alberta and Saskatchewan among Prairie markets.If the suggested 25%tariffs were to be applied,they could have huge implications for Prairie economies and housing markets.If population growth were to be sustained in the Prair

116、ie markets due to relative affordability and lower shares of NPRs,particularly in Calgary and Edmonton,demand growth could remain high.Conversely,if the“push”factors in markets like Vancouver and Toronto were to diminish and interprovincial flows were to shift and further reduce population growth in

117、 the Prairies,we could see weaker demand growth.These factors will likely impact vacancy rates and rents most strongly in the short term.The oil and gas sector is a significant driver of Prairie economies.Oil prices are expected to fall slightly owing to weaker global demand and reversals in supply

118、cuts.Weaker performance in the oil and gas sector(possibly due to tariffs)is a significant downside risk to the outlook for Prairie markets,especially in Calgary and Edmonton.HIGHLIGHTSEdmontonKey takeaways We expect sustained demand from population growth and increased borrowing capacity to keep th

119、e Edmonton resale market active and to support price growth.Price growth and aligned programs and policies will support strong starts but uncertainty is expected to lead to some caution.Growth in the rental stock will contribute to a gradual increase in vacancy rates,slowing rent growth over the for

120、ecast horizon.Despite recent rent and price growth in Edmonton,this city remains one of the most affordable of Canadas largest urban centres.Edmonton will remain an attractive option for international and internal migrants,even as international in-migration slows nationally.We expect the resale mark

121、et in Edmonton to remain quite active in 2025,following a very busy 2024.A tight resale market will contribute to price growth over the forecast horizon,tapering towards 2027 as the market returns to more balanced conditions.New construction increased strongly in Edmonton in 2024,surpassing the prev

122、ious record from 2015.We expect some hesitancy from developers in the face of slowing demand and high vacancy rates.A high(though declining)level of construction will be supported by sustained price and rent growth,as well as by local policies and programs:The City of Edmonton approved shovel-ready

123、development sites for affordable housing and introduced an automated development permit review process to expedite housing approvals.The Infill Infrastructure Fund covers up to$4 million of shared public infrastructure costs for multi-housing developments in existing neighbourhoods.It supports both

124、market and non-market projects.Single-detached housing remains a major source of starts in Edmonton.High levels of completed and unabsorbed inventories may weigh on single-detached starts but builders in Edmonton havent been especially sensitive to growing inventory in the past,particularly in the f

125、ace of sustained demand.We expect strong growth in the rental stock,a gradual increase in the vacancy rate and slowing growth in rents.CalgaryKey takeaways Surging population growth will slow but we expect Calgary to continue to receive inter-urban migration from more expensive centers like Vancouve

126、r and Toronto.After record-breaking years,new construction is expected to moderate slightly.Strong fundamentals are counterbalanced by uncertainty and the expectation of a loosening rental market.Vacancy rates are expected to rise as new purpose-built housing supply grows beyond slowing demand.This

127、shift is likely to ease rent growth pressures as landlords compete to fill new buildings.Housing Market Outlook|February 202518Calgarys strong population growth in recent years is expected to slow as federal policies impact international migration.However,Calgarys recent growth has been supported al

128、so by strong interprovincial migration led by migrants from Toronto and Vancouver.Even with the higher price growth forecasted,Calgary will remain an attractive option for prospective internal(and international)migrants who are looking for a cosmopolitan urban centre with more affordable housing.We

129、expect Calgarys resale market to see a slight increase in activity in 2025 after remaining flat between 2023 and 2024.We anticipate sustained demand supported by increases in borrowing capacity and continued(though diminished)demographic and economic growth.Sales will be restrained by limited listin

130、gs,though this is expected to ease and lead to more balanced market conditions over the forecast horizon.Calgary hit a record-high level of new construction in 2024 for the third year in a row.Recent and expected price growth and reduced financing costs will support elevated construction levels,as w

131、ill supportive policy.Among supportive policy changes is the approval in November 2024 of adjustments to Calgarys service plan and budget to support investments in housing,land use and local planning.This funding will support the development of new communities to increase the housing supply and help

132、 with redevelopment in older neighbourhoods.We expect slowing growth in demand and recent effects of large increases in supply(including elevated vacancy rates)to lead to some caution from developers and a slowdown in new construction.Calgary saw an unprecedented increase of roughly 10%in the purpos

133、e-built rental stock in 2024,according to CMHCs Rental Market Survey6.Along with this increase came a notable uptick in the vacancy rate,which jumped from 1.4%in 2023 to 4.8%in 2024.We expect growth in the stock to continue along with increases to the vacancy rate and slowing growth in rents.6 https

134、:/www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-reports-major-centresElevated vacancy rates and slower rent growth may lead to fewer condominiums being used as rentals,especially with demand in the resale market.ReginaKey takeaways We expect stable

135、resale market activity and moderate growth in prices in Regina,with limited listings restraining sales.Single-detached starts are expected to lead overall growth in starts,as demand in this segment picks up after years of lower supply.We expect vacancy rates to increase slightly but an overall tight

136、 rental market will support rent growth.Labour force growth in Regina has come from part-time employment and unemployment,while full-time employment has declined.Activity in the resale market was strong in Regina in 2024,with sales near pandemic highs.Tightening in the resale market led to significa

137、nt price growth after modest declines in 2023.We expect stable or slightly increasing buyer activity to support further price growth,generally in line with recent trends.Limited listings will keep sales from increasing more rapidly.Starts are expected to increase in Regina over the forecast horizon.

138、Single-detached starts are expected to be a source of growth in new construction,as demand in this segment returns with increased borrowing capacity.With a growing emphasis on multi-family construction in Regina,the supply of new single-detached homes hasnt kept pace with demand.A low inventory of c

139、ompleted and unabsorbed units will support increasing new construction in Regina.We expect increases in the rental stock and vacancy rate.The forecasted vacancy rates remain below the elevated levels of 2015 to 2021 and the rental market remains tight.We expect reasonably strong rent growth in 2025,

140、slowing in 2026 and 2027.Housing Market Outlook|February 202519SaskatoonKey takeaways We expect a relatively strong local economy to continue to support demand in 2025 and contribute to price growth after an active 2024.Rising prices and rents will encourage new construction,which will also be suppo

141、rted by low and declining unabsorbed inventories.Persistently low vacancy rates are expected to support rent growth but new supply will contribute to loosening rental markets over the forecast horizon.Saskatoons labour market has done extremely well in incorporating new labour force participants.It

142、has seen high growth in the labour force being matched by high growth in full-time employment.Saskatoons unemployment rate has risen less than in other markets.Meanwhile,its youth unemployment rate has declined reasonably quickly after having increased at the start of the year.Saskatoons economy has

143、 been buoyed by large investments.Projects coming online over the forecast horizon(like the Jansen potash mine)are expected to keep the local economy strong.Sales activity in Saskatoon reached an historical high in 2024,surpassed only by the pandemic peak in 2021.This elevated activity contributed t

144、o a tight resale market.We expect continued demand to contribute to elevated sales and tight resale market conditions,which will support price growth through the forecast horizon.Rising prices and rents will encourage elevated levels of new construction in Saskatoon.The rental market remains tight a

145、nd we expect rental housing to continue to lead new construction.Low and declining levels of unabsorbed inventories(in single-and multi-unit properties)will also support new construction.Strong employment gains and international migration are expected to support rental demand in the near term.This i

146、s expected to keep vacancy rates low in Saskatoon in 2025.We expect gradual increases in the vacancy rate in 2026 and 2027 as more new rental stock comes online.With persistently low vacancy rates,we expect strong rent growth in 2025,with the pace of growth tapering over 2026 and 2027.WinnipegKey ta

147、keaways Winnipeg,a typically steady market,is expected to see gradual growth in sales,prices and new construction.We expect vacancy rates to increase slowly but to remain below historical averages.This will contribute to strong rent growth in 2025 that will diminish in 2026 and 2027.Recent data for

148、Manitoba shows Non-permanent-resident(NPR)permits flattening or even declining slightly through the later part of 2024,with net outflows of study permit holders.Winnipegs labour market has performed reasonably well over 2024.Full-time and part-time employment have posted gains but the number of unem

149、ployed also increased over 2024.In contrast to other Prairie markets,in 2023,sales in Winnipeg fell to pre-pandemic levels.We expect sales in Winnipeg to return to a modest but steady growth trend over the forecast horizon.Price growth will continue to be slower in Winnipeg than in other Prairie mar

150、kets.Winnipeg has relatively little year-to-year volatility in new construction,with this type of construction generally following a consistent upward trend.Over the forecast horizon,we expect stable growth in starts to be led by purpose-built rental starts,as in recent years.This will be supported

151、by growing rents,low vacancy rates and supportive policies and programs.Continued government funding in 2025,as well as the 2024 removal of provincial sales taxes on new rental housing and the absence of rent controls on newly constructed units will be factors supporting new rental development.In co

152、ntrast,single-detached construction will continue the trend of a slow decline in favour of multi-family housing construction over the medium-to-long term.While new purpose-built rental supply was added at a historically fast pace in 2024,vacancy rates remained stubbornly low in Winnipeg.We expect th

153、at the vacancy rate will increase gradually over the forecast horizon to 2027 but that it will remain below historical averages.We expect reasonably strong rent growth in 2025,which will diminish through the later part of the forecast.Housing Market Outlook|February 202520Forecast Summary(Edmonton C

154、MA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached6,1735,0326,9765,5008,0005,0008,0005,0008,500Multiples8,4138,15211,4088,50011,5007,00012,0007,00011,500Starts Total14,58613,18418,38414,00019,50012,00020,00012,00020,000Resale MarketMLS Sales27,00624,72630,

155、482(F)26,00032,00025,00031,00025,00031,000MLS Average Price($)403,920389,033422,659(F)420,000460,000420,000470,000410,000480,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)4.32.43.13.84.75.1Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,3041,3981,5361,6371,6561,672Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on

156、 information available as of January 14,2025.Forecast Summary(Calgary CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached5,7525,8757,1005,5007,5005,0008,0005,0007,500Multiples11,55413,70417,26913,50016,50012,50016,00012,00016,000Starts Total17,30619,57924,

157、36919,00024,00017,50024,00017,00023,500Resale MarketMLS Sales38,69434,79934,651(F)32,00038,00030,00038,00028,00039,000MLS Average Price($)530,461550,375620,500(F)620,000670,000610,000680,000600,000690,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)2.71.44.85.85.74.8Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,4661,6951,8821,9621,

158、9771,982Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Housing Market Outlook|February 202521Forecast Summary(Regina CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached3212142882504001755757

159、5725Multiples6169639358001,1506751,3754751,625Starts Total9371,1771,2231,0501,5508501,9505502,350Resale MarketMLS Sales4,2664,0694,560(F)4,3505,2504,4505,4504,5005,600MLS Average Price($)322,408312,207332,069(F)330,000370,000329,000411,000322,000448,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)3.21.42.63.23.43.4A

160、verage Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,1861,3011,4151,5251,6001,675Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Forecast Summary(Saskatoon CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached91378697

161、78001,1007501,2506751,325Multiples1,7461,8621,6791,5252,2751,5502,6501,4502,850Starts Total2,6592,6482,6562,3253,3752,3003,9002,1254,175Resale MarketMLS Sales6,3576,2876,592(F)6,2507,5506,5508,1506,6508,450MLS Average Price($)356,277359,626383,645(F)389,000431,000384,000480,000370,000522,000Rental M

162、arketVacancy rate(%)3.42.02.02.02.22.4Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,2431,3601,4711,5751,6751,775Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Housing Market Outlook|February 202522Forecast Summary(Winnipeg CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)20

163、2220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached1,9271,4251,4341,1001,6001,0001,7008501,800Multiples3,9434,0293,8873,8004,1003,7504,3503,7004,650Starts Total5,8705,4545,1514,9005,7004,7006,0004,5506,400Resale MarketMLS Sales13,59412,00513,383(F)12,10015,80011,50016,50011,90017,20

164、0MLS Average Price($)380,700368,325384,931(F)401,800423,100378,500444,900347,000455,900Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)2.71.81.71.81.92.1Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,3501,4271,5071,5701,6301,680Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2

165、025.Housing Market Outlook|February 202523Central MarketsGreater Toronto Area,Hamilton,Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo,London,St.Catharines-Niagara,WindsorRegional overview7 References to Ontarios central housing markets mean the Toronto,Oshawa,Hamilton,Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo,London,St.Catharines

166、-Niagara and Windsor census metropolitan areas(CMAs).Housing starts to decline for the fourth year in a rowTotal housing starts in Ontarios central markets7 are expected to decline in 2025.This is due to condominium apartment starts falling further because of the lagged impact of elevated financing

167、rates.Weak past demand has reduced condominium apartment starts,with fewer land deals,project launches and pre-construction sales in the past 2years.This trend is particularly evident in the regions of the Greater Toronto Area(GTA),Hamilton and Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo.According to our estimates

168、,Ontarios central markets are short of housing,providing some tailwind to new construction.Despite the inherent demand for new housing,financing new housing remains a key obstacle.We see conditions for new home building becoming more favourable for developers.That said,apartment starts are unlikely

169、to rise immediately,considering their long development timelines.We see the number of apartment starts stabilizing in 2026 and then increasing in 2027.Offsetting this years decline in condominium apartment starts will be robust purpose-built rental apartment starts.Government initiatives to address

170、housing shortages will kick-start thousands of new market and affordable rental homes in the next year.Meanwhile,recent provincial legislation aims to streamline building processes.As we move further into 2026,our outlook for rental apartment starts will be checked by the following:Developers appear

171、 cautious,evidenced by the fact that there arent many high-rise land deals happening.Increasing vacancies and stagnant rent growth will discourage new supply.Market intelligence indicates fewer rental projects in the ideation stage,which will slow rental starts in the later part of our forecast peri

172、od.We expect more buyers to look for new single-detached and row homes because of long-standing shortages in the resale market.These types of homes will more quickly respond to the recent fall in mortgage rates,as well as further household formation and income growth.However,we dont expect a signifi

173、cant increase over previous years,owing to their high price tag and limited serviced land.Regional variations influence our outlook,with the London and Windsor census metropolitan areas(CMAs)expected to outperform thanks to better affordability and land availability.Housing Market Outlook|February 2

174、02524Economic challenges seen over the past year will diminish,benefiting resale markets Ontarios economic and labour market conditions softened in the past 2years.In 2025,we expect a rebound in Ontarios economic growth and more supportive mortgage rates to breathe some life into local resale market

175、s.The number of existing home sales in 2024 was well below its 10-year average(Figure1).Elevated mortgage rates have been particularly challenging for Ontarios central markets,which are more sensitive to interest rate changes.Transactions ramped up in the fall as a result of a steady drop in mortgag

176、e rates and slightly lower home prices that enticed buyers.As we move into 2025,MLS sales are expected to increase.The previous strength in income and population growth,and less burdensome mortgage rates,will help offset poor affordability conditions.Employment growth will provide additional support

177、 for housing demand.Figure1:There is plenty of upside potential for existing home salesRatio of MLS sales-to-population,annual periods,Ontario0.00.51.01.510-year Average2.0%10-year averageMLS sales-to-populationSources:CREA,Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0005,CMHC calculations2025(F)20242023202220212

178、02020192018201720162015Housing Market Outlook|February 202525Sales growth in the GTA is expected to be stronger compared to nearby CMAs.Market intelligence indicates fewer buyers from the GTA are looking to move out.This is mainly due to return-to-office mandates.This,in addition to fewer employment

179、 opportunities in cities outside the GTA,suggests these regions are likely to experience comparatively smaller increases in sales activity.More first-time homebuyers to enter the market in 2025First-time homebuyers in Ontarios central markets will be encouraged by changes to insured mortgage rules.B

180、ecause homes in these markets are generally expensive,its more likely that buyers in these markets will benefit more from increased access to lower down payments and longer amortizations,especially in the GTA.However,sales numbers are likely to be tempered by several factors:The absolute level of mo

181、rtgage rates is still quite high and would likely discourage many prospective buyers.Many existing homeowners are likely to focus on saving to improve their finances,leading to a slower recovery in transactions.This is because many will renew their mortgages this year and anticipate higher payments.

182、Investors will be dissuaded by low expected returns,especially in the rented condominium market.Weak consumer confidence readings indicate home purchases could remain lower than historical averages.With an economy still operating below potential,persistently poor affordability and fewer investors,it

183、 will be harder for sales to return to the stronger levels implied by demographics.Despite these issues,we expect the market to be stable in 2026 and 2027.Improved market conditions will boost prices,led by ground-oriented homesThis year,there will be renewed upward pressure on the MLS average price

184、.The improvement in market conditions seen at the end of 2024 supports this view.Moving into 2025,demand fundamentals such as income and household formation will help to ensure prices grow.However,the pressure on prices will be mild.This is because demand will be driven more by first-time homebuyers

185、 and elevated mortgage rates will squeeze affordability.We expect price growth to be greater for family-sized homes.This will be driven by a strong demand from young families and a limited supply of larger homes from new construction.This will result in tighter market conditions in this segment.Over

186、all,market conditions will remain balanced,but are anticipated to be softer for condominium apartments due to high inventories in the largest urban centres(Figure2).The number of active listings continued to be high compared to previous years.Figure2:Prospective GTA buyers have a well-stocked market

187、 with plenty of options Active listings,December periods,Greater Toronto Area02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000Condominium apartmentsGround-oriented dwellings(detached,semi-detached,row)2024202320222021202020192018201720162015Source:TRREB,CMHC calculationsHousing Market Outlook|February 2

188、02526We expect new listings to grow enough to counteract growing demand because of the following:Investors facing challenges with cash-flow-negative rental properties due to higher mortgage rates will list more properties.More homeowners will consider moving as their low mortgage rates expire,reduci

189、ng their disincentive to move,thus bringing more listings.A high level of condominium apartments under construction will add to supply.Greater supply and declines in the temporary resident population to rebalance the rental marketAfter 2years of acceleration,primary-market rent growth slowed in 2024

190、,owing to increased vacancy rates.This year,we expect strong growth in rental supply and weaker renter household formation to further slow down rent growth.Rental demand in Ontarios central markets is vulnerable to recent changes to immigration targets(Figure3).The planned reduction in the non-perma

191、nent resident population is resulting in far fewer international student arrivals.Our regional market intelligence suggests that landlords in areas near post-secondary institutions found it harder to fill vacant units this past fall.The rental markets performance will vary by market.Select metropoli

192、tan areas in Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Golden Horseshoe could see greater downward pressure on rental demand.This is because they relied more heavily on non-permanent residents for population growth.Figure3:Ontario faces the prospect of strong outflows of non-permanent residentsNon-perman

193、ent resident outflows,third quarter periods,select provinces020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000Q3 2024Q3 2023Q3 2022British Columbia Alberta Ontario Qubec Source:Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0040-01Housing Market Outlook|February 202527Risks to the outlookKnown upside risks to the forecast incl

194、ude:Higher-than-expected pent-up homeownership demand and a more acute shortage of housing.This may be driven by past episodes of high population and income growth,prompting more first-time homebuyers to enter the market.Lower-than-expected mortgage rates due to the central bank signaling more polic

195、y-rate cuts,driven by soft employment and inflation data.Further supply-side policy changes that lead to housing starts exceeding predictions.Known downside risks to the forecast include:Lower-than-expected population growth.International migration is a major source of demand in Ontarios central mar

196、kets.Further changes in immigration policy,or delayed effects of existing policy,could have greater negative impacts than forecasted.Persistently high mortgage rates coupled with households prioritizing saving.Mortgage arrears8 in the most expensive housing markets are expected to increase.This coul

197、d result in greater-than-expected supply,as strained borrowers seek to repair their balance sheets by selling property.Greater trade protectionism threatening the outlook for Ontarios export activity,which could result in less economic growth.HIGHLIGHTSGreater Toronto AreaKey takeaways Total housing

198、 starts will decline due to fewer apartment starts,as low demand for new condominiums takes hold.MLS sales and the average price are expected to increase due to pent-up demand,but growth will be limited by fewer investors and affordability challenges faced by first-time homebuyers.The rental vacancy

199、 rate will increase as supply outpaces demand,leading to rent growth below the 10-year average in 2025 and 2026.Housing starts in the Greater Toronto Area(GTA)will be driven lower by declines in the condominium apartment segment this year.High development costs and weak 8 https:/www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/

200、blog/2024/analysis-canadian-residential-mortgage-marketdemand point to fewer apartment starts.Detached home starts are expected to decline slightly in 2025,with a modest uptick anticipated in 2026 and 2027 due to lower mortgage rates and more accommodative mortgage rules.The overall decline in start

201、s masks our expectation for higher purpose-built rental apartment starts this year.Yet,even in this segment,sentiment among developers remains weak.Local market intelligence suggests many rental projects in the GTA arent viable at current rents and would require property taxes and development charge

202、s to be waived,along with the current HST waiver.The share of apartment starts in the GTA made up by the 905(the area code denoting the regions suburbs)is likely to continue at higher levels than history due to that areas cost advantage over the 416(the urban core).Ground-oriented starts(detached,se

203、mi-detached and row homes)will continue to feature more prominently in the 905 due to the 416 having limited and costly land,greater population density,as well as land-use planning measures favouring denser housing types.Following 3years of very low sales volumes,pent-up demand is expected to increa

204、se MLS sales in 2025,aided by ample choice,lower prices and new insured mortgage rules.However,investors are unlikely to return to the market as they wont see rates low enough to make up for significant negative cash flow positions.Fewer investors and persistent affordability challenges will hold ML

205、S sales below their 10-year average.The MLS average price is projected to rise slightly in 2025 due to increased borrowing capacity but high supply and cautious buyers will keep growth contained.Ground-oriented homes are expected to see higher prices due to greater pent-up demand while condominium p

206、rices will likely face continued downward pressure.We expect price growth in the GTA to remain in the single-digit range through 2027,with potential escalation near the end of the forecast horizon due to limited new construction of all home types.The purpose-built rental apartment vacancy rate is ex

207、pected to rise in 2025 and 2026 due to higher levels of condominium and purpose-built rental completions,along with weaker demand and a higher unemployment rate.Following record-low rental turnover in 2024,some GTA renters should transition to homeownership,further increasing vacancy rates.We expect

208、 below-average growth in the average 2-bedroom rent,allowing incomes to catch up and more renters to enter the market by 2027.Housing Market Outlook|February 202528HamiltonKey takeaways Housing starts are expected to recover slowly after falling to a near decade-low in 2024.Favourable buying conditi

209、ons will lead to more demand in 2025 and beyond.The vacancy rate will rise in 2025 because of higher rental completions and weakening migration.Single-detached starts in 2025 will be higher and will remain flat over the rest of the forecast period.Housing starts have consisted mostly of multi-family

210、 units in recent years but single-detached starts should get a boost from recent mortgage rule changes.Multi-unit starts will grow slightly in 2025 but housing supply shortages will encourage more multi-unit starts in the second half of 2026 and in 2027.Reduced migration,weak demand for condominiums

211、 and many rental completions will constrain apartment starts in 2025.Market intelligence suggests that developers believe this slowdown is only temporary.In the second half of 2026 and in 2027,declining completions and a rebound in population growth should encourage apartment starts again.The foreca

212、st for the Hamilton CMA resale market in 2025 shows a positive trend in MLS sales.This trend will continue into 2026 and 2027,although at a slower pace.Changes to insured mortgage rules will make the market more accessible,particularly to first-time homebuyers.These favourable conditions will persis

213、t and the current economic uncertainty thats been holding back some buyers should dissipate by 2026 and 2027.The MLS average price will rise due to higher demand but this growth will be tempered by high levels of inventory.The supply side of the market will constrain price growth,as for-sale invento

214、ry in Hamilton is above its 10-year average.The purpose-built rental market vacancy rate will increase in 2026 before moderating in 2027.This is because of an expected record level of completions and weaker demand due to lower international migration,particularly among international students.Rent gr

215、owth will be positive but marginal in all 3years,limited by high supply and weakening demand.Kitchener-Cambridge-WaterlooKey takeaways After a weak 2024,housing starts are expected to see a notable increase driven by rental apartments and household income growth.MLS sales will rise as local economic

216、 growth supports demand.The vacancy rate is expected to rise as demand from international students slows.In 2025,total housing starts in the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo(KCW)CMA are expected to rise after sluggish activity in 2024.This increase will be driven by multi-unit starts,as the development

217、pipeline in KCW indicates there will be more purpose-built rental starts.This reflects a shift in developer focus away from condominiums encouraged by recent policy initiatives to encourage supply.New condominium sales are weak in KCW,with declining investor activity and increasing unsold inventorie

218、s.Many investors face negative cash flow and stagnant prices,which will lead to fewer starts in this segment.Single-detached starts will increase marginally,with the increase being driven by pent-up demand.KCW will remain attractive because of its relative affordability.MLS home sales are projected

219、to rise modestly in 2025.The KCW region continues to thrive largely because of its expanding technology sector,which remains a key source of housing demand and employment.Additionally,the rise of remote work has reshaped homebuyers preferences,with many seeking properties that support work-from-home

220、 lifestyles,further supporting the housing market.The MLS average price is expected to see a moderate increase this year.The market will tighten with rising sales leading to increased competition and higher prices.The demand for single-detached homes will be a key driver of this price growth while t

221、he condominium market will remain soft due to less investor interest.The purpose-built rental apartment vacancy rate is expected to increase in 2025.This is because of the increase in rental completions and reduced demand from fewer international students.As a result,the average rent for a 2-bedroom

222、 apartment is forecasted to rise at a slower pace.Rents will still grow because of rising operating costs and strong demand,due to affordability pressures in homeownership.Housing Market Outlook|February 202529LondonKey takeaways Fewer housing starts are expected in 2025 as developers focus on the h

223、igh number of projects under construction.MLS sales and the MLS average price are expected to rise through 2027,though high inventory levels will moderate price growth.The vacancy rate for purpose-built rental apartments is expected to rise due to record completions and weaker demand.In 2025,total h

224、ousing starts in the London CMA will decline from their high levels in the previous year.This is mainly due to fewer rental apartment starts,as developers focus on completing the large number of projects started in 2024.Lower migration to London will discourage starts but housing supply shortages wi

225、ll renew growth in 2026 and 2027.Single-detached starts will increase but remain below historical levels,with marginal growth in 2026 and 2027 because of strengthening population and incomes.MLS existing home sales are expected to be higher this year,with continued growth in 2026 and 2027.This incre

226、ase will be driven by lower borrowing rates.The MLS average price will rise due to higher demand.However,this growth will be moderated by high inventory levels.These levels will reduce bidding pressure.The purpose-built rental apartment vacancy rate will increase in 2025 due to many rental completio

227、ns and weaker demand from fewer temporary residents.However,population growth and a slowdown in rental completions in the later part of our forecast will stabilize vacancies.The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment will continue to rise but will do so more slowly than in recent years.New units wit

228、h higher-than-average rents will raise the average.Increased supply in London will discourage landlords from implementing higher rent increases.St.Catharines-NiagaraKey takeaways Total housing starts are expected to recover due to greater demand for new ground-oriented homes.MLS sales are forecast t

229、o grow as intraprovincial migration and economic activity bolster demand.Housing starts are expected to rise in the St.Catharines-Niagara CMA in 2025.Multi-unit starts will increase,driven by improved affordability and market optimism.Single-detached starts will also increase,ranging from 700 to 850

230、 units this year.This growth is supported by lower interest rates and stronger demand from intraprovincial migration.The region has experienced modest economic growth,a drop from elevated unemployment levels and sustained population growth through migration.Average household income has increased and

231、 continues to drive economic growth and housing activity.MLS sales are expected to increase moderately in 2025,continuing the upward trend that started in later 2024.This years increase will be driven by out-of-town buyer interest in the more affordable St.Catharines-Niagara market,which is composed

232、 primarily of single-detached homes.The MLS average price is projected to rise modestly in 2025.Below-average sales and higher existing-home inventories will reflect cautious buyers.Currently,many transactions in the St.Catharines-Niagara CMA involve price reductions or conditional sales,signaling m

233、arket conditions that have favoured buyers.In 2025,the average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment is expected to rise,with demand still driven by affordability pressures in homeownership.However,lower international student enrollment will soften demand,leading to higher vacancy rates in 2025.Additionall

234、y,the influx of new supply should moderate the upward trend of rents.As a result,rents should grow,but at a slower pace than in recent years.Housing Market Outlook|February 202530WindsorKey takeaways Housing starts will decline from last years multi-decade high due to fewer condominium apartment sta

235、rts.MLS sales are expected to increase as consumer confidence improves.Fewer international student enrollments will lead to a more balanced rental market.In 2025,we predict lower housing starts in the Windsor CMA,driven by fewer condominium apartment starts.This follows an exceptional year in 2024,w

236、here the City of Windsor was one of the first municipalities to surpass its provincial housing targets.The forecasted decline in 2025 will be balanced by increased single-detached,row and semi-detached starts.Additionally,we expect another year of robust rental apartment starts.Market conditions are

237、 likely to tighten,reflecting increased resale activity in the later part of 2025.This will put upward pressure on home prices that will continue into the first half of 2026.In the rental market,the average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment is forecast to increase more slowly in 2025.This reflects the

238、trend observed over the last 2years.Further rent increases are expected for newer units in Windsor.However,the average rent will stabilize and grow at a slower rate,especially in areas near universities and colleges.This is due to reduced demand from international students.In these same areas,market

239、 intelligence suggests that vacancy rates will continue to increase.Forecast Summary(Toronto CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached6,3294,7214,7234,1005,3004,3006,1004,3006,900Multiples38,78042,70732,99524,10028,70024,00030,00024,70032,300Star

240、ts Total45,10947,42837,71828,20034,00028,30036,10029,00039,200Resale MarketMLS Sales75,64366,31168,000(F)69,70086,30070,20097,80068,500107,500MLS Average Price($)1,190,9851,127,426 1,110,000(F)1,110,000 1,180,000 1,093,000 1,237,000 1,080,000 1,300,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)1.61.42.53.03.42.7Av

241、erage Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,7791,9611,9742,0002,0202,060Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Housing Market Outlook|February 202531Forecast Summary(Oshawa CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home Ma

242、rketStarts:Single-Detached927614425520620500800430970Multiples2,8481,2391,1666801,3801,2001,9001,2702,530Starts Total3,7751,8531,5911,2002,0001,7002,7001,7003,500Resale MarketMLS Sales9,4898,1018,700(F)9,20011,8008,80011,8008,90012,500MLS Average Price($)1,018,850929,848910,000(F)913,000987,000908,0

243、00 1,044,000900,000 1,100,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)2.61.53.64.04.23.5Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,4501,6131,6861,7201,7401,780Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Forecast Summary(Hamilton CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202

244、220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached821303416350450350500400600Multiples2,7093,3982,2112,2502,7502,4503,0002,5003,300Starts Total3,5303,7012,6272,6003,2002,8003,5002,9003,900Resale MarketMLS Sales11,0429,86310,050(F)10,10011,10010,90012,10011,60013,200MLS Average Price

245、($)964,091873,513889,000(F)890,000940,000900,000970,000920,000 1,000,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)1.92.12.42.83.03.0Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,4681,6171,6321,6701,7001,740Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Housing Mar

246、ket Outlook|February 202532Forecast Summary(Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached1,022850376450550500650500700Multiples3,8253,8623,0353,3504,1503,0004,0503,0504,350Starts Total4,8474,7123,4113,8004,7003,5004,7003,5505

247、,050Resale MarketMLS Sales8,0576,9077,100(F)7,0008,0007,5008,8007,7009,300MLS Average Price($)860,605791,691788,750(F)790,000850,000813,000903,000837,000957,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)1.22.13.63.83.94.1Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,4691,6581,7661,8812,0072,144Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts includ

248、ed in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Forecast Summary(London CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached1,268514564550750650850650900Multiples2,0931,6743,6072,0002,5002,0002,7002,1002,900Starts Total3,3612,18

249、84,1712,5503,2502,6503,5502,7503,800Resale MarketMLS Sales8,6477,4788,100(F)8,1008,9008,3009,3008,5009,700MLS Average Price($)728,214647,447642,400(F)649,000699,000652,000732,000665,000775,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)1.71.72.93.23.53.5Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,3931,4791,5481,6091,6401,680Sour

250、ce:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Housing Market Outlook|February 202533Forecast Summary(St.Catharines-Niagara CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached1,11491264870085075

251、09508001,050Multiples2,0541,8351,0951,3001,6501,4001,9001,4502,100Starts Total3,1682,7471,7432,0002,5002,1502,8502,2503,150Resale MarketMLS Sales6,0715,6395,900(F)6,0006,8006,1007,2006,2007,600MLS Average Price($)768,862684,515677,000(F)670,000730,000720,000800,000745,000845,000Rental MarketVacancy

252、rate(%)2.82.93.84.04.24.3Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,2581,3891,4741,5501,6801,780Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Forecast Summary(Windsor CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts

253、:Single-Detached780302486500600500700550750Multiples1,0109061,6711,0501,3507001,0007001,050Starts Total1,7901,2082,1571,5501,9501,2001,7001,2501,800Resale MarketMLS Sales6,2385,3075,500(F)5,6006,2005,8006,7006,1007,200MLS Average Price($)602,915546,144565,000(F)565,000615,000578,000648,000596,000686

254、,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)1.82.03.33.53.83.9Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,1741,2531,3871,4201,5001,550Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Housing Market Outlook|February 202534Main Eastern MarketsOttawa,Gatineau,Montr

255、al,Qubec and HalifaxRegional overviewHousing demand in Canadas eastern markets will remain strong in 2025 before losing momentum afterward Population growth will continue in 2025,but more slowly than in the last 2years.In Quebec,in particular,it has remained strong despite a slight slowdown in growt

256、h in the number of non-permanent residents in 2024(Figure1).These trends will continue into 2025.Household formation accounts for a significant share of housing demand,which will continue to increase in 2025.Employment rates should start rising again in 2025 in Quebec and Nova Scotia.Given the fairl

257、y robust job market,housing demand will remain strong in 2025.Figure1:Growth in the number of non-permanent residents in Quebec slowed slightly in 2024Quarterly estimate of the change in the number of non-permanent residents in Quebec-10,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000OtherWork and/or study

258、 permit holdersQ42024Q32024Q22024Q12024Q42023Q32023Q22023Q12023Q42022Q32022Q2 2022Q12022Q42021Source:Statistics Canada Table17-10-0121-01Housing Market Outlook|February 202535We then expect a decline in population following the moderate growth of 2025.Indeed,we believe it will take some time before

259、the announced immigration reductions have an effect on population levels.Population declines in most of the countrys eastern markets therefore wont be seen until 2026.Various recent government measures will contribute to this slowdown:The two-year federal cap on international student admissions(and

260、other restrictions)The Quebec governments planned reduction of immigration targetsThe Quebec government has said that it intends to reduce the number of international students as early as the start of the 2025 academic year.It has already put some immigration programs on hold in 2024.We therefore ex

261、pect that growth in housing demand on the rental market will start to decline in some regions starting in 2026.Eastern rental markets will remain under pressure in 2025 but will ease slightly starting in 2026A slight increase in vacancy rates is expected in most eastern markets in 2025.The rental ma

262、rket will nevertheless remain under pressure because of sustained demand and the scarcity of vacant units(Figure2).Strong competition between potential renters will continue because demand will remain high.In 2025,rental demand will remain strong in several eastern markets.This is in part because ac

263、cess to homeownership will remain difficult.However,in some census metropolitan areas(CMAs),increased supply will cause the vacancy rate to grow slightly this year.Rental markets should then ease slightly with the sharp increase in supply and as immigration decreases.The increased number of vacant u

264、nits will reduce the pressure on rents to some degree.Rents in eastern markets will increase slightly less overall than in 2023 and 2024.Still,sustained demand for more affordable housing and the addition of thousands of new apartments(which tend to have higher rents)will keep an upward pressure on

265、rents.Figure2:Eastern rental markets will remain under pressure despite slower population growthVacancy rate(%),2025 forecast and 10-year average0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.510-year averageForecasts for 2025Ottawa-Gatineau CMA(Ontario portion)Ottawa-Gatineau CMA(Qubec portion)MontralCMA Qubec CMA Halifax

266、 CMA Source:CMHC2.52.52.01.02.9Housing Market Outlook|February 202536The rebound in housing starts that began in 2024 will continueFollowing weak levels in 2023,housing starts in several markets began to recover in 2024.Theyll continue to trend upward in most major eastern markets in 2025.Montral,in

267、 particular,saw an increase in housing starts in 2024.More stable construction costs and better financing conditions will encourage new construction projects in 2025.In Ottawa,however,growth in housing starts will level off in 2025.In the short term,housing starts in this CMA will remain at roughly

268、the same levels as in 2023 and 2024.Housing starts in Gatineau will decrease slightly in 2025.The limited capacity of some infrastructure and high vacancy rates for new rental units will slow construction.We expect that rental units will continue to account for most new construction in all eastern m

269、arkets.The need is great,developers are looking for opportunities,and several initiatives continue to support the creation of new rental units.Improved financing conditions will enable developers to carry out a number of rental housing projects.This trend will be supported by strong rent growth,low

270、vacancy rates,and ongoing initiatives that support densification.In some eastern markets,lower mortgage rates and rising household incomes should slightly boost new home construction(single-detached,semi-detached and row homes).However,the few available lots are still expensive,limiting low-density

271、construction.In addition,some municipalities are implementing regulations that promote density.In eastern Canada,the environment will remain favourable to investors in rental housing projects in 2025.This market momentum should then fade in 2026 and 2027 as mortgage rate cuts end and population grow

272、th slows down.We expect the condominium market to remain quite weak in all eastern markets,as few new projects have been announced.We expect sales growth to continue in 2025,supported by lower interest ratesIn the main eastern markets,lower interest rates put the residential resale market back on tr

273、ack in 2024.Thanks to lower inflation and interest rates,household borrowing capacity has begun to increase.This has stimulated the resale market.In this context,we expect sales growth to continue in 2025.In CMAs where sales didnt decline as much during the period of interest rate hikes,such as the

274、Qubec CMA,sales growth will be more moderate in 2025.Over the medium term,sales growth will be held back by slower population growth in all markets.Access to homeownership will remain difficult,especially in major centres.Sales and price increases should slow in 2026 and 2027.Prices will continue to

275、 rise in 2025,and will then stabilizeSales will increase a little faster than supply.Market conditions will therefore remain tight and support price growth.In 2025,the main eastern markets will record price increases similar to those seen in 2024.Over the rest of the forecast horizon,price growth wi

276、ll vary by market:In the most seller-friendly markets,Qubec and Montral,price increases will be pretty significant.Gatineau and Ottawa,whose markets are less tight,will see more moderate price growth.Halifax will have the lowest price increase(around 2%),due in particular to reduced interprovincial

277、immigration.We dont expect any significant increase in housing affordability in the eastern markets over the forecast horizon.Property prices will remain a barrier to homeownership for many households.Risks to the forecast The rental market could remain as tight as it was over the last 2years if the

278、 new immigration targets are met more slowly.In 2026 and 2027,the number of housing starts will be influenced by factors including the scope,nature and duration of any tariffs to be imposed by the UnitedStates.Depending on how these tariffs impact regional economies,employment may be affected to som

279、e degree,along with business and consumer confidence.Housing Market Outlook|February 202537HIGHLIGHTSOttawaKey takeaways After 2 consecutive years of declines,the number of housing starts in Ottawa will remain stable in 2025.The rental segment will continue to account for a growing share of new cons

280、truction.Row housing will continue to be popular.Population growth will slow to half that of the last 2years.As rental stock grows,the vacancy rate should rise slightly.The average rent will continue to rise.The increase will be due to persistently low vacancy rates and the arrival on the market of

281、new units with high rents.We expect population growth in Ottawa to slow starting in 2025 and to level off in 2026 and 2027.As a result of government initiatives,international immigration will decrease in the coming years.This slower population growth than in previous years,combined with the increase

282、 in rental stock,will lead to a slight increase in the vacancy rate.In this context,rent increases will slow from 2025 to 2027.However,the conditions wont be enough to bring about rent decreases.The increase in average rent will also be due to the arrival on the market of new units with high rents.I

283、n 2025,as mortgage rates decrease,sales should continue to grow in Ottawa,following the low reached in 2023.However,weak population growth,combined with the small inventory of properties for sale,will limit this growth.In a market relatively balanced between buyers and sellers,the modest price rebou

284、nd that began in 2024 is expected to continue this year.We expect housing starts to remain stable in Ottawa in 2025.The construction of multi-unit projects should slow somewhat,in part because of the high number of apartments under construction(Figure3).Most of these units are intended for the renta

285、l market,where the absorption of new units has recently slowed.This moderation in activity will encourage developers in this segment to be cautious.Meanwhile,starts of houses should be less affected by this slight slowdown,especially in more affordable segments(such as semi-detached or row houses).S

286、till,we expect housing starts to improve after 2025,in part due to a more favourable regulatory environment.Indeed,the City of Ottawa is increasingly favouring density,which could accelerate housing starts over the medium and long terms.Figure3:The substantial supply coming onto the market will limi

287、t housing starts in the Ottawa CMA in 2025Apartments under construction in the Ottawa CMA02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000Number of apartments under constructionSource:CMHC202420232025202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011Housing Market Outlook|February 202538GatineauKey takeaways Ho

288、using starts in Gatineau should decrease slightly in 2025,after a 2024 that was one of the best years since 2015.The decrease will be due in part to limited infrastructure capacity.In 2025,the residential resale market will continue with the momentum it first gained in 2024,driven by sustained stron

289、g demand.Rental demand is strong.The vacancy rate will remain low,although supply will increase as new housing developments are completed.After recording one of its best years in 2024(and in 2022),Gatineau will see the volume of housing starts decrease slightly in 2025.In 2026 and 2027,we expect act

290、ivity to stabilize around 2025 levels.Improved financing conditions and certain government initiatives mean ground will be broken on a number of rental housing projects.However,some factors will have a negative impact on housing starts:The limited capacity of some infrastructure to allow for the con

291、struction of new housing.Vacancy rates for new rental units that are higher than those for older units.The addition of new rental units wont be enough to ease the market in the short and medium terms.Indeed,demand remains strong,especially in the lower rent ranges.This will keep the vacancy rate sta

292、ble at low levels over the entire forecast horizon.Rents will therefore continue to rise.Demand will also be strong on the resale market,in particular because of the decline in mortgage rates.We therefore expect that activity on Gatineaus resale market will continue to increase in 2025.Under these c

293、ircumstances,average home prices in Gatineau will increase slightly in 2025,driven by:persistent buyer demand;limited inventories on the resale market.MontralKey takeaways In 2025,housing starts in the Montral area are expected to increase for a second consecutive year.Lower financing costs and gove

294、rnment programs will continue to drive new rental project starts.Sales growth that began in the Montral area in 2024 will continue in 2025,driven by recent population growth,lower interest rates,and increased household income.The rental housing vacancy rate should rise in the coming years,given the

295、expected increase in rental housing starts and slower population growth.We expect the total number of housing starts in Montral to increase for a second consecutive year in 2025.Rental units will remain the most commonly built housing type.More stable construction costs,better financing conditions a

296、nd government incentive programs will continue to drive new rental project starts in 2025.Some municipalities in the Greater Montral area want to increase density and streamline project approval processes.These changes could help accelerate the pace of housing starts in the coming years.Condominium

297、starts will remain low in the short term,as there arent many projects offering pre-sale units.In addition,the proportion of units sold in this way is currently low.Despite losing some momentum over the past year,the Montral labour market remains strong.In 2025,growth in employment and household inco

298、me should continue to support increasing housing demand.Driven by declining interest rates,recent population growth and rising incomes,the pace of property sales should continue to accelerate this year.Because sales slightly outpace supply,market conditions will remain tight and support price growth

299、.This market momentum should fade in 2026 and 2027.Sales and price growth will then be slower,with the decline in mortgage rates coming to an end and more modest population growth than in 2025.With the growth in rental stock,the Montral rental market will ease slightly in 2025.This trend will contin

300、ue over the forecast horizon with the expected increase in rental housing starts and slowdown in population growth.Housing Market Outlook|February 202539QubecKey takeaways Sales will continue to increase in Qubec in 2025,supported by a strong job market.Housing starts will rise in 2025,driven by str

301、ong rental housing construction activity.There will be no slowdown for the Qubec rental market,which will remain tight;supply will remain insufficient and demand,robust.The Qubec CMA had a record year for home sales in 2020,followed by 3years of slight declines during the pandemic.As in most eastern

302、 markets,sales picked up in 2024.This trend will continue in 2025.Like elsewhere,the increase in sales is supported by:decreasing interest rates;strong employment(the Qubec CMA has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country).Strong demand will be accompanied by sustained price increases bec

303、ause supply remains limited.We expect prices to continue rising,but more slowly than during the pandemic.Housing starts should remain high in Qubec in 2025.As in other eastern markets,rental units will remain the most commonly built housing type.However,limited infrastructure capacity poses a downsi

304、de risk for housing starts,especially in Lvis.The rental market will remain tight,despite the slight increase in the vacancy rate expected over the coming years.Indeed,rental demand remains high.This can be attributed in part to continued net positive migration from other regions of the province to

305、the Qubec CMA.The new units that will be added to supply still wont be enough to ease the market.With vacancy rates still low,rents will continue to rise.HalifaxKey takeaways The volume of housing starts will increase in Halifax thanks to lower interest rates and higher household incomes.Multi-unit

306、dwellings will continue to account for the vast majority of housing starts.Sales will increase,supported by strong demand.Housing starts will increase in Halifax thanks to favourable financing conditions.As in most eastern markets,rental project starts will continue to grow and account for most of t

307、he volume.Indeed,the outlook for rental project starts remains positive,even if its not as strong as in the last 2years.Starts of houses(single-detached,semi-detached and row houses)have also rebounded in Halifax in the past few months after several quarters of significant declines.Theyre being supp

308、orted by declining mortgage rates and rising incomes.Indeed,employee compensation in all sectors in Nova Scotia has increased significantly over the past 2years,which has stimulated demand.The arrival of new units on the market will push the vacancy rate up slightly.However,the main risk in the rent

309、al market is delays in the completion of housing units,because the construction sector is facing a shortage of workers and lower-than-expected productivity.These factors could limit the growth in supply.Housing Market Outlook|February 202540Forecast Summary(Ottawa CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)2022202320

310、24LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached2,7841,5351,5151,3001,8001,2002,0001,1002,200Multiples8,6957,7106,3795,7006,6005,8006,8006,1006,800Starts Total11,4799,2457,8947,0008,4007,0008,8007,2009,000Resale MarketMLS Sales12,04110,54911 624(F)10,50013,60010,10014,90010,50015,500MLS

311、Average Price($)720,285683,129692 400(F)701,000734,000696,000769,000715,000790,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)2.12.12.62.93.13.1Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,6251,6981,8801,9602,0402,120Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.F

312、orecast Summary(Gatineau CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached612323401300500200600160640Multiples3,3792,4253,2542,5403,2602,5403,2602,4803,320Starts Total3,9912,7483,6552,8403,7602,7403,8602,6403,960Resale MarketMLS Sales4,7714,0424,5844,800

313、5,4003,9005,9003,2006,200MLS Average Price($)456,520450,223477,603475,400509,700497,700574,800510,000634,700Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)0.81.01.92.02.02.0Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,2701,2501,3531,4311,5201,620Sources:SCHL,QPAREB by CentrisQPAREB by Centris.The Centris system contains all the list

314、ings of Qubec Real Estate Board.The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Housing Market Outlook|February 202541Forecast Summary(Montral CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached1,8331,0211,1

315、071,0501,2501,0001,4009001,500Multiples22,31614,21416,46318,95022,75018,00026,60016,10029,500Starts Total24,14915,23517,57020,00024,00019,00028,00017,00031,000Resale MarketMLS Sales42,46036,32143,74245,40051,80045,00055,20043,40056,000MLS Average Price($)611,890600,325637,457671,000706,000685,000748

316、,000686,000776,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)2.01.52.12.52.72.9Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,0221,0961,1761,2301,2851,325Sources:SCHL,QPAREB by CentrisQPAREB by Centris.The Centris system contains all the listings of Qubec Real Estate Board.The forecasts included in this document are based on infor

317、mation available as of January 14,2025.Forecast Summary(Qubec CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home MarketStarts:Single-Detached912542589630970540860460740Multiples7,3784,4676,3165,2207,7805,3007,7005,3707,630Starts Total8,2905,0096,9055,8508,7505,8408,5605,8308,370Resal

318、e MarketMLS Sales8,9358,2959,8359,10010,1008,40010,8007,60011,600MLS Average Price($)354,988367,755409,193408,000428,300491,100527,700581,700640,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)1.50.90.91.01.31.5Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)9761,0401,1591,2001,2501,300Sources:SCHL,QPAREB by CentrisQPAREB by Centris.Th

319、e Centris system contains all the listings of Qubec Real Estate Board.The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Housing Market Outlook|February 202542Forecast Summary(Halifax CMA)2025(F)2026(F)2027(F)202220232024LowHighLowHighLowHighNew Home Mar

320、ketStarts:Single-Detached7756198167509507751,0008001,100Multiples2,6124,1864,2653,7505,0003,7755,3503,9505,750Starts Total3,3874,8055,0814,5005,9504,5506,3504,7507,050Resale MarketMLS Sales5,6874,9135,365(F)5,0006,2005,1006,5005,2007,000MLS Average Price($)539,353553,388580,000(F)563,000605,000566,0

321、00634,000569,000651,000Rental MarketVacancy rate(%)1.01.02.12.52.73.0Average Rent Two Bedrooms($)1,1491,6261,7071,7401,7701,800Source:CREA,CMHCThe forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 14,2025.Housing Market Outlook|February 202543Additional ResourcesGe

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332、In,YouTube,Instagram,X,and Facebook.Alternative text and data for figuresNational OverviewFigure1:Canadian economy faces significant uncertaintyCanada Real GDP Forecast(trillion$CAD)YearHistoricalLow ScenarioMedium ScenarioHigh Scenario2020 Q1 2.211376 2020 Q2 1.968126 2020 Q3 2.146901 2020 Q4 2.187

333、228 2021 Q1 2.224489 2021 Q2 2.221882 2021 Q3 2.266642 2021 Q4 2.307224 2022 Q1 2.326901 2022 Q2 2.348717 2022 Q3 2.362933 2022 Q4 2.359547 2023 Q1 2.382355 2023 Q2 2.387280 2023 Q3 2.383979 2023 Q4 2.388157 2024 Q1 2.400255 2024 Q2 2.413400 2024 Q3 2.419572 2024 Q4 2.426405 2.426415 2.426399 2.426401 2025 Q1 2.418764 2.432226 2.433231 2025 Q2 2.404570 2.442275 2.449507 2025 Q3 2.391793 2.448714 2