2025 年后建筑业将蓬勃发展还是陷入衰退？.pdf

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1、2019 The Associated General Contractors of America,Inc.Ken SimonsonChief Economist,AGC of America ken.simonsonagc.org Will U.S.Construction Thrive or Divein the Rest of 25?May 20252025 The Associated General Contractors of America,Inc.2019 The Associated General Contractors of America,Inc.2|0%1%2%3%

2、4%5%6%7%Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Construction job gains have slowed but still outpace other sectorsYear-over-year change,Jan.2022-Apr.2025,seasonally adjustedResidential ConstructionTotal Nonfarm%change since:Apr.2024Jan.20226.3%6.3%Nonresid

3、ential Construction12%2025 The Associated General Contractors of America,Inc.Source:BLS current employment statistics,https:/www.bls.gov/ces/0.1%1.2%2.9%Total Construction9.6%1.7%2019 The Associated General Contractors of America,Inc.3|Source:Bureau of Labor Statistics,state and area employment,www.

4、bls.gov/saeConstruction employment is increasing in most states31 states&DC up&19 states down Mar.2024-Mar.2025(U.S.:1.8%)Top 5NM12%ID10%KY8.0%OH6.7%SC6.7%2025 The Associated General Contractors of America,Inc.Bottom 5WA-5.3%IA-4.8%MA-4.1%MT-4.0%AZ-2.8%2019 The Associated General Contractors of Amer

5、ica,Inc.4|2025 The Associated General Contractors of America,Inc.Contractors have pulled back on hires&openings but also layoffsJob openings,hires,and layoff rates,March 2001-March 2025,seasonally adjustedSource:Bureau of Labor Statistics,www.bls.gov/jlt,Job Openings&Labor Turnover Survey(JOLTS)Job

6、openings2020:March 2025:4.0%Hires4.1%2.9%3.6%March2024:2.9%5.0%Layoffs2.2%1.7%8.5%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%Mar-01Mar-05Mar-09Mar-13Mar-17Mar-21Mar-252019 The Associated General Contractors of America,Inc.5|The wage premium contractors pay to attract craft workers is risingWage premium=average hourly e