1、2025 MAR Lost Generations?Fertility and Economic Growth in Europe Serhan Cevik WP/25/WP/25/55 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/55IMF Working Paper European Department Lost Generations?Fertility and Economic Growth in Europe Prepared by Serhan Cevik1 Authorized for distribution by Jan Kees Mart
2、ijn March 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management
3、.Abstract The total fertility ratethe average number of births per womanin Europe is already at 1.46,which is significantly below the replacement rate of 2.1,where fertility compensates for mortality and thereby the population replaces itself from one generation to the next.Falling fertility rates w
4、ill have far-reaching social and economic consequences,and therefore it is a critical empirical exercise to estimate the impact of below-replacement fertility on income growth and test quantitatively for the existence of mitigating factors that could inform appropriate policy responses.In this paper
5、,I address the endogeneity bias caused by reverse causality by implementing an instrumental variable approach and use exogenous variation in the comparative abortion index as an instrument for the total fertility rate.These results show that fertility has a significant positive effect on real GDP pe
6、r capita growth in a sample of 42 European countries over the period 19602022.This means that the downward fertility transition across Europe,accompanied by fast-aging population,is a significant drag on income per capita growth.JEL Classification Numbers:J10;J13;J22;O40;O47 Keywords:Fertility;demog
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