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DLR&罗兰贝格:2024 先进空中交通(AAM)商业化之路研究报告:eVTOL单位经济深度解析(英文版)(24页).pdf

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1、Advanced Air Mobility on the runway to commercializationREPORTA close look at eVTOL unit economicsThis study focuses on the economics of electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing(eVTOL)aircraft in the Advanced Air Mobility(AAM)market.Investment in AAM increased from USD 1.6 billion in 2020 to USD 7.5 b

2、illion in 2021 but fell sharply in 2022 and 2023 due to macroeconomic conditions as well as declining investor confidence.Despite this downturn,we believe the industry is experiencing a typical Gartner Hype Cycle,and only AAM aircraft companies offering technically and commercially viable solutions

3、will eventually survive.The AAM industry needs to achieve both the technical proof of concept,which covers achieving type certification and securing production ramp-up,and the commercial proof of concept,which requires a collaboration from all stakeholders across the AAM ecosystem to ensure an effec

4、tive and efficient alignment of the ecosystem building blocks as the foundation for commercially viable unit economics.Our economic model considers the direct and indirect operating costs of three different eVTOL aircraft types to determine ticket prices and unit economics.We analyze three use cases

5、:City Taxi,Airport Shuttle,and Inter City.Our findings indicate that while eVTOL unit economics are higher initially than currently claimed by eVTOL aircraft manufacturers,they can be reduced by considering low-cost vertiports,switching to remotely piloted or autonomous flights,and improving battery

6、 lifetime.Despite facing numerous challenges,we believe AAM can be economically viable for a premium market in the early years,and that eVTOL OEMs,operators,and ecosystem stakeholders should work together to offer the most efficient and effective AAM services.Looking ahead,it is crucial to build con

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本文主要研究了电动垂直起降(eVTOL)飞机在先进空中出行(AAM)市场的经济性。主要观点如下: 1. 2020年AAM投资额达16亿美元,2021年增至75亿美元,但2022和2023年因宏观经济状况和投资者信心下降而大幅下滑。 2. AAM行业处于典型的Gartner炒作周期中,只有提供技术和商业可行解决方案的公司才能生存。 3. AAM行业需要实现技术概念验证(通过型号认证和生产爬坡)和商业概念验证(需要所有利益相关者合作确保生态系统构建块的有效和高效对齐)。 4. 经济模型考虑了三种不同eVTOL飞机类型的直接和间接运营成本,以确定票价和单位经济性。 5. 尽管面临诸多挑战,但AAM在早期对高端市场而言在经济上是可行的,eVTOL原始设备制造商、运营商和生态系统利益相关者应共同努力提供最有效、最有效的AAM服务。
电动垂直起降飞机(eVTOL)的商业可行性如何? 影响eVTOL单位经济效益的主要因素有哪些? eVTOL在哪些市场细分领域具有潜在的商业价值?
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