国家情报委员会：全球趋势2040一个竞争更加激烈的世界（英文版）（156页）.pdf

1、A MORE CONTESTED WORLDaA PUBLICATIONOF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCILA M O R E C O N T E S T E D W O R L D2040TRENDSGLOBALMARCH 2021Image/Bigstock“Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies.Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objective

2、ly based and carefully considered estimate.”Sherman KentFounder of the Office of National EstimatesBastien Herve/UnsplashGLOBAL TRENDS 2040iiPierre-Chatel-Innocenti/UnsplashA PUBLICATION OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCILA M O R E C O N T E S T E D W O R L D2040TRENDSGLOBALMARCH 2021NIC 2021-02339

3、ISBN 978-1-929667-33-8To view digital version:www.dni.gov/nic/globaltrendsGLOBAL TRENDS 2040ivTABLE OF CONTENTSFOREWORDINTRODUCTION1|KEY THEMES6|EXECUTIVE SUMMARY11|THE COVID-19 FACTOR:EXPANDING UNCERTAINTYSTRUCTURAL FORCES16|DEMOGRAPHICS AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT 23|Future Global Health Challenges30|EN

4、VIRONMENT42|ECONOMICS54|TECHNOLOGYEMERGING DYNAMICS68|SOCIETAL:DISILLUSIONED,INFORMED,AND DIVIDED78|STATE:TENSIONS,TURBULENCE,AND TRANSFORMATION 90|INTERNATIONAL:MORE CONTESTED,UNCERTAIN,AND CONFLICT PRONE107|The Future of Terrorism:Diverse Actors,Fraying International EffortsSCENARIOS FOR 2040 CHAR

5、TING THE FUTURE AMID UNCERTAINTY 110|RENAISSANCE OF DEMOCRACIES112|A WORLD ADRIFT114|COMPETITIVE COEXISTENCE116|SEPARATE SILOS118|TRAGEDY AND MOBILIZATION114v12014114266108REGIONAL FORECASTSTABLE OF GRAPHICSACKNOWLEDGEMENTSA MORE CONTESTED WORLDvFOREWORDWelcome to the 7th edition of the National Int

6、elligence Councils Global Trends report.Published every four years since 1997,Global Trends assesses the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades.Global Trends is designed to provide an analytic framework for policymaker