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兰德:评估人工智能基础模型市场中的自然垄断条件(英文版)(78页).pdf

上传人: AG 编号:606350 2024-01-01 78页 1.13MB

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本文主要探讨了预训练基础模型市场的自然垄断特征。文章首先定义了自然垄断的标准,包括产品同质性、规模经济、沉没成本、网络效应和范围经济。然后,文章分析了基础模型市场的现状,发现这些模型在同一代中表现出显著的同质性,存在规模经济,沉没成本高,网络效应和范围经济明显。最后,文章通过四种假设的未来情景,探讨了技术变化如何影响基础模型市场的自然垄断特征。这些情景包括:规模假设失效,计算性能/成本停滞;规模假设成立,计算性能/成本停滞;规模假设成立,计算性能/成本持续下降;规模假设失效,计算性能/成本持续下降。每种情景都可能导致基础模型市场从竞争转向寡头垄断或自然垄断。
预训练模型市场是否为自然垄断? 计算成本下降对预训练模型市场有何影响? 预训练模型如何实现规模经济?
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