Fraserinstitute：政策评析2024加拿大电动汽车与电力需求报告（英文版）（41页）.pdf

1、FAILURE TO CHARGEA Critical Look at Canadas EV PolicyElectric Vehicles and the Demand for Electricity G.Cornelis van Kooten2024fraserinstitute.orgELECTRIC VEHICLES AND THE DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITYG.Cornelis van Kooten Executive SummaryAs a component of climate mitigation policies,many governments have

2、 implemented measures to electrify the transportation sector.This has been done by setting target dates for when the sales of vehicles with internal combustion engines(ICEs)will end and pro-viding subsidies for the purchase of passenger electric vehicles(EVs),production facilities,and charging stati

3、ons.In Canada,current federal policy mandates all new passenger vehicles to be net-zero emissions by 2035,ultimately aiming for a fully electric new fleet.Despite ongoing federal initiatives,EVs constitute a rising but rela-tively small share of the vehicle market,growing from less than 1%of sales i

4、n 2017 to 9.1%in the last quarter of 2022.Notably,British Columbia and Quebec boast higher proportions18%and 14%of vehicles sold in the last quarter of 2022 were electric,respectively.This study delves into the potential implications of the increasing adoption of EVs on both Canadas and various prov

5、inces electric-ity grids.Our analysis provides estimates of the additional generat-ing capacity required to meet the escalating demand from EVs.We do not look into the necessity for additional transmission lines for renewable power sources or upgrades to local delivery lines.In the analysis,we emplo

6、y a Monte Carlo simulation using data on battery efficiency,battery capacity and range for 299 EV models,and average annual driving distances by jurisdiction,to estimate the expected electricity demand(and variance of demand)for an individual EV within that jurisdiction.We then provide forecasts of