高盛：2024年618购物节5大亮点继续以老牌商家反击为主题（英文版）（25页）.pdf

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1、With Chinas 618 Shopping Festival(the longest yet)concluding today on June 20,we estimate mid-to-high single digit industry GMV growth on a net GMV basis over the month-long period,or at low double-digit gross GMV growth,a wide gap due to higher return rates yoy.While China national online retail GM

2、V grew 13%in May(see our recent eCommerce tracker),we believe this was largely driven by front-loaded sales due to an earlier start of the festival and cancellation of the pre-sales period this year,and we continue to estimate online GMV of 3%for the month of June(or May+June combined of 7%,maintain

3、ing the pace of 7%-10%yoy over Mar-Apr).In particular,we highlight a few key trends from the 6.18 Shopping Festival this year:A prolonged 6.18 Shopping Festival with more spread-out sales/lacking npeaks through the period,with BABA/Kuaishou kicking off the festival as early as May 20 and sales incre

4、asingly frontloaded into May due to the cancellation of pre-sales,which boosted May industry numbers.We estimate May 20-June 16 national parcel volumes were up c.20%yoy(per our weekly tracker,also in-line with SPB estimates),at/below vs.Mar/Apr trends of 20%/23%,while we note Economic View/China Int

5、ernational Electronic Commerce Centre(CIECC)reported online goods GMV grew by 7.8%yoy for the industry over May 31-June 18.Fightback of the incumbents,with Alibaba focusing on GMV growth and nDouyin GMV sequentially moderating,where we estimate Taobao-Tmall gross GMV growth at around double-digits(r

6、eferencing Analysys,assuming a softer second half of the festival)during the 618 festival,and JD reporting that its GMV and volumes reached another record high during the festival period(we estimate JDs net GMV at single-digit growth yoy over May 21-June 18).Per 3rd party Syntun data,livestreaming G