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类型轻工制造行业专题:2021M12个护家具阿里电商跟踪报告-220112(24页).pdf

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    1、2021M12个护家具阿里电商跟踪报告证券研究报告行业专题轻工制造1.个护: 2021年个护各品类销售额同比均有下滑,但行业高端化趋势明显。分品类看,2021年个护四大品类阿里电商销售额同比均出现不同程度的下滑。纸巾方面,2021纸巾/湿巾品类销售额累计同比下降15.8%。细分品类来看,高端品类厨房纸巾、湿厕纸2021M12销售额增速迅猛、销售额占比同比提升,2021年销售额占比分别为2.1%、3.6%。分品牌看,2021年主要品牌市占率提高,四大品牌中洁柔维持较高增速。卫生巾方面,头部企业市占率持续提高。细分品类看,2021年裤型卫生巾、卫生巾、护垫、私处洗液、私处保养品类销售额占比分别为1

    2、3.8%、66.9%、2.7%、8.0%、5.5%,裤型卫生巾、护垫渗透率提升速度较快。分品牌看,高洁丝、乐而雅、libresse2021年维持较高增速,同比分别+37%/+27%/+38%。成人尿裤护理方面,大盘表现偏弱,主要品牌销售额同比增长均为负,头部品牌市占率下降。婴儿尿裤方面,行业高端化趋势明显,好奇、碧芭宝贝增速迅猛。2.软体:2021年软体销售额同比增长13.1%,梦百合增速靓丽。2021年软体品类销售额同比+13.1%。沙发方面,2021年销售额同比+5.9%。细分品类来看,布艺沙发、沙发床2021M12增速亮眼,环比分别+53.3、+59.6%。床垫方面,2021年销售额同比

    3、+30.9%。分品牌来看,梦百合增速亮眼,2021M12梦百合销售额同比增长180.9%。3.文具&潮玩:文具板块降幅同比缩窄,主要品牌市占率略有下滑;潮玩行业同比增速提高,泡泡玛特延续靓丽表现。文具方面,2021M12文具总体销售额同比下降19.3%,环比下降1.9%。分品牌来看,2021M12得力销售额同比-31.0%,环比-29.3%,2021年销售额占比为9.1%;晨光2021M12销售额同比-30.2%,环比-27.4%,2021年销售额占比为5.6%。2021M12 CR2为11.0%,同比-1.8pp。潮玩方面,2021M12潮玩销售额同比增速提高,同比+9.3%,环比-7.8%

    4、。泡泡玛特2021M12头部IP如SPACE MOLLY系列等表现靓丽,销售同比+46.3%,环比-65.6%,销售额占比为4.9%,同比+1.2pp,2021年销售额占比为7.6%;万代2021M12销售额同比下滑,同比-15.6%,环比-30.3%,销售额占比为7.3%,同比-2.2pp, 2021年销售额占比为9.4% 。投资建议:家具板块推荐1)与行业持续分化的低估值龙头【顾家家居】、【敏华控股】、【欧派家居】;2)基本面向好估值处于低位的【索菲亚】,建议关注【志邦家居】、【金牌厨柜】;3)海运费回落、中美贸易关系边际缓和受益的出口产业链,建议关注【乐歌股份】、【恒林股份】、【永艺股份

    5、】。学生文具短期受双减政策下终端渠道提货信心受损的冲击表现偏弱,我们预计2021Q4将有所修复,推荐经营稳健、回调较多的行业龙头【晨光文具】。风险提示:汇率及原材料价格大幅波动;地产竣工及销售不达预期;销售渠道结构未能形成适应性转变;宏观经济恢复未达预期;数据统计的准确性。核心要点2rQpRpNtNmQwOnPpMwPyQwP9PbP9PpNqQpNtRlOnNrQiNrQtQ7NmMyRvPoPmPMYtQqQ目录32.软体行业2021M12阿里电商数据跟踪1.个护行业2021M12阿里电商数据跟踪3.文具行业2021M12阿里电商数据跟踪5.风险提示4.潮玩行业2021M12阿里电商数据跟

    6、踪1.个护行业2021M12阿里电商数据跟踪41.1个护行业大盘情况数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所2021年个护大盘受高基数及高库存因素影响表现偏弱,各品类销售额同比均有下滑;2021M12纸尿裤、卫生巾/私处护理销售额降幅扩大,纸巾/湿巾、成人尿裤护理销售额降幅缩窄。5分品类来看,阿里平台纸巾/湿巾销售额2021年累计同比下滑15.8%,2021年同2019年相比两年复合增速为-0.5%,2021M12同比下降12.3%;卫生巾/私处护理销售额2021年累计同比下滑6.6%,2021年同2019年相比两年复合增速为12.0%,2021M12同比下滑12.6%;纸尿裤销售额2021年同比下滑

    7、7.0%,2021年同2019年相比两年复合增速为4.8%,2021M12同比下降22.3%;成人尿裤护理销售额2021年同比下滑16.3%,2021年同2019年相比两年复合增速为-1.9%,2021M12同比下滑14.5%。个护大盘销售额同比增速纸巾/湿巾卫生巾/私处护理纸尿裤成人尿裤护理2020M633.8%67.9%34.8%44.4%2020M713.6%66.9%10.7%20.8%2020M87.4%22.4%6.6%20.5%2020M920.2%19.0%15.2%17.0%2020M1028.3%31.9%29.4%22.6%2020M1114.1%12.9%23.2%21

    8、.0%2020M12-11.4%5.5%8.7%6.2%2021M129.8%50.4%52.8%34.0%2021M2-37.5%-30.4%-41.1%-29.5%2021M3-14.4%-10.1%5.9%4.2%2021M4-20.5%-11.5%-11.0%-15.1%2021M5-20.4%-19.7%0.3%-11.5%2021M6-5.7%13.4%5.8%-14.1%2021M7-18.0%-21.2%0.9%-15.1%2021M8-15.2%-5.2%3.3%-19.7%2021M9-27.8%-15.1%-16.9%-28.6%2021M10-29.7%-11.8%-1

    9、7.1%-4.0%2021M11-13.9%-4.9%-20.1%-31.5%2021M12-12.3%-12.6%-22.3%-14.5%2021年-15.8%-6.6%-7.0%-16.3%2020年17.6%34.4%18.1%14.9%2019-2021年2YCAGR-0.5%12.0%4.8%-1.9%1.2纸巾/湿巾:清风销售回暖,洁柔增长稳健,CR4市占率持续提升数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所2021M12纸巾/湿巾降幅缩小,细分品类中厨房纸巾、湿厕纸增速较快。2021M12纸巾/湿巾品类阿里平台销售额同比-12.3%,环比-59.3%。细分品类来看,2021M12传统品类抽纸

    10、、卷筒纸销售额同比分别下降9.8%、13.1%,环比分别-57.9%、-62.3%,2021年销售额占比分别为53.3%、21.3%;高端细分品类厨房纸巾、湿厕纸2021M12销售额增速迅猛,同比分别+13.0%、+57.7%,环比分别-43.4%、-65.6%,2021年销售额占比分别为2.1%、3.6%。62021M12纸巾/湿巾品类销售额同比增速2020M12-2021M12纸巾/湿巾细分品类销售额占比抽纸卷筒纸湿巾手帕纸棉柔巾/洗脸巾厨房纸巾家用防油贴纸平板卫生纸湿厕纸保湿纸巾2020M1251.8%21.1%7.2%3.2%7.2%2.1%0.8%1.2%2.4%2.1%2021M1

    11、52.9%20.3%9.2%2.8%5.0%1.9%1.2%1.5%1.9%2.0%2021M253.6%19.9%6.5%4.2%5.7%3.2%1.3%1.3%2.1%1.3%2021M354.2%22.1%5.3%3.7%5.5%1.8%0.6%1.3%2.9%1.7%2021M452.7%21.3%5.9%5.0%4.7%2.9%0.5%1.2%2.9%1.7%2021M554.5%22.3%6.0%3.3%4.9%2.0%0.6%1.2%2.7%1.3%2021M653.1%22.0%5.4%2.4%6.2%1.8%0.4%1.1%3.9%2.7%2021M753.1%20.3%6.

    12、9%3.7%5.0%2.2%0.8%1.5%3.7%1.3%2021M852.8%19.9%7.4%3.5%6.1%2.3%0.7%1.3%3.4%1.4%2021M955.8%19.7%5.8%3.5%5.7%1.8%0.7%1.2%3.3%1.4%2021M1055.6%20.5%5.6%3.6%5.1%1.8%0.5%0.9%4.2%1.5%2021M1151.5%22.6%4.1%2.0%8.4%1.9%0.3%1.0%5.1%2.6%2021M1253.3%20.9%6.5%2.5%4.8%2.7%0.6%1.3%4.3%2.1%2021M1-1253.3%21.3%5.9%3.1%

    13、6.0%2.1%0.6%1.2%3.6%1.9%全年角度看,纸巾品类产品细分化的趋势明显,湿厕纸、保湿纸巾(乳霜纸)、厨房纸销售额份额呈提升趋势。但与其他细分品类相比,这些高端细分产品月度波动更为明显,消费者倾向于在电商大促时进行囤货。1.2纸巾/湿巾:清风销售回暖,洁柔增长稳健,CR4市占率持续提升数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所头部品牌分化明显,洁柔2021M12销售额增速超20%;维达(含tempo)、心相印销售额同比降幅较大,清风同比增速转正,销售回暖。2021年维达(含tempo)、洁柔、清风、心相印四大品牌销售额同比分别-2.7%、+9.8%、-25.0%、-15.3%;2021M

    14、12销售额同比分别-13.9%、+23.5%、+10.5%、-16.2%;2021年市场销售额占比分别为22.5%(同比+3.0pp)、13.4%(同比+3.1pp)、8.9%(同比-1.1pp)、9.4%(同比+0.1pp),CR4为54.3%(同比+5.1pp)。7纸巾/湿巾主要品牌销售额同比增速纸巾/湿巾主要品牌销售额占比情况-13.0%-19.5%-13.9%23.5%10.5%-16.2%-12.2%-6.4%19.9%-2.7%9.8%-25.0%-15.3%-15.8%9.7%33.5%12.9%23.4%-10.2%-1.1%-0.5%-40%-20%0%20%40%Vinda

    15、tempo维达(含tempo)洁柔清风心相印大盘增速2021M122021年2019-2021年 2YCAGR19.9%19.5%19.5%22.5%11.1%15.6%10.3%13.4%7.1%8.9%10.0%8.9%8.7%8.3%9.4%9.4%0%20%40%60%2020M122021M122020年2021年维达国际洁柔清风心相印1.3卫生巾:护舒宝增速提升,头部企业市占率持续提高数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所2021M12裤型卫生巾、护垫增速较快。卫生巾/私处护理2021年销售额累计同比-6.6%,2021M12同比-12.6%。细分品类来看,2021M12裤型卫生巾销售额

    16、同比+9.0%,环比-75.9%;卫生巾销售额同比-14.7%,环比-73.7%;护垫销售额同比+11.3%,环比-46.3%;私处洗液、私处保养品类销售额同比分别-13.8%、-34.2%。2021年裤型卫生巾、卫生巾、护垫、私处洗液、私处保养品类销售额占比分别为13.8%、66.9%、2.7%、8.0%、5.5%,裤型卫生巾、护垫渗透率提升速度较快。82021M12卫生巾/私处护理品类销售额同比增速2021M12卫生巾/私处护理品类销售额占比2020M12-2021M12卫生巾/私处护理细分品类销售额占比-14.7%9.0%-13.8%11.3%-19.7%-34.2%-40%-30%-2

    17、0%-10%0%10%20%卫生巾裤型卫生巾 私处洗液护垫卫生棉条私处保养65.8%13.6%8.9%3.3%3.0%5.0%卫生巾裤型卫生巾私处洗液护垫卫生棉条私处保养卫生巾裤型卫生巾私处洗液护垫卫生棉条私处保养2020M1267.5%10.9%9.1%2.6%3.2%6.7%2021M162.7%10.7%8.5%2.6%2.4%13.1%2021M257.8%11.3%10.5%2.8%3.0%13.7%2021M370.4%11.5%8.4%2.6%3.3%3.7%2021M463.7%11.9%12.4%3.2%2.7%6.1%2021M564.2%10.8%10.7%3.4%3.2

    18、%7.6%2021M669.4%14.3%6.0%2.3%3.6%4.1%2021M760.8%11.8%11.2%4.3%3.4%7.9%2021M861.5%15.8%9.5%3.3%2.8%7.0%2021M963.8%14.5%9.5%3.1%2.6%6.3%2021M1067.5%14.7%8.1%2.6%2.5%4.6%2021M1172.1%16.3%4.9%1.8%2.6%2.2%2021M1265.8%13.6%8.9%3.3%3.0%5.0%2021年66.9%13.8%8.0%2.7%2.9%5.5%数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所高洁丝、乐而雅、libresse2021

    19、年维持较高增速,护舒宝、高洁丝、abc2021M12增速为正。高洁丝、乐而雅、libresse2021年维持较高增速,同比分别+37%、+27%、+38%,2021M12销售额同比分别+7%、-10%、-64%。护舒宝、高洁丝、abc2021M12增速为正,2021M12同比分别+18%、+7%、+2%。整体来看行业集中度持续提升,2021年行业CR9同比提升10.1pp至67.9%,2021M12行业CR9同比提升2.6pp至64.4%。其中Libresse、全棉时代、乐而雅、高洁丝、苏菲、护舒宝2021年销售额占比同比增加0.5pp、0.5pp、1.8pp、3.9pp、0.8pp、3.3p

    20、p至1.4%、3.2%、6.7%、12.4%、14.7%、18.9%。9卫生巾品类主要品牌销售额同比增速1.3卫生巾:护舒宝增速提升,头部企业市占率持续提高卫生巾品类主要品牌销售额占比情况16.4%14.0%13.9%14.7%13.6%18.4%15.6%18.9%9.6%11.8%8.4%12.4%5.4%5.6%4.9%6.7%4.8%4.9%5.1%4.7%0%30%60%2020M122021M122020年2021年苏菲护舒宝高洁丝乐而雅七度空间abc全棉时代自由点libresse-25%18%7%-10%-11%2%-32%-37%-64%-1%13%37%27%-13%-6%1

    21、1%-21%38%24%26%54%43%-8%16%40%7%-100%0%100%苏菲护舒宝高洁丝乐而雅七度空间abc全棉时代自由点libresse2021M122021年2019-2021年 2YCAGR1.4成人失禁护理:大盘表现偏弱,头部企业销售额增速及占比均下降数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所2021年大盘表现偏弱,双十一大促虹吸效应下2021M12头部品牌市占率下降。2021年成人失禁用品大盘销售额同比-16.3%,2021M12同比下滑14.5%。2021M12头部品牌中销售额同比增长均为负。康福瑞、周大人、安而康、可靠、包大人、添宁2021M12销售额同比分别下降46.4%、

    22、35.7%、24.0%、40.6%、26.4%、39.9%。销售额占比下降,可靠、周大人、包大人、安而康、添宁、康福瑞2021M12销售额占比分别同比下降5.9pp、2.3pp、1.0pp、0.8pp、0.6pp、0.7pp至13.5%、7.0%、6.0%、6.3%、1.3%、1.3%,2021年销售额占比分别为18.2%、8.3%、7.1%、8.0%、1.6%、2.0%。2021M12 CR6下降11.3pp至35.4%,2021年 CR6为45.2%。10成人失禁护理主要品牌销售额占比2021M12成人失禁护理主要品牌销售额同比增速-40.6%-35.7%-26.4%-24.0%-39.9

    23、%-46.4%-60%-40%-20%0%可靠周大人drp/包大人安而康tena/添宁comfrey/康福瑞19.4%16.0%24.4%13.5%18.2%9.4%9.1%7.0%7.0%8.3%7.0%7.4%7.7%6.0%7.1%7.1%8.0%8.7%6.3%8.0%1.9%1.7%1.7%1.3%1.6%2.0%2.4%2.2%1.3%2.0%0%35%70%2020M122021M102021M112021M122021年可靠周大人drp/包大人安而康tena/添宁comfrey/康福瑞2021年婴儿尿裤大盘销售额同比下降7.0%,2021M12同比下降22.3%,2021年同2

    24、019年同期相比2YCAGR为4.8%。细分品类来看,高端化趋势明显。布尿裤/尿垫、拉拉裤、传统纸尿裤2021年销售额占比分别为9.6%、44.1%、45.8%。拉拉裤、布尿裤/尿垫2021M12销售额占比同比提升5.8pp、2.9pp至46.7%、8.3%,而传统纸尿裤2021M12销售额占比为44.4%,同比下降8.5pp。1.5婴儿尿裤:行业高端化趋势明显,好奇、碧芭宝贝增速靓丽数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所112020M12-2021M12婴儿尿裤细分品类销售额占比2021年婴儿尿裤细分品类销售额占比2021M12婴儿尿裤细分品类销售额占比45.8%44.1%9.6%0.3%0.1%

    25、0.1%纸尿裤拉拉裤布尿裤/尿垫纸尿片特护尿裤其他44.4%46.7%8.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%纸尿裤拉拉裤布尿裤/尿垫纸尿片特护尿裤其他纸尿裤拉拉裤布尿裤/尿垫纸尿片特护尿裤其他尿裤周边2020M1252.9%40.9%5.4%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%2021M153.1%41.0%5.1%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%2021M254.1%38.1%7.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%2021M348.1%44.7%6.5%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.0%2021M447.2%44.6%7.6%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.0%2021M545.4%42.0%12.1%0

    26、.3%0.1%0.1%0.0%2021M644.7%47.0%7.9%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%2021M745.0%38.7%15.7%0.2%0.3%0.1%0.0%2021M845.1%41.3%13.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%2021M944.3%43.7%11.6%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%2021M1042.7%42.4%14.6%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%2021M1142.2%48.1%9.3%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%2021M1244.4%46.7%8.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%2021年45.8%44.1%9.6%0.3%0.1

    27、%0.1%0.0%分品牌来看,好奇、babycare、碧芭宝贝2021年增速为正;2021M12碧芭宝贝增速较快、好奇保持正增速。好奇、babycare、碧芭宝贝2021年同比增速均呈现正增长,分别+38.4%、+24.6%、+43.8%,而花王、moony、帮宝适2021年销售额同比分别下滑23.1%、18.6%、7.7%。碧芭宝贝、好奇2021M12销售额同比增长87.6%、7.1%。整体来看高端产品市场份额持续提升,2021年行业CR6为48.4%,2021M12行业CR6同比提升4.8pp至47.0%。其中好奇、帮宝适、妙而舒、moony、babycare、碧芭宝贝2021年销售额占比

    28、分别为16.4%、12.4%、4.2%、4.5%、7.7%、3.1%。121.5婴儿尿裤:行业高端化趋势明显,好奇、碧芭宝贝增速迅猛婴儿尿裤品类主要品牌销售额同比增速婴儿尿裤品类主要品牌销售额占比数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所7.1%-15.2%-35.1%-60.5%-14.8%87.6%38.4%-7.7%-23.1%-18.6%24.6%43.8%49.8%4.2%-3.8%-12.6%81.5%-100%0%100%huggies/好奇pampers/帮宝适花王/妙而舒moonybc babycare碧芭宝贝2021M122021年2019-2021年 2YCAGR11.8%19.8

    29、%16.2%11.0%16.4%11.6%13.2%12.7%12.5%12.4%4.8%4.0%4.0%5.1%4.2%6.0%4.0%3.1%5.2%4.5%6.3%9.6%6.9%5.8%7.7%1.7%4.9%4.1%2.0%3.1%0%20%40%60%2020M122021M112021M122020年2021年huggies/好奇pampers/帮宝适花王/妙而舒moonybc babycare碧芭宝贝2.软体行业2021M12阿里电商数据跟踪132.1软体大盘:2021年软体销售额同比增长13.1%2021年全年,软体品类整体销售额同比+13.1%,其中沙发同比+5.9%,床垫

    30、同比+30.9%。2021M12软体大盘增速加快,销售额同比+39.0%。沙发和床垫品类发生分化 , 沙 发 品 类 增 速 加 快 , 沙 发2021M12销售额同比+73.8%,环比+16.1%。床垫出现下滑,2021M12销售额同比-35.7%,环比-84.0%。软体大盘销售额同比增速品类销售额占比14数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所注:红星美凯龙以邮费方式将线下销售额计入,导致实木沙发品类销售额偏差较大,实木沙发品类中减去该部分影响计算软体沙发床垫沙发床垫2020M1252.8%42.9%79.6%68.2%31.8%2021M1178.4%114.2%738.7%69.0%31.0%

    31、2021M2116.8%77.3%216.0%58.5%41.5%2021M368.8%60.6%94.7%72.4%27.6%2021M4-17.3%-16.9%-18.8%77.2%22.8%2021M5-21.4%-21.6%-20.6%77.6%22.4%2021M62.2%-7.5%26.2%64.3%35.7%2021M70.1%3.6%-10.8%78.1%21.9%2021M827.8%35.4%5.7%79.0%21.0%2021M90.2%-4.8%14.6%70.3%29.7%2021M10-35.1%-44.5%-12.6%60.2%39.8%2021M1117.7%-

    32、17.9%80.4%44.5%55.5%2021M1239.0%73.8%-35.7%85.3%14.7%2021年13.1%5.9%30.9%66.8%33.2%2020年39.6%31.7%63.9%71.3%28.7%2019-2021年2YCAGR25.6%18.1%46.5%2.2沙发:2021M12沙发主要品牌增速下滑,市占率下降数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所布艺沙发、沙发床2021M12增速亮眼。细分品类来看,布艺沙发2021M12销售额环比+53.3%,2021年销售额占比为52.1%;沙发床2021M12销售额环比+59.6%,2021年销售额占比为7.3%;懒人沙发和实木

    33、沙发2021M12销售额环比分别-63.8%、-1.8%,2021年销售额占比分别为3.0%、11.6%;皮艺沙发和皮布沙发2021M12销售额环比分别-23.2%、-7.3%,2021年销售额占比分别为23.5%、0.6%。152020M12-2021M12沙发细分品类销售额占比2021年沙发细分品类销售额占比2021M12沙发细分品类销售额环比增速注:功能沙发从21年3月起纳入细分品类统计范围52.1%3.0%11.6%7.3%23.5%0.6%2.8%布艺沙发懒人沙发实木沙发沙发床皮艺沙发皮布沙发功能沙发53.3%-63.8%-1.8%59.6%-23.2%-7.3%-80%-60%-4

    34、0%-20%0%20%40%60%80%布艺沙发懒人沙发实木沙发沙发床皮艺沙发皮布沙发布艺沙发懒人沙发实木沙发沙发床皮艺沙发皮布沙发功能沙发2020M1241.4%2.7%16.2%7.9%29.4%1.4%2021M144.4%4.5%16.3%9.8%22.7%0.9%2021M242.2%4.7%17.2%9.5%24.1%1.0%2021M344.0%3.1%15.9%9.8%24.1%0.8%1.1%2021M441.3%2.9%14.1%10.8%27.0%0.8%1.9%2021M541.7%2.7%15.7%10.9%25.2%0.8%1.6%2021M641.7%2.8%13

    35、.3%9.7%27.0%0.6%3.8%2021M742.6%2.6%18.7%11.0%21.8%0.9%1.2%2021M864.2%2.1%10.4%5.8%16.3%0.5%2.1%2021M958.0%3.2%11.1%5.8%20.7%0.5%3.1%2021M1047.1%3.4%13.1%5.5%30.7%0.4%2.2%2021M1150.5%4.6%7.6%4.0%29.1%0.4%8.0%2021M1266.7%1.4%6.4%5.5%19.2%0.3%1.3%2021年52.1%3.0%11.6%7.3%23.5%0.6%2.8%数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所2021

    36、年顾家家居、芝华仕、林氏木业、源氏木语、全友沙发品类销售额份额分别为2.7%、4.8%、5.4%、1.4%、1.9%。(注:增速受统计口径影响不具有可比性)16沙发主要品牌销售额占比2.2沙发:2021年沙发主要品牌市占率下降,2021M12增速下滑6.5%5.9%2.5%5.4%5.2%10.0%1.4%4.8%3.1%3.0%0.6%1.9%2.7%7.3%0.9%2.7%2.4%2.1%1.0%1.4%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2020M12 2021M11 2021M122021年林氏木业cheers/芝华仕quanu/全友kuka/顾家家居源氏木语2.3床垫:梦百合增速较

    37、快,弹簧床垫、记忆棉床垫销售额占比提升趋势明显数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所弹簧床垫、记忆棉床垫销售额占比提升趋势明显,弹簧床垫同比增速较快。乳胶床垫2021M12销售额同比-60.6%,2021年销售额占比为40.3%;弹簧床垫2021M12销售额同比+54.3%,2021年销售额占比为24.5%;椰棕床垫2021M12销售额同比-44.5%,2021年销售额占比为30.3%;棕榈床垫2021M12销售额同比-65.8%,2021年销售额占比为1.9%。172020M12-2021M12床垫细分品类销售额占比2021年床垫细分品类销售额占比2021M12床垫细分品类销售额同比增速40.3%

    38、30.3%24.5%1.5%1.9%0.3%乳胶床垫椰棕床垫弹簧床垫记忆棉床垫棕榈床垫凝胶床垫-60.6%-44.5%54.3%-65.8%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%乳胶床垫椰棕床垫弹簧床垫棕榈床垫乳胶床垫椰棕床垫弹簧床垫记忆棉床垫棕榈床垫凝胶床垫2020M1263.1%13.1%18.0%0.0%4.3%0.0%2021M163.1%13.3%19.4%0.0%2.5%0.0%2021M276.4%8.9%12.2%0.3%1.4%0.0%2021M354.8%17.1%16.9%6.0%2.3%0.1%2021M455.8%17.7%20.6%2.0%2.

    39、3%0.3%2021M551.1%19.5%23.1%2.2%2.4%0.3%2021M659.8%13.1%21.0%2.1%2.0%0.9%2021M746.1%20.0%27.1%2.1%2.7%0.2%2021M849.1%17.9%26.6%2.0%2.6%0.2%2021M937.2%9.3%48.6%1.5%1.5%0.2%2021M1035.0%7.3%49.9%1.7%3.7%0.3%2021M1125.4%55.8%15.9%0.7%1.2%0.2%2021M1238.7%11.3%43.2%2.6%2.3%0.2%2021年40.3%30.3%24.5%1.5%1.9%0

    40、.3%数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所梦百合份额快速提升。2021M12梦百合售额同比增长180.9%,2021年销售额份额为3.3%;喜临门、顾家、芝华仕、慕思、雅兰2021M12销售额同比分别为-38.3%、-76.9%、-88.4%、-53.5%、-62.0%,2021年销售额份额分别为13.4%、0.9%、1.3%、5.1%、5.0%。18床垫主要品牌销售额增速床垫主要品牌销售额占比2.3床垫:梦百合增速较快,弹簧床垫、记忆棉床垫销售额占比提升趋势明显14.4%13.7%13.8%13.4%1.4%1.4%6.2%3.3%2.3%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.8%0.9%0.3%1.3%

    41、6.8%4.3%4.9%5.1%6.0%3.5%3.5%5.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35% 2020M12 2021M11 2021M122021年喜临门梦百合顾家芝华仕慕思雅兰喜临门梦百合顾家芝华仕慕思雅兰2020M12196.2%126.2%237.8%79.6%82.3%101.3%2021M1872.5%338.5%206.8%197.0%351.9%304.3%2021M22693.4%272.1%80.0%94.3%265.3%273.4%2021M3398.3%617.1%116.7%43.3%121.9%96.7%2021M4-47.2%208.9%71.1%

    42、-11.5%2.9%1.3%2021M51.0%293.2%130.9%-28.8%4.5%-9.0%2021M683.4%307.8%-23.8%75.9%-5.9%45.4%2021M79.3%242.9%-28.5%-8.3%20.7%1.4%2021M890.3%148.9%-40.9%65.9%56.6%-11.2%2021M9-27.5%115.3%-74.1%-32.4%53.1%0.3%2021M10-83.9%155.1%-68.6%-77.0%-42.0%330.8%2021M1129.2%64.3%-68.3%-17.8%27.1%-15.4%2021M12-38.3%1

    43、80.9%-76.9%-88.4%-53.5%-62.0%3.文具行业2021M12阿里电商数据跟踪19文具:文具板块降幅同比缩窄,主要品牌市占率略有下滑文具板块销售额同比降幅收窄,纸张本册销售额环比增加。2021M12文具总体销售额同比下降19.3%,环比下降1.9%,细分品类来看,书写工具、纸张本册、画具/画材/书法工具和日常学习用品2021M12销售额同比分别下降38.6%、18.4%、0.1%、19.5%,环比分别-14.8%、+21.8%、-6.6%、-3.1%。2021年销售额占比分别为18.8%、15.4%、13.0%、9.8%。2020M12-2021M12文具分类销售额占比2

    44、02021年文具品类销售额占比2021M12文具细分品类销售额同比增速数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所18.8%15.4%13.0%9.8%8.2%1.3%33.4%书写工具纸张本册画具/画材/书法工具日常学习用品收纳陈列装订用品其他-38.6%-18.4%-0.1%-19.5%-24.0%-24.2%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%书写工具纸张本册画具/画材/书法工具日常学习用品 收纳陈列装订用品其他2020M1220.5%16.9%10.3%8.1%7.6%1.2%35.3%2021M119.3%16.7%12.4%8.8%7.8%1.3%33.6%2021M221.7%15.

    45、1%12.9%11.6%8.0%1.2%29.6%2021M322.3%15.1%13.1%9.2%9.0%1.7%29.7%2021M420.1%15.4%11.6%8.5%8.8%1.5%34.2%2021M520.3%15.1%10.6%11.5%8.0%1.3%33.2%2021M620.8%15.2%10.8%9.4%8.2%1.3%34.2%2021M716.2%16.0%12.5%9.6%8.4%1.3%35.9%2021M817.3%14.4%13.7%14.3%8.8%1.2%30.2%2021M916.4%15.4%17.4%10.1%8.9%1.3%30.7%2021M1

    46、018.6%15.2%14.9%9.1%8.2%1.5%32.4%2021M1118.0%13.7%13.4%8.2%7.2%1.3%38.1%2021M1215.6%17.1%12.8%8.1%7.2%1.1%38.2%2021年18.8%15.4%13.0%9.8%8.2%1.3%33.4%品牌来看,2021年 CR2为14.7%;2021M12 CR2为11.0%,同比-1.8pp。2021M12得力销售额同比-31.0%,环比-29.3%,销售额占比同比下降1.1pp至6.6%,2021年销售额占比为9.1%;晨光2021M12销售额同比-30.2%,环比-27.4%,销售额占比同比下

    47、降0.7pp至4.4%,2021年销售额占比为5.6%。快力文、百乐2021M12销售额同比分别-39.4%、-46.5%,2021年销售额占比分别为1.5%、1.7%。文具主要品牌销售额占比21文具:文具板块降幅同比缩窄,主要品牌市占率略有下滑文具主要品牌销售额占比数据来源:淘数据,东吴证券研究所7.7%9.1%6.6%9.1%5.1%5.9%4.4%5.6%1.3%1.6%1.0%1.5%1.8%2.2%1.2%1.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2020M12 2021M11 2021M122021年得力晨光快力文百乐六品堂优学派国誉英雄马利咔巴熊得力晨光快力文百乐六品堂优学派

    48、国誉英雄马利咔巴熊2020M127.7%5.1%1.3%1.8%0.6%0.5%1.0%0.9%0.7%0.5%2021M17.5%4.6%1.5%1.6%0.8%0.6%0.9%0.9%0.7%0.6%2021M29.6%6.3%1.7%2.0%1.0%0.4%1.4%0.7%0.8%0.7%2021M310.2%5.9%1.7%1.8%0.9%0.4%1.1%1.0%1.1%0.7%2021M49.1%5.4%1.4%1.6%0.8%0.4%0.8%1.0%0.8%0.6%2021M58.7%5.7%1.3%1.8%0.7%0.3%0.8%1.0%0.7%0.6%2021M68.8%5.6

    49、%1.3%1.9%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.0%0.6%0.6%2021M78.0%4.8%1.5%1.3%0.8%0.7%1.1%1.1%0.8%0.6%2021M811.2%6.7%1.7%1.4%0.8%1.4%1.6%0.9%0.6%0.9%2021M910.2%5.9%2.0%1.4%1.4%1.3%1.2%1.1%1.1%0.9%2021M1011.3%6.2%2.1%2.0%1.3%0.4%1.3%1.0%1.0%0.8%2021M119.1%5.9%1.6%2.2%1.1%0.9%1.3%0.8%0.8%0.6%2021M126.6%4.4%1.0%1.2%0.8%0.3%0

    50、.7%0.8%0.5%0.5%2021年9.1%5.6%1.5%1.7%0.9%0.7%1.1%0.9%0.8%0.7%4. 潮玩行业2021M12阿里电商数据跟踪22潮玩:潮玩行业同比增速提高,泡泡玛特2021M12销售额同比+46.3%2021M12潮玩行业销售额同比增速提高,泡泡玛特2021M12同比增速及市占率提升显著。2021M12,潮玩行业销售额同比+9.3% , 环 比 -7.8% , 其 中 泡 泡 玛 特 2021M12 销 售 额 同 比+46.3%,环比-65.6%,销售额占比为4.9%(同比+1.2pp),2021 年 销 售 额 占 比 为 7.6% , 头 部 IP

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