光伏设备行业深度：碳中和政策强化光伏产业供需两旺-211224（36页）.pdf

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1、 2021 12 24 % 1M 3M 12M -7.20% 0.65% 39.97% 300 0.72% -6.06% -6.06% 2020A 2021E 2022E EPS PE EPS PE EPS PE 0.76 61.42 1.10 42.32 1.53 30.54 1.58 50.76 2.07 38.66 2.87 27.95 0.80 54.97 1.80 24.43 2.46 17.93 0.59 132.68 0.93 84.62 1.49 52.79 0.52 50.77 0.62 42.28 0.89 29.54 1.91 38.83 2.38 31.15 2.94

2、25.15 wind 2021 262021 仯 39.97%300 46pcts36pcts仯2021 2022 202270GW140GW 210GW 30%棬2022 82 244GW 15-20/ 500GW+46% 507GW+20% N 1.5 顣 N N 豸 -20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%2020-12 2021-04 2021-08300 豸 -2- 1 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 7 1.3 . 10 2 . 17 2.1 . 17 2.2 . 19 2.3 羺N . 21 2.4 .

3、29 2.5 . 32 3 . 34 4 . 36 1 . 4 2. 5 3 . 5 4. 7 5. 7 6sw . 8 7sw . 8 8 A . 8 9 300 . 8 10 A . 9 11 300 . 9 12 . 9 13 . 10 14 NDC .11 15塱 . 18 16 . 19 17 . 19 18 . 20 191.8 . 20 20 . 22 21 . 24 22 . 25 23 . 25 24TOPcon . 26 25HJT . 26 26N . 26 27N . 27 rQtNsQoQmQuMnPtPmNnRrM7NaObRtRpPtRmOeRrRmNiNnNsO

4、bRrQmMNZpOrRNZrNnO -3- 28 . 27 29仯 . 28 30仯 . 28 31 . 28 32 . 29 33 . 29 34 . 30 35 . 30 36 . 31 37 . 31 38 . 31 39 . 31 40 . 31 41岣 . 31 42 . 32 43 . 32 44 . 33 45 . 34 46 . 34 1 25 . 6 2 25 . 6 3仯 . 11 4仯 . 13 5 . 17 6 . 19 72022 . 20 8仯 . 21 9 . 22 10 . 23 11 . 24 -4- 1 1.1 35.3% 35.3% 300 -10.6%

5、 1.50% 4.2% 500 11.4% 45.8pcts33.8 pcts31.1 pcts 23.9 pcts 販仯/ 1 wind 棬飬 50 棬 68 /kg 88 -5- /kg 40 /m2 棬2021 硢翪壩 棬 26 / m2棬 2021 硢翪 棬6 飬 200-500GW 飬侭棬 7 8 80% 421# 6 书 2 3 wind wind 2021 仯 -6- 1仯23豸豸豸豸仯+ 125 225 % 341.02% 337.12 243.97% 1,630.64 225.35% 341.74 208.09% 161.00 204.57% 237.40 142.90% 5

6、25.79 135.24% 1,526.53 134.95% 906.71 128.78% 153.88 127.17% 270.65 124.68% 159.47 繤 120.20% 830.29 119.41% 196.01 110.82% 124.13 106.66% 173.56 95.48% 197.77 95.36% 2,093.86 84.55% 243.28 75.79% 712.88 72.76% 359.92 71.95% 174.24 71.90% 277.09 64.94% 354.24 64.06% 1,105.18 63.85% 283.81 % -22.89% 3

7、89.72 鼼 -20.18% 123.92 -5.91% 82.39 -4.58% 126.25 -3.53% 240.08 -2.62% 241.94 8.31% 86.45 15.32% 1,983.38 17.25% 917.63 18.10% 272.79 18.49% 450.02 22.05% 4,341.19 25.32% 322.60 27.45% 309.73 30.32% 273.22 34.21% 98.20 A 34.70% 221.96 34.96% 1,117.99 35.92% 112.62 45.59% 214.57 46.42% 1,198.02 49.36

8、% 185.31 54.37% 498.90 58.30% 251.18 58.68% 1,304.97 wind wind -7- 1.2 31.8% sw 豸 ttm 73.56 90.2% 8.80 89.2%ttm 31.8% 64.1% 4 wind 5 wind 0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.002015/1/9 2016/1/9 2017/1/9 2018/1/9 2019/1/9 2020/1/9 2021/1/9sw豸 A 300-1.001.003.005.007.009.0011.002015/1/9 2016/1/9 2017/1/

9、9 2018/1/9 2019/1/9 2020/1/9 2021/1/9sw豸 A 300 -8- 6sw 7sw wind wind sw 豸A 97% 300 170% 92% 88%sw 豸 A 185% 300 155% 97% 94% sw 97.2% 130.59% 8A 9 300 wind wind 0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00 sw豸 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.00 sw豸 0.300.801.301.802.302.80 豸/A 0.801.301.802.302.803.30 sw豸/

10、300 -9- 10 A 11300 wind wind A 3.08 49.37% 300 3.45 83.2%棬豸豸 50% 12 wind 0.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00 豸/A 0.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00 sw豸/30027.2 37.2 73.6 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0(TTM,) -10- 13 wind 1.3 2021 1棬漰仯 仯壬仯 仯幱塢磬2017 1 3.08 3.45 8.80 0%1

11、0%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.00() -11- 14 NDC 仯壬 3仯 / 1990.2 仯顱 仯 1992.6 仯 1998 仯顱 仯仯顱 2007.6 仯 2010 2007.8 滮 2020 2008.10 仯仯 2011 棬2011 2021 汾 2009.11 籾 2020 GDP 40-45%滮 2012.11 -12- 塰塱 2013.11 2013.11 仯 仯滮仯 2015.6 仯- NDC2030 岢壻 GDP 2005 60%-65% 20% 2005

12、45 2016.12 塱滮 2020 2030 15%20% 2020.9 75 2030 塢 2060 NDC 2020.11 G20 NDC 2020.12 2030 2030 GDP65% 25% 2005 60 硢 12 2020.12 2020 2030 塢2060 2021.3 岼 2021.4 塱塱鶨 2021.9 76 2021.10 塢1+N 2021.10 2025 GDP 2020 18% 20%2030 GDP 2005 65% 25%2060 80% -13- 2021.10 2030 2021.10 NDC 2030 壬 2060 2030 GDP 2005 65%

13、 25% 2005 60硢 12 2021.10 2021.11 21 20 21 20 2 1.5 2030 2025 2035 unfccc.int磬 2棬1+N 漰棬 70%-80%2030 棬磬磬飬 棬 4仯 漰 / / 2021.1 桱 2021.3 滮 2035 2060 -14- 2021.8 飬 2021.7 40% 41 31 95%縺 20% 2021.8 崢 2021.8 20 0.01 20 20 15% 1 1% 2021.9 磩淶 3-5 2021.9 2025 2030 2035 2021.10 20% 20% 2021.10 岣 2025 2030 2021.1

14、0 (20212025) 2025 30% 2021.10 2025 岣 30% -15- 2021-2025 2021.11 塱 2025 2020 6000 VOCs 2020 8%8%10%10% 85% 86% 80% 2020.12 罨裬 2021.9 滮20212035 2025 巭6200 2030 1.2 2035 2021.9 2025 2020 50% 2020 2035 2025 2020.12 2021 2021.7 绰 塢 2021.10 淶 2016 30%20% 2017.11 2021.3 塱滮轻 2018.3 齨仯齨 2019.5 -16- 2020.12 淶

15、 2021 21 2021.1 仯 2021.1 2021 岿 忼 2021.7 塢 2021.3 塢 2021.9 3060 塢 16 岿 2021.8 巽 2021.1 2021 2021.2 2021.3 2021.5 2021.4 2021 棩 仯 2021.7 2021 2021.11 衱 60% 1.75% -17- 1 2 unfccc.int 2 2.1 55 20% 60 25%缰 2025 10 2030 17 100GW 130GW 62GW 2060 46 /80%裬 63 2030-2060 46 150GW 5 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20

16、25E 2030E 435,819 448,529 464,000 486,000 498,460 550,000 600,000 % 13.30% 13.80% 14.30% 15.30% 15.9% 20.0% 25.0% 57,964 61,897 66,352 74,358 79,255 110,000 150,000 (g/kwh) 312 309 308 307 307 300 290 18,578 20,031 21,543 24,221 25,816 36,667 51,724 緢 11,840 11,979 12,342 13,044 13,552 14,356 15,056

17、 緢 2,133 2,481 2,865 3,487 3,662 5,058 8,671 2,419 3,046 3,660 4,057 7,276 15,166 25,250 662 1,182 1,775 2,243 647 794 900 1,111 1,326 1,887 2,547 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025E 2030E 磨 33,211 34,119 35,226 35,640 36,353 41,016 43,016 磨 3,364 3,582 4,466 4,874 5,103 7,000 12,000 1,781 2,254 2,299 3,

18、768 5,086 磨 14,864 16,367 18,426 21,005 28,153 48,515 72,838 7,742 13,000 17,446 20,430 25,343 56,574 98,591 ( 20,362 24,322 ( 31,231 42,017 籣( 4,072 4,864 ( 6,246 8,403 塢 2021 -18- 滮 2030 10.7 kwh +25.9%/ 62GW/84GW 676 150GW 100GW 50GW 2022-2023 70-80GW 15塱 棬 EVA 2022 10 4 2021Q3-Q4 64 48%2022 100-

19、110 120 260GW EVA 2022 50 100 240GW 2021Q4 衢 -19- 16 17 CPIA CPIA 10 231 +44.6%82.2GW+32.2% CPIA GW 11 2018 20 2021 120-140GW 2022 210GW 2.2 46% 2021 77 +40% 58 +17% 166GW 150-170GW 2022 126+63% 82 +41% 244GW 210GW 6 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 8.4 8.5 13.0 28.0 7.1 8.0 10.0 22.5 7.0 8.0 11.0 11.0 8.0 8.0

20、 18.0 33.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 13.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 43.3 45.2 67.8 119.3 18.6 10.0 10.0 10.0 -20- 61.9 55.2 77.8 126.8 GW 177.9 158.6 223.6 371.6 CPIA 2.9 1.2 72022 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 +10 +5 +10 +3.0 +6 +6 +6.0 +3.0 82.3 88.3 99.3 119.

21、3 CPIA 2022 15-20 /1 2021 104% 2022 122%2 6 /9 2.8-3.034 IRR=7% 1.8 -1.9 21 10%*2 12 踨 16-17 / 1.75-1.80 2022 15-20 / 18 191.8 pvinfolink 050100150200250300 /kg /kg -21- 2.3 羺N 1 400KG 560KG 22 絽 36 磬 80m 50m豸 420mm 385mm豸 8仯 2018 2019 2020 2021H1 18.82% 17.87% 17.89% 20.21% - 22.84% 26.04% 30.61% -

22、 -10.82% 16.66% 34.30% 16.08% 31.73% 30.36% 35.71% 17.45% 15.41% 22.74% 30.21% 豸 1.9 /GW 1.2 /GW 0.7 /GW 3 4 5 7 豸2020200GW 2021342GW+70%2022500GW+46%豸 -22- 9 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 42.0 85.0 105.0 140.0 33.0 50.0 85.0 110.0 11.5 18.0 33.0 45.0 15.0 22.0 32.0 40.0 - 12.0 30.0 50.0 2.5 5.6 8.0 20.0 -

23、7.5 15.0 - - 5 16 - - - 20 - - 8.0 16.0 4.1 2.8 9.0 9.0 3.0 4.5 8.0 8.0 - 3.2 11.5 11.5 111.1 199.9 342.0 500.5 CPIA 20 Datayes 档 1700 漰 250 72 261GW1200漰300300GW 2022 80% 84 99 122 129 154 184 230 230 306 331 420 0501001502002503003504004502019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 202

24、1Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4:GW -23- 10 GW 2018/5/28 2018-2021 7 2.5 8.9 2021/2/2 2022-2026 35 7 25.0 2020/11/17 2021-2023 7.2 2.4 8.6 2020/11/30 2020-2023 3.38 1.07 3.8 2021/1/25 2021-2025 7.04 1.41 5.0 2021/3/6 2021-2024 5.27 1.32 4.7 2020/8/24 2020-2022 2.68 1.2 4.3 2020/8/31 2020-2021 1.67 1.25 4.5 2021/4/

25、13 2021-2024 5 1.67 6.0 2021/5/19 2021-2023 3.1 1.03 3.7 2021/11/19 2022-2026 9.75 1.95 7.0 2020/9/26 - 10.28 36.7 2020/12/14 2021-2025 27 5.4 19.3 2019/8/6 2020-2022 11.28 3.76 13.4 2021/2/2 2021-2023 9.14 3.32 11.9 2020/8/18 2020-2025 12.48 2.5 8.9 OCI 2021/2/9 2021-2023 7.77 2.59 9.3 2020/11/6 20

26、20-2023 9.3 3 10.7 2019/9/11 2020-2021 3.16 1.58 5.6 2020/9/15 2020-2025 9.72 1.944 6.9 2020/12/23 2021-2023 3.78 1.26 4.5 2020/8/24 2020-2025 7.5 1.5 5.4 2021/5/29 2021-2026 14.58 2.916 10.4 2021/5/13 2021-2026 7.82 1.564 5.6 2021/3/12 2021-2025 15.24 3.81 13.6 2020/11/17 2021-2023 6.88 2.3 8.2 202

27、1/9/22 2021-2026 5.275 1.055 3.8 繤 2021/9/22 2022-2026 8.22 1.644 5.9 247 73 261 2 PERC N PERC BSF PERC 伫SE PERC+ 21.8% 23% 2017 PERC 豸PERC 豸 2018 4.2 /GW 2020 2.2 /GW -24- 豸 2 /GW 2017 0.37 / 0.25 / 0.2 /廯2021 70% 400GW 11 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 11.0 18.0 30.0 35.0 20.0 27.5 50.0 65.0 9.2 22.0 36.0

28、44.0 7.9 12.3 35.0 45.0 10.6 11.0 26.0 32.0 10.5 30.0 38.0 60.0 9.6 9.6 13.6 18.6 5.0 5.0 10.0 20.0 - - 1.0 5.0 6.0 10.0 30.0 30.0 6.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 2.0 5.0 15.0 19.0 7.5 9.0 9.0 9.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 - 1.6 4.0 8.0 110.8 174.0 310.6 403.6 CPIA 21 Datayes P PERC 24.5%N HJT TOPCON 27% PERC PIDLID N 35 85

29、171 250 425 507 01002003004005002017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022EGW -25- 档+ 22 23 heraeus insight Datayessolarzoom N P N N P N N TOPCon HJTN TOPCon SiO2 缫赲PERC 缫 TOPCon PERC TOPCon P N 壬 PN P N HJT衢 N 衣HJT N P/i 象 i/N 象象 TCO籡缫 TCO PN 糡糡 PN HJT HJT 750mV PERC 690mV HJT 25% -0.100.10.20.30.40.50.62019-0

30、4-042019-05-242019-07-052019-08-162019-09-272019-11-152019-12-272020-02-212020-04-022020-05-142020-06-252020-08-052020-09-162020-11-042020-12-162021-01-272021-03-172021-04-282021-06-092021-07-212021-09-012021-10-202021-12-01/w -26- 豸TOPCon 棬2019 7-8 /GW豸 2.5-3 HJT 棬2019 豸 9-10 /GW豸 4-5 /GWN 豸2019 TO

31、PCON 0.9 /w 0.3 /w2019 HJT 1.1 /w 0.4 /wTOPCon 8.75GWHJT 6.35GW TOPcon 86.5GWHJT 141.9GW伫TOPConHJTN 24TOPcon 25HJT trendforce trendforce 26N trendforc 3N 仯 N 硢硢 0.804001009001005002100100012502400050010001500200025003000TOPConMW250410200 250 100500200 200600 50012002001740020040060080010001200140016

32、0018002000HJTMW0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801001201402020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025ENHJT TOPCon NGW -27- 1N 0.35 0.01豸棬P N 嵥 PERC TOPCon 裬 N CPIA N 5%2020 50%2030 仯 27N 28 赥 赥 豸 P N N 贿 99.9999999% 贿 99.999999999% P 200ppm N 100ppm 30ppm CPIA N 飬 15m 6.8%5 俪 HJT HJT HJT 漰象渴HJT 150-160mPERC 170-175m 1

33、30-140m -28- 29仯 30仯 CPIA CPIA 棬豸 棬+ 1500 N 2mm 20%-40%150-250m 豸豸 31 -29- 2.4 2021 6.4 / 94% 35% 335GW 2022 35% 8.6 / 45% 450GW2020-2022 壬CR2 45%-50% 32 33 2021Q3-Q4棬Q4 11 34.83GW+34.3% 16.48GW+62.8%) 18.35GW(+16.2%2021 45-55GW 10GW棬11 99 yoy+48% 11 / 49.59% 4 40%/40%/20%磩 0%20%40%60%80%100%0200004

34、000060000800001000002019 2020 2021E 2022ET/D) %/05000100001500020000250002019 2020 2021E 2022E -30- 34 35 Datayessolarzoom Datayessolarzoom 72 24 80%60%/ 30% 26%/14% Fe2O3 Fe2O3 0.001% 0.02%-0.06% 88 2017 1% 8%2018 636 14 1816 150 815 200 60 0.85 391 2021 30% 2022 19.8%SiO220201194/8352022 2300 / 16

35、00 / 765 /241 328 010203040502020-09-232020-10-122020-10-232020-11-052020-11-182020-12-012020-12-142020-12-252021-01-082021-01-212021-02-032021-02-202021-03-042021-03-172021-03-302021-04-132021-04-262021-05-112021-05-242021-06-042021-06-182021-07-012021-07-142021-07-272021-08-092021-08-202021-09-022

36、021-09-152021-09-302021-10-202021-11-022021-11-152021-11-262021-12-092.0mm(/) 3.2mm(/)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0204060801001202018-01-312018-03-312018-05-312018-07-312018-09-302018-11-302019-01-312019-03-312019-05-312019-07-312019-09-302019-11-302020-01-312020-03-312020-05-312020-07-312020-09-30202

37、0-11-302021-01-312021-03-312021-05-312021-07-312021-09-302021-11-30() () / -31- 36 37 38 39 40 41岣 JC/T 2314-2015 淶- 6786 73657786 8255 852487650%2%4%6%8%10%02000400060008000100002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 %28.3 44.781.6154.6207.9327.80%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503003502015 2016 2017 2018 201

38、9 2020 %494 512558 5946360%2%4%6%8%10%01002003004005006007002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % -32- 2.5 磻豸飬衣 42 43 滮 滮 仯繫豸仯 帺帺帺 4 11.89 10% 1 5.5% 35% 5.62 19.20 42.78 53.82 02040602020 2030E 2050E 2060E硢 硢0.684 3.3357.644 9.280510152020 2030E 2050E 2060E硢 硢 -33- 44 22 11.89 帺帺磬巢 12 2 24 巢 0.6 12 2025 帺 15.

39、5 巢 16 帺巢 滮 3149 2025 6200 2030 1.2 9GW 12 3.6 20% 72GW 2 144GWh 绯 14.4GWh 100GW 5%/2 10GWh 绯 5 24-25GWh -34- 45 46 CNESA CNESA 3 档 2022 缰档N /仯 N N 豸 601012.SH廯-廯 105GW+23.5% 38GW+26.6% 65GW+30% 16.35 27.25% BIPV 400MW+豸鼰 100MW 豸 2021-2023 EPS 2.08 /2.87 /3.83 / BIPV 34-38 97.6 -109.6 600438.SHN 1,7

40、10 3,269 8,269 16,269 28,269 43,269 62,269 0%100%200%300%400%500%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000MW 2 29 61 32 105 121 621 519 1,083 5,000 8,000 12,000 15,000 19,000 -200%300%800%1300%1800%05,00010,00015,00020,000MW -35- 2021 /2022 18 33 50GW57GWİ perc N GW 2022 2021-2023 EPS 1.80 /2.45 /

41、2.79 /N 23-25 57.6-61.2 688599.SH 100% 2020 /2021H1 50GW 2022 4%2021-2023EPS0.931.49 2.12 44 -58 65.7-86.9 601865.SH 19% 2021 1.4/+118%/2022 2.0 /+43% 2022 1.50 硣 10-15pcts 240 5800 2021-2023 EPS 1.10 1.51 1.84 35-44 52.9 -67.9 002518.SZ豸豸棬UPS 2019-2020 豸 2021 / 2021-2023 EPS 0.63 0.91 1.19 30-35 27.3 -31.2 300861.SZ 2021 7000 +130%2022 1 +42.8%2021Q3 56.8% 33% 硰豸 -36- 40m 仯2021-2023EPS1.912.38 2.94 30-35 71.4-83.3 4 1谭 2潮 3豸 4 5