罗素投资（Russell Investments）：2021年全球市场趋势报告（英文版）.pdf

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1、NORMAL THE OLD 2021 Global Market Outlook We have a positive medium-term outlook for economies and corporate earnings. Were in the early post-recession recovery phase of the cycle, which implies an extended period of low- inflation, low-interest rate growth that favors equities over bonds. Andrew Pe

2、ase, Head of Global Investment Strategy COVID-19 vaccine prospects should make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. Markets have priced in a lot of good news, but more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold. The old normal 2 / 2021 Global Market Outlook

3、 / Russell Investments 2020 was a year of surprises. There was the speed at which the pandemic escalated, the severity of the lockdowns, the size of the government stimulus measures globally and the magnitude of the equity market rebounds. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that global equities, as of

4、late November, have gained around 12% since the beginning of the yearan outcome few would have predicted during a global pandemic. With the U.S. election behind us and effective vaccines on the way, investors have become bullish, pushing the S moderately expensive valuations in equity and credit; an

5、d an increasingly optimistic industry consensus which has gravitated closer to our macro view. Eurozone The second wave of virus infections has reversed the Q3 V-shaped recovery and the region is on track to record negative GDP growth in Q4. The new lockdowns are working, however, and infections acr

6、oss the region peaked in early November. Lockdowns are being eased in some countries heading into Christmas, but the likelihood is that this winter will see ongoing virus outbreaks and renewed lockdowns until a vaccine becomes widely available, possibly by spring. Europe is poised for a strong post-