麦肯锡：2017自动化时代劳动力转变报告(160页)PDF（160页）.pdf

1、DECEMBER 2017 JOBS LOST, JOBS GAINED: WORKFORCE TRANSITIONS IN A TIME OF AUTOMATION About MGI Copyright McKinsey it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. For further information about MGI and to download reports, please visit James Manyika | San Francisco Susan Lund

2、| Washington, DC Michael Chui | San Francisco Jacques Bughin | Brussels Jonathan Woetzel | Shanghai Parul Batra | San Francisco Ryan Ko | Silicon Valley Saurabh Sanghvi | Silicon Valley DECEMBER 2017 JOBS LOST, JOBS GAINED: WORKFORCE TRANSITIONS IN A TIME OF AUTOMATION PREFACE Automation is not a ne

3、w phenomenon, and fears about its transformation of the workplace and effects on employment date back centuries, even before the Industrial Revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries. In the 1960s, US President LyndonJohnson empaneled a “National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Pro

4、gress.” Among its conclusions was “the basic fact that technology destroys jobs, but not work.”* Fast forward and rapid recent advances in automation technologies, including artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and robotics are now raising the fears anewand with new urgency. In our January 2

5、017 report on automation, A future that works: Automation, employment, and productivity, we analyzed the automation potential of the global economy, the timelines over which the phenomenon could play out, and the powerful productivity boost that automation adoption could deliver. This report goes a

6、step further by examining both the potential labor market disruptions from automation and some potential sources of new labor demand that will create jobs. We develop scenarios that seek to address some of the questions most often raised in the public debate. Will there be enough work in the future