标普全球（S&P Global）：2020年新兴市场预测-空荡荡的街道和不断上升的风险（英文版）（29页）.pdf

1、March 30, 2020 Jose Perez-Gorozpe Tatiana Lysenko Elijah Oliveros-Rosen Sudeep Kesh Emerging Markets Empty Streets And Rising Risks Contents Key Takeaways Three Simultaneous Shocks Credit Conditions Key Risks Rating Bias Economic Conditions EM APAC EM EMEA LatAm Financial Conditions Emerging Markets

2、 Heat Map Corporate Sector Sensitivity 2 S Chart 2 WITS World Bank The Sharp Decline In Commodities Will Have Mixed Effects Jose Perez-Gorozpe, Mexico City, +52-55-5081-4442, jose.perez- -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Thailand India South Africa Chile Philippines Poland China Turkey Mexico I

3、ndonesia Argentina Brazil Malaysia Colombia Russia Saudi Arabia Energy Trade Balance % of GDP 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 BRENTCOPPERIRON OREGOLD Financial Conditions | Volatile And Declining Capital Flows 8 Outlook. Significant questions about the depth and breadth of COVID- on global economy

4、and supply chains caused extreme capital outflows from EMs to risk-free assets. Speed of outflows from EMs is without precedents. Risks. Adverse investor sentiment towards EMs is pressuring currencies and liquidity. Continued outflows could ultimately elevate refinancing risk and inflationary pressu

5、res. Many EMs have little space for maneuver. Credit. Extended shock to investor sentiment could result in heightened refinancing risk, especially for low rated issuers. Source: Bloomberg EM Capital Outflows Have Significantly Pressured Currencies Jose Perez-Gorozpe, Mexico City, +52-55-5081-4442, j

6、ose.perez- -30.0%-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0% Saudi Arabia Philippines Poland China Argentina India Malaysia Thailand Turkey Chile Indonesia Colombia South Africa Brazil Russia Mexico Exchange Rate % Change (Jan 1 - Mar 23) Goods Trade | Slump In Global Demand Is Hitting Trade 9 Trade disruptio