2020年7月全球经济情报执行简报 - 麦肯锡（英文版）（6页）.pdf

1、Strategy in China, the indicator showed expansion for a second straight month (51.2) (Exhibit 2). Individual services PMIs reveal expansion only in China (58.4 in June and 55.0 in May); in other countries, the service-sector indicators, though improving, continued to show contraction. Notable is tha

2、t for the eurozone, estimated PMIs for July show a return to expansion for both manufacturing (51.1) and services (55.1). Global trade remains challenged. The CPB World Trade Monitor recorded a contraction of 1.1% in May and 17% for the first five months of 2020 compared with the same periods in 201

3、9 (Exhibit 3). Trade momentum slowed in all surveyed economies on an annual basis, and everywhere remains below pre-COVID-19 levels; on a monthly basis, trade improved in the eurozone, Brazil, and India. The Container Throughput Index was flat, at 107.7 in May (107.8 in April), with elevated through

4、put in Chinese ports only. Exhibit 1 1Data for Brazil and eurozone until May 2020. Source: Banco Central do Brasil; Eurostat; National Bureau of Statistics of China; Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat); US Census Bureau; McKinseys Global Economics Intelligence analysis Retail-sales gr

5、owth by region, % (monthly, year over year) 2010200720152020 20 10 0 10 20 20 10 0 10 20 US China Eurozone Brazil Russia As lockdowns lifted, retail sales became less dismal; sales were clearly positive in the United States, with growth 4.5% higher than in June 2019. 3Global Economics Intelligence e

6、xecutive summary, July 2020 In May, official unemployment rates increased in the eurozone (7.4%), Brazil (12.9%), and Russia (6.1%); the rate declined in the United States but remains historically high (11.1% in June and 13.3% in May). The official rates are understood to be lower than actual unempl