2020年新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）对民航经济效益的影响报告- 国际民航组织（英文版）（63页）.pdf

1、EffectsofNovelCoronavirus (COVID19)onCivilAviation: EconomicImpactAnalysis Montral,Canada 21April2020 Contents Scenario Building Scenario Analysis Impact on International Passenger Seat Capacity (Supply) Impact on International Passenger Numbers (Demand) Impact on Gross Passenger Operating Revenues

2、of Airlines Summary of Key Impact Indicators Appendix A: Situation Overview B: Summary of Analysis by Other Organizations C: Route Group Level Analysis (both international and domestic passenger traffic) 2 The latest estimates indicate that the possible COVID-19 impact on scheduled international pas

3、senger traffic for the first 9 months of 2020, compared to Baseline (business as usual, originally-planned), would be: V-shaped path (a first sign of recovery in late May) Overall reduction ranging from 41% to 56% of seats offered by airlines Overall reduction of 705 to 963 million passengers Approx

4、. USD 160 to 218 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of airlines U-shaped path (restart in third quarter or later) Overall reduction ranging from 57% to 67% of seats offered by airlines Overall reduction of 961 to 1,117 million passengers Approx. USD 218 to 253 billion potential loss

5、of gross operating revenues of airlines The impacts depend on duration and magnitude of the outbreak and containment measures, the degree of consumer confidence for air travel, and economic conditions, etc. 3 Estimatedresultsinbrief ScenarioBuilding Asoverallseverityanddurationofthepandemicarestillu

6、ncertain,sixdifferentrecoverypathsunder twoindicativescenariosaredevelopedtoexplorethepotential“shortterm”economicimplicationof theCOVID19pandemic. 4 Illustrativescenarios: Baseline,VshapedandUshaped 5 3 scenarios to assess the possible economic impact of COVID-19: Baseline: counterfactual scenario,