全球房地产趋势：展望与影响.pdf

1、GLOBAL TRENDS IN REAL ESTATE-OUTLOOK&IMPACTAPI,Cape Town September,20242|2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.The next real estate cycle has already started2MacroRisk and uncertainty will remain elevated Financial markets,geopolitics,domestic policy shifts,evolving future of work,and c

2、limate and AI disruption will create complexity for real estate strategiesInterest rate trajectory is benignThe central bank narrative has shifted substantially in just 6 months.Interest rates will move a lot in next 12 months,but bond markets have priced much of it already.This will support a modes

3、t compression in real estate yields from 2025 in core marketsImproving global growth outlookMomentum building through 2024 into 2025 and 2026 as lower inflation supports a recovery in real income growth,and lower interest rates reduce the headwinds facing the economy.H2 2024 is the start of the new

4、real estate cycle,though nuances remain 1323|2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Capital will prioritise long term income over short term value3CapitalInvestment momentum is returningThe next cycle sees a gradual recovery in investment.Expect 10%growth YoY in 2024 and 2025The market w

5、ill be smaller in the next cycle-c80%of the size of the previous cycleEmerging non-core sectors will increase in relevanceLess leverage and less volatilityMarket is responding to much more stable bond markets but with higher financing costs.Forecasting is more certain with less revisions.Total retur

6、ns driven by income over capital value growthNavigating risk Timing mattersWindow of opportunity for maximum returns is closing as market bottoms out and moves into recovery cycle.Market has re-priced but less distress than was anticipated 12 months ago.1324No lack of capitalFund