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经济学人智库(EIU):2024特朗普风险指数报告-特朗普再次当选美国总统的全球影响(英文版)(16页).pdf

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1、Trump Risk IndexThe global impact of a new US presidencyLONDON Economist Intelligence The Adelphi1-11 John Adam Street,London,WC2N 6HT United Kingdom Tel:+44(0)20 7576 8000 e-mail: GURUGRAM Economist Intelligence TEG India Pvt LtdSkootr Spaces,Unit No.1,12th Floor,Tower B,Building No.9DLF Cyber City

2、,Phase IIIGurugram 122002Haryana,IndiaTel:+91 124 6409486 e-mail:NEW YORK Economist Intelligence 900 Third Avenue16th FloorNew York,NY 10022United StatesTel:+1 212 541 0500e-mail:DUBAI Economist Intelligence PO Box No-450056,Office No-1301A Aurora Tower Dubai Media City Dubai,United Arab Emirates Te

3、l:+971 4 4463 147 e-mail: HONG KONG Economist Intelligence 1301 Cityplaza Four 12 Taikoo Wan Road Taikoo Shing,Hong Kong Tel:+852 2585 3888 e-mail:Intelligence that moves you forwardEIU is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group,a leading source of international business and world

4、affairs information.It provides accurate and impartial intelligence for corporations,governments,financial institutions and academic organisations,inspiring business leaders to identify opportunities and manage risks with confidence since 1946.Our solutionsCountry analysisaccess detailed economic an

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本文主要讨论了特朗普总统对全球经济和地缘政治的影响,特别是通过其政策变化对美国主要贸易伙伴的影响。文章提出了一个“特朗普风险指数”(Trump Risk Index, TRI),该指数通过量化指标衡量美国70个最大贸易伙伴对特朗普政策变化的广泛暴露程度。TRI基于三个领域的评估:贸易、移民和安全,每个领域占40%的权重。 贸易方面,文章指出,特朗普可能会实施保护主义政策,对美国的贸易赤字问题采取行动,包括对敏感商品如钢铁、铝和汽车征收惩罚性关税。 移民和安全方面,文章预测,特朗普政府可能会增加边境墙和其他威慑策略的资金,并加强对移民的驱逐和限制。 根据TRI,墨西哥在所有国家中排名第一,整体风险得分为71.4,这主要是由于其与美国的贸易和移民关系密切。德国和日本等北约(或类似)盟友也位于较易受影响的国家之列。 总的来说,与美国有深厚贸易、安全和文化联系的盟友和伙伴国家,在特朗普总统任内将面临最大的政策变化风险。
特朗普风险指数如何评估各国对特朗普政策变化的暴露程度? 哪些国家在特朗普任内面临最大的贸易和安全政策变化风险? 特朗普政府对移民和边境政策的收紧将如何影响全球?
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