新能泰山-公司深度报告：盘活存量土地业务增长可期助力公司减亏-241018（22页）.pdf

1、 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 投资要点 2 一、盘活存量土地，转型供应链与综合资产运营.4 1.华能集团控股公司，踔厉奋发三十载.4 2.借力国企改革东风，转型供应链与综合资产运营.5 3.归母净利润同比减亏，资产负债率相对稳健.6 二、政策扶持不断强化，产业园业务有望深度受益.8 1.产业园政策支持持续增强，业务场景逐渐增加.8 2.多元发展加深产业链厚度，产业园业务和招商出租率有望提升.11 三、电缆行业规模增长迅速，公司电缆业务有望受益.13 1.多场景应用带动电缆需求，电缆行业规模增长迅速.13 2.电缆业务营收稳定，毛利率显著改善.17 四、盈利预测.18 五、风险提示.20 .4

2、 .5 .6 .6 .6 .7 .7 .7 .13 .13 .14 .14 .15 .15 .16 .16 .17 .17 .8 .9 3 .11 .11 .12 .12 .18 .19 .21 4 5 6 10.369.1411.5110.8410.034.320.480.510.620.680.720.3116.7717.350.180.260.037.2011.0629.0627.472.591.000.470.440.581.20051015202530354045201920202021202220232024H1电缆租赁及物业服务房屋销售、租赁供应链业务其他业务4.862.79-0

3、.94-1.34-0.66-0.35-54.71%-42.59%-133.69%-42.55%50.75%1.15%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%-2-10123456201920202021202220232024H1归母净利润同比增速 7 28.1%21.7%2.2%1.2%4.8%8.4%13.7%7.4%-2.1%-3.4%-4.1%-7.6%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%201920202021202220232024H1销售毛利率销售净利率2.1%1.8%1.1%0.7%1.9%4.0%2.3%2.4%2.0%1.8%4.5%6.8%1.1%1

4、.6%0.8%1.9%3.7%3.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%201920202021202220232024H1销售费用率管理费用率财务费用率研发费用率43.8%45.6%49.5%52.5%51.1%52.1%63.2%65.6%67.7%67.9%67.3%68.2%86.6%84.7%81.8%80.5%76.9%76.1%75.4%76.6%76.2%72.3%68.7%68.3%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%201920202021202220232024H1新能泰山招商蛇口新城控股金地

5、集团 8 9 10 11 12 13 39%22%15%13%8%3%电力电缆电气装备电缆裸电线(导线)绕组线通信电缆附件 14 0.991.031.081.121.171.600.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.8201820192020202120222027E 15 16 17 1713206425393173361841535033576167307978919310292112251401172620742361265831693884435451876303725480138543020004000600080001000012000201120122013201420

6、1520162017201820192020202120222023城市轨道交通运营线路长度地铁运营线路长度10.36 9.14 11.51 10.84 10.03 4.32 9.8%10.7%6.7%5.4%5.6%8.7%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%02468101214201920202021202220232024H1电缆业务电缆业务毛利率 18 19 20 21 2021202220232024E2025E2021202220232024E2025E2.9 2.8 1.3 1.2 1.3 41.81 39.84 14.57 11.75 12.91 18.7 16.3 14.5 1