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非洲开发银行:2020非洲经济展望报告(英文版)(92页).pdf

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1、2020 Coping with the COVID-19 Pandemic S o u t h e r n A f r i c a E c o n o m i c O u t l o o k 2 0 2 0 ii Copyright 2020 African Development Bank African Development Bank Group Avenue Joseph Anoma 01 BP 1387 Abidjan 01 Cte dIvoire www.afdb.org The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein d

2、o not necessarily reflect the official views of the African Development Bank, its Boards of Directors, or the countries they represent. This document, as well as any data and maps included, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international

3、 frontiers and boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city, or area. Cover design by the African Development Bank based on images from S ISBN 978-9973-9847-6-0 (print) ISBN 978-9973-9848-6-9 (electronic) You may copy, download, or print this material for your own use, and you may include exce

4、rpts from this publication in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites, and teaching materials, as long as the African Development Bank is suitably acknowledged as the source and copyright owner. S o u t h e r n A f r i c a E c o n o m i c O u t l o o k 2 0 2 0 iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS T he So

5、uthern Africa Regional Economic Outlook 2020 was prepared in the Vice Presidency for Economic Governance and Knowledge Management, under the supervision and general direc- tion of Charles Leyeka Lufumpa, Acting Vice President and Chief Economist, and Emmanuel Pinto Moreira, Director, Country Economi

6、cs Department. The preparation of the Outlook was led by Auma George Kararach, Lead Economist, Southern Africa Regional Business Delivery Office and George Honde, Lead Economist, Southern Africa Regional Business Delivery Office. Tricia Baidoo provided excellent administrative and logistical support

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本文主要讨论了南部非洲地区在COVID-19大流行前的宏观经济趋势和近期发展。主要内容包括: 1. 南部非洲地区经济增长在2011-2017年间高于其他地区,但2018-2019年下降至最低水平。2020年,受COVID-19影响,经济增长预计将放缓。 2. 服务业是南部非洲国家GDP的主要贡献者,超过50%。COVID-19疫情通过旅行限制和社交隔离机制影响服务业。 3. 南部非洲国家出口表现疲软,主要出口商品价格波动和产量下降。COVID-19疫情可能进一步影响出口。 4. 南部非洲国家经常账户赤字,2020年预计将进一步恶化。 5. 南部非洲国家财政赤字,2020年预计将进一步扩大。 6. 南部非洲国家外债水平持续上升,2019年达到GDP的56.4%。COVID-19疫情可能加剧财政压力。 7. 南部非洲国家通胀率波动,2019年达到9.8%。COVID-19疫情可能影响通胀控制。 8. 南部非洲国家货币贬值,2019年津巴布韦货币贬值700.7%。COVID-19疫情可能加剧货币贬值。 9. 南部非洲国家劳动力市场存在技能短缺,教育体系未能适应未来技能需求。 10. 南部非洲国家教育支出不足,公共资金占主导地位,私营部门参与有限。 综上所述,南部非洲国家面临经济增长放缓、出口疲软、财政赤字扩大、外债上升、通胀压力、货币贬值和技能短缺等多重挑战。COVID-19疫情可能加剧这些挑战,影响经济稳定和增长。
南部非洲经济前景如何? 南部非洲如何应对COVID-19疫情? 南部非洲教育发展面临哪些挑战?
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