硅谷银行（SVB）：2020年美国葡萄酒行业状况报告（英文版）（71页）.pdf

1、State of the US Wine Industry 2020 Written by Rob McMillan, EVP and Founder Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division Contents 1. Introduction 3 2. Executive summary 6 Seven headwinds 8 Seven tailwinds 9 3. 2019 predictions in review 10 What we got right 11 What we got wrong 12 4. 2020 US wine business pred

2、ictions and observations 13 Supply 14 Demand 15 Price 15 5. Grape and wine supply 16 The 2001 planting bubble 17 The 2020 grape market have we been here before? 20 The bulk wine market 22 Implications for 2020 24 6. Wine sales 26 Winery shipments 28 Generics and wines below $9 still declining 30 Mid

3、-price premium growth, but declining growth 32 Luxury wine threats and opportunities 33 Direct to consumer positive growth but slowing 35 Restaurant sales 35 Formats, varietals and packaging 36 Substitutes spirits, cannabis and imports 39 Spirits 40 Cannabis 41 Imports 44 Other substitutes 46 7. Dem

4、ographics and marketing 48 Cohort consumption 50 The millennial “Indulgence Gap” 52 The missing millennial 52 Marketing wine to millennials 54 Sales and marketing for family wineries 57 Cracks in the tasting room model 58 Todays wine tourist 59 Direct to consumer: Where we need to go next 60 8. Land

5、 and M lower in alcohol, carbs and calories; transparent with ingredients; refreshing and healthier than other alcohol beverage alternatives. In some ways, its a bit like the introduction of light beer in 1973, which was targeted to appeal to consumers concerned about their weight.53 Are hard seltze

6、rs a wine substitute, or could they be a gateway in the same way wine coolers were a gateway for the boomers move into wine? If you believe the “share of gullet” theory, then they are a substitute. The early research that has been done suggests that at least 40 percent of the growth in hard seltzers