【中信期货】3月资产配置月报：扰动下的均衡配置-260305（30页）.pdf

1、重要提示：重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。相关人员为客户。This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business.The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do n

2、ot constitute investment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures will not consider relevant personnel as customers due to their attention,receipt,or reading of this report.Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License 2012 No.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究中信期货国际化研究|CITIC Futures Internati

3、onal Research 2026/3/5 Assets Allocation in March 2026:Balanced Portfolio Amid Disturbance 3 月资产配置月报月资产配置月报：扰动下的均衡配置：扰动下的均衡配置 摘要摘要 Abstract China domestic policies have taken the lead in boosting a strong start to the year,and the trend of inflation recovery continues.Global markets are focused on m

4、ultiple key themes,including geopolitical tensions,the Walsh factor,and tariff developments.Although these factors have caused some market volatility,overall risk appetite remains relatively high.We recommend maintaining balanced positioning while gradually increasing risk exposure,closely monitorin

5、g developments in geopolitical conflicts,tariff negotiations,and major policy meetings.Risks:Geopolitical risks;Unexpected strengthening of the US economy,which could undermine the logic of interest rate cuts;Chinese domestic incremental policies and economic recovery falling short of expectations;U

6、nforeseen tightening of liquidity;Unexpected rebound of the US dollar index.国内政策靠前发力支撑开门红，通胀回升趋势延续。海外聚焦地缘、沃什、关税等多条主线，虽对市场带来扰动，但市场风险偏好仍相对偏高。我们建议在密切追踪地缘冲突、关税进展和重要会议的同时，可以在均衡配置的基础上提升风险偏好。风险因素：风险因素：1）地缘风险；2）美国经济意外走强，导致降息逻辑破坏；3）国内增量政策和经济修复不及预期；4）流动性超预期收紧；5）美元指数超预期反弹。姜 婧 Jiang Jing 从业资格号 Qualification No.