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汇丰HSBC:汽车行业研究:比亚迪VS.特斯拉:执行VS.愿景-260210(中译版)(82页).pdf

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1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ A vast

2、 valuation gap for businesses that are more similar than they are different vision trumps execution it seems BYD deserves more credit for being Chinas EV leader with global growth ambitions;it leads in tech and execution Tesla is more than an auto company,rather an AI innovator,but timing of deliver

3、y and scale of the reward are unknown Our new In Stereo series brings together two companies running similar businesses but operating in very different geographies to refresh our understanding of their strategies and outlooks.Subscribe here to the series.BYD vs Tesla:Until recently,their fortunes se

4、emed correlated but in the past six months their share prices have widely diverged and the gap between Teslas and BYDs market cap has grown to 14x.We are not convinced that there is a good reason for why.Both are leaders in EVs,although BYD is more successful and likely to extend its lead.The future

5、 is in autonomous driving and Tesla might have the edge here,but it is debatable as it is by no means alone in this space.Tesla also appears to be ahead of BYD in robotaxis,but it is not the market leader as it once was in EVs.Their growth paths clearly differ:for BYD it is large-scale,ultra-efficie

6、nt manufacturing that accelerates global expansion vs Teslas disruptive innovation that might see the demise of personal vehicle ownership and the rise of humanoid robots.One future is tangible and well-funded,the other more speculative and potentially requiring more capital;we dont think the valuat

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1. **估值差距**:特斯拉与比亚迪市值差距达14倍,但HSBC认为差距不合理,两者均为EV领导者,比亚迪技术领先且执行更强。 2. **增长路径**:比亚迪依赖大规模制造与全球扩张(2025海外销量104.6万辆,2026e预计增60%);特斯拉转向AI创新(机器人出租车、人形机器人),但未来收益不确定。 3. **区域表现**:比亚迪82%销量来自中国,海外加速布局(泰国、巴西等工厂);特斯拉全球份额下滑,欧洲销量降,中国市场份额从34%降至27%。 4. **产品策略**:比亚迪全价格段覆盖(10万-200万美元),2026e推新一代EV平台;特斯拉聚焦Model 3/Y,缺乏新车型,转向AI。 5. **财务建议**:HSBC维持比亚迪“买入”(目标价139港元/123元人民币, upside 52%/37%),特斯拉“减持”(目标价133美元, downside 67%)。
比亚迪 vs 特斯拉,谁更强? 电动车巨头,未来谁主沉浮? 特斯拉的AI梦,能成真吗?
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