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毕马威(KPMG):2026澳大利亚住宅地产市场展望报告(英文版)(20页).pdf

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1、January 2026Residential Property MarketOutlook KPMG Australia2026 KPMG,an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.The KPMG name a

2、nd logo are trademarks used under license by the independent member firms of the KPMG global organisation.Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.2Residential Property Market OutlookContentsExecutive summary03Market overview05Recent trends in factors influenci

3、ng property prices06Forecasts11Contacts1732026 KPMG,an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.The KPMG name and logo are tradema

4、rks used under license by the independent member firms of the KPMG global organisation.Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.Residential Property Market OutlookExecutivesummaryHousing market momentum strengthened through 2025,validating our earlier forecast

5、that conditions would improve despite widespread pessimism earlier last year.Our directional call was right,with structural force persistent supply shortages,improved confidence as financial conditions stabilised,and elevated rents increasing the appeal of ownership supporting broad-based price grow

6、th nationwide.However,our point forecasts published in August 2025 underestimated the magnitude of the upswing.National house prices rose 8.6%and national unit prices rose by 7.3%in the 12 months to the December quarter 2025.This represents the strongest calendar year gain in home values since 2021,

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1. **2025年房价超预期增长**:全国房价涨8.6%,单元房涨7.3%,创2021年以来最大年度涨幅,主因供应短缺、信心改善及租金上涨推高购房吸引力。 2. **2026年预测**:预计全国房价涨7.7%,单元房涨7.1%,受金融条件稳定及供应紧张支撑,低价房因5%首付计划表现更优。 3. **供应不足持续**:未来两年住房供应缺口约30%,年均净供应仅15万-17万套,远低于需求。 4. **区域差异**:珀斯(2025年房价涨16.4%)、布里斯班(13.4%)领跑;2026年珀斯预计涨13%,悉尼涨6%。 5. **政策影响**:5%首付计划加速需求释放,但未解决核心 affordability 问题,需结构性供应改革。
房价会涨多少? 买房时机到了吗? 哪里投资最划算?
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