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1、Mapping the Future of Autonomous Trucking October 2022 By Brian Collie,Jordan Decker,Jamie Fishman,Augustin K.Wegscheider,Michael Wiesinger,and Raj Sridhara Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest oppo

2、rtunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow,build sustainable competitive advantage,and drive positive societal impact.Our

3、 diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives that question the status quo and spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting,technology and design,and corporate and digital ventures.We work in a uniquely collaborative

4、model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,fueled by the goal of helping our clients thrive and enabling them to make the world a better place.Kodiak Robotics,Inc.was founded in 2018 to develop autonomous technology that carries freight forwardso people,partners,and t

5、he planet thrive.The company is developing an industry-leading technology stack purpose-built specifically for long-haul trucks,making the freight industry safer and more efficient.Kodiaks unique modular hardware approach integrates sensors into a streamlined sensor-pod structure that optimizes for

6、perception,scalability,and maintainability.The company delivers freight for its customers daily across six states,operating autonomously on the highway portions of the routes.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP X KODIAK 1Mapping the Future of Autonomous TruckingA critical factor is the ability of AV providers a

7、nd fleet operators to identify the most appropriate routes on which to trial and ultimately operate their autonomous commercial vehicles.In early 2022,BCG collaborated with Kodiak,one of the leading players in autonomous trucking,to identify the most promising routes between major metropolitan areas

8、(MAs)in the continental United States.BCGs data analytics group BCG GAMMA developed an interactive dashboard that applies a prioritization algorithm to define optimal routes according to filters chosen by the user.In this article,we explain how Kodiak used the tool to validate strategic decisions an

9、d guide its expansion plans.We also invite readers to experiment with the tool to generate custom maps of ranked routes well-suited for autonomous trucking.The Business Benefits and Technical Advantages of Autonomous TrucksA key aspect of the artificial intelligence(AI)technology behind autonomous v

10、ehicles is that it tends to have an easier time handling traffic situations that occur frequently.This makes it well-suited for interstate highways,which are built to the same general standards and typically have fewer obstacles and hazards,such as pedestrians,bicyclists,and children at play that co

11、uld befuddle an AV navigating an urban or suburban street.Autonomous vehicles also tend to perform better on highways due to the fact that the other vehicles around them are moving in the same direction and within a narrow band of speeds,with oncoming traffic separated by a clearly defined median ba

12、rrier.For these reasons,solving the technical hurdles for autonomous trucks could be easier than for passenger cars or taxiswith human-driven trucks handling the first and last miles of the journey on surface streets.Autonomous trucks also hold the potential to solve one of the biggest problems plag

13、uing the trucking industry todaya massive labor shortage.In 2021,the American Trucking Associations estimated that the industry faced a historic shortfall of 80,000 drivers,with expectations that the shortage could exceed 160,000 drivers by 2030 given current driver demographics and expected growth

14、in freight volumes.The Financial Times reports that the situa-tion is much the same in Europe,where in 2021 the EU faced a shortage of 400,000 heavy-goods vehicle drivers.According to a US Department of Transportation study,while autonomous vehicles could eventually lead to job losses in the truckin

15、g industry,human drivers will still be needed for the foreseeable future to operate trucks on the first and last miles of routes.Long-haul trucking jobs in particular are challenging to fill since many drivers are reluctant to be away from home on jobs that often involve being on the road for three

16、to six weeks at a time.Drivers handling first-mile and last-mile routes in autonomous trucks could work close to home,which could make it easier for trucking companies to hire and retain the staff they need.Autonomous vehicle(AV)technology has the potential to transform how people and goods move thr

17、ough the world.Personal autonomous cars get most of the media attention,but long-haul trucks actually offer one of the most appealing use cases for full self-driving vehicles.Autonomous driving technologies could reduce the total cost of ownership of long-haul trucking by more than 30%.BOSTON CONSUL

18、TING GROUP X KODIAK 3The financial case for autonomous trucking is also compelling.Autonomous driving technologies could reduce the total cost of ownership(TCO)of long-haul trucking by more than 30%through labor savings and driving efficiency gains.Because trucks would no longer have to sit idle whi

19、le their drivers rest due to shift limits,vehicle utilization could more than double,dramatically increasing productivity.(See Exhibit 1.)Recognizing the strong business case for self-driving trucks,a number of autonomous driving companiesincluding Aurora,Einride,Embark,Kodiak,Plus,Torc,TuSimple,and

20、 Waymohave been building the technology to bring solutions to market while forging partnerships with(or in the case of Torc,being acquired by)OEM trucking companies and fleet operators.AV companies are starting pilot programs to put autono-mous trucks on highways.So far,these self-driving vehicles m

21、ostly have a“safety driver”behind the wheel,ready to take control at a moments notice if the AI needs help.As they look to expand their roadway networks beyond the pilot phase,companies need to identify which trucking hubs are best suited to AV fleets and determine which point-to-point routes and mu

22、lti-hop corridors should be prioritized.Cost savingsGreater efficiencyWorkforce supportPotential for 30%reduction in total cost of ownership from lower driver costs and gains in driving efficiencySafetyWill likely help reduce accidents and casualtiesSustainabilityMore consistent driving and less idl

23、e time expected to reduce fuel consumption and emissions by 10-15%Uptime per vehicle could more than double due to avoidance of rest times and hourly shift limitsMay help resolve driver shortages in numerous developed marketsExhibit 1-Autonomous Commercial Vehicles Offer Major Potential Cost,Efficie

24、ncy,and Workforce BenefitsSource:BCG analysis.4 MAPPING THE FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS TRUCKINGFiltering and Prioritizing Autonomous Trucking RoutesKodiak,headquartered in Mountain View,California,set up its commercial operations hub in Texaswhere the warm weather,dense freight volume,friendly legislative

25、 environ-ment,and lengthy limited-access highway shipping corri-dors are all conducive to autonomous trucking operations.1 Kodiak operates its vehicles in 10 states,both on test runs and carrying customer cargo between its Dallas headquar-ters and four other cities:Houston,Austin,Oklahoma City,and A

26、tlanta.Recently,Kodiak completed a coast-to-coast pilot run between San Francisco and Jacksonville,Florida.2 The company believes that its proprietary“sparse”map-ping technique,which omits extraneous information to focus on essential geometric,topological,and semantic highway attributes,can help the

27、 company scale up quickly and is a strong competitive differentiator.BCG GAMMA and Kodiak worked together to identify the most promising potential autonomous trucking routes between major metropolitan areas in the continental United States.We ultimately settled on five main criteria for evaluating s

28、uch routes.(See Exhibit 2.)Our prioritization algorithm calculates optimal routes based on freight density and the density of truck stops and warehouses.Routes with higher density of these factors receive a higher ranking.Users can then apply map over-layssuch as distance,weather,and AV legislationt

29、o show route results that meet these criteria.For one of the overlays,we captured congestion information on the met-ropolitan areas by using data on highway traffic delays from Texas A&M Transportation Institute,adding an addi-tional consideration for fleet operators.1.Reuters describes the regulato

30、ry environment for autonomous vehicles in Texas as being“highly permissive”for both testing and deployment with“minimal rules and oversight.”(“How free-wheeling Texas became the self-driving trucking industrys promised land”(June 17,2022).2.Kodiak,“Kodiak Robotics Names 10 Roads Express as a Partner

31、;Expands Autonomous Freight Service to Florida”(July 26,2022).Exhibit 2-An Analytical Approach to Prioritize Autonomous Trucking Routes Source:BCG analysis.OutputsFreight corridors between metropolitan areas on routes over 200 milesHigh-volume corridorsof heavy commercialtruck trafficFavorable auton

32、omous vehicle legislationAnalyzed over 2,200 freight corridors across 34 statesCreated prioritized index for top-ranked routes in four distance categoriesHigh density of truck stops,travel centers,and warehouses nearhighway exitsWarm weather without snow or iceBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP X KODIAK 5Main

33、Criteria for Evaluating Autonomous Truck Routes Distance.We grouped routes into four distance categories:200 to 350 miles,350 to 600 miles,600 to 1,200 miles,and 1,200+miles.The shortest category represents the num-ber of miles that an AV trucking company could handle now with a shift-limited safety

34、 driver in the vehicle.The longer categories(especially the 600+mile categories)represent future driverless routes that a human driver could not cover in a single shift.AV Legislation.We added a legislation-related segmenta-tion for routes to be able to filter from the list of all poten-tial routes

35、those that could be categorized as“driverless ready”or“testing ready and above”according to state-level AV laws at both origin and destination.Weather.We classified MAs based on whether they were in the“Sun Belt”to account for the fact that current AV technology has an easier time navigating areas w

36、here ice and snow rarely impact travel conditions.3Freight Density.We leveraged the 2017 Commodity Flow Survey(CFS)for data on the round-trip freight volume transported by trucks between MA pairs.This survey,a joint effort of the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics,the US Department of Transporta

37、tion,and the US Census Bureau,is conducted every five years as part of the Economic Census.Density of Truck Stops and Warehouses.We calculated the density of truck stops and warehouses near highways within each MA.This is important for AV companies as they develop long-term plans for a route network

38、,because even when completely autonomous trucks are deployed on highways,they will initially still need to stop at waypoints near highways so that drivers can complete the last few miles of the off-highway route to their destinations.In fact,Kodiak recently announced a partnership with travel center

39、 operator Pilot Co.to collaborate on development of autonomous truck services at Pilot and Flying J travel centers across North America.The companies will start by developing an autonomous truckport in the Atlanta region,where vehicles could have special designated spaces to pick up and drop off loa

40、ds,transfer data,and undergo inspection,maintenance,and refueling.43.BCG and Kodiak applied the classification defined by the Rice University Kinder Institute for Urban Research to define the Sun Belt zone as covering those areas south of 36.5 degrees latitude.Routes were classified as“Sun Belt”if b

41、oth the origin and destination MAs were in the Sun Belt,and as“not Sun Belt”if either the origin or destination was outside the Sun Belt.4.Transport Topics,“Pilot,Kodiak Partner on Autonomous Truck Services”(August 23,2022).One of the best business cases for autonomous trucking involves the vehicles

42、 ability to improve asset utilization dramatically and operate on routes that human drivers cannot complete in a single day.6 MAPPING THE FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS TRUCKINGUse the tools interactive dashboard to generate a list of potential AV trucking routes based on your filter selections.Click the dash

43、board below to get started.Take Our Route Finder Dashboard for a SpinMousing over the west coast route displays a pop-up with details.Source:BCG analysis.The AV route finder dashboard offers a variety of settings and filters that enable users to identify routes that meet specific criteria.Maps displ

44、aying the result of a search include visual keys to distinguish key factors.For example:You can choose to see routes within a specific distance range as well as routes within and outside the Sun Belt.You can filter routes according to whether they pass through states with AV legislation in place for

45、 testing or driverless-ready operations.You can limit the results to metro areas with many high-way truck stops and favorable traffic congestion levels.You can apply the CFS Area filter to view only those routes that pass through a specific MA.Once you have applied filters,you can generate a map of

46、ranked MA pair routes that fit the filter criteria,or display only the top-ranked routes in this group.Various elements on the map offer key details on routes and MAs.For example,the thickness of the lines indicates freight volume along the routes.The size of the dots mark-ing MA end-points indicate

47、s the number of truck stops within a 100 highway-mile radius.The color of the MA dots denotes traffic congestion.You can also zoom in to the map to see more detail and better distinguish overlapping routes.Finally,mousing over a route opens a pop-up window with additional information.BOSTON CONSULTI

48、NG GROUP X KODIAK 7Tool Findings Help Guide Decisions for KodiakBy ranking routes based on scores generated by the prioritization algorithm,the tool provides interesting insights.In Kodiaks case,the dashboard helped the company validate its decision to make Dallas/Fort Worth its initial base of comm

49、ercial operations.(See Exhibit 3.)The tool showed that Dallas/Fort Worth has the highest Class 8 truck volume in the country.Many of the highest-ranking routes identified by the dashboard had Texas as an endpoint,including intra-Texas routes such as Dallas/Fort Worth to Houston,Austin,and San Antoni

50、o,as well as interstate routes including Dallas/Fort Worth to Atlanta and to Los Angeles.The tool also confirmed Kodiaks belief that Atlanta has strong potential to serve as a future autonomous trucking hub based on scores for routes originating or ending there,as well as the linkages it provides to

51、 other important hubs along the eastern seaboard.By focusing our analysis on Sun Belt routes that are 200 to 350 miles long(regardless of AV legislation status or congestion),Dallas/Fort WorthHouston emerges as the top priority route,with Dallas/Fort WorthAustin and Los AngelesLas Vegas rounding out

52、 the top three.Looking deeper into the ranking,we see Dallas/Fort Worth as an endpoint in the fourth ranked route,connecting to San Antonio,Texas.There are also some clusters of geographic routes in Florida and out of Atlanta among the other top-ten routes in this category.(See Exhibit 4.)2022 Mapbo

53、x OpenStreetMapExhibit 3-Dallas/Forth Worth Is a Key Hub for Many Promising Autonomous Truck RoutesSource:BCG analysis.8 MAPPING THE FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS TRUCKINGUnlocking the Full Potential of AVs on Longer RoutesLooking ahead,one of the best business cases for autono-mous trucking involves the veh

54、icles ability to improve asset utilization dramatically and operate on routes that human drivers cannot complete in a single day.Currently,Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration rules specify that a long-haul truck driver in the US can only drive for 11 hours(and work for 14 consecutive hours a

55、fter coming on duty)before they have to stop and rest for at least 10 consecutive hours off duty.European Commission rules on mobility and transport are even more strict,with drivers typically capped at a maximum of 9 hours of driving per day and 90 hours total within a 14-day period.Longer routes t

56、hat exceed hourly restrictions for human drivers are going to be most relevant for autonomous trucks.Looking at all routes between 600 and 1,200 miles,the dashboard shows that the top three most promising Sun Belt routes regardless of AV legislation or congestion operate through Atlanta(AtlantaDalla

57、s/Fort Worth,Atlan-taMiami,and AtlantaHouston).Additional routes in the top ten highlight connections with critical intranational distribution hubs(Dallas/Fort-Worth and Atlanta),interna-tional port cities(Miami and Houston),and border cities(Laredo and El Paso).Congestion may be a concern with seve

58、ral of these hubs,but all provide a high density of truck stops and warehouses to support autonomous truck-ing operations.(See Exhibit 5.)312104856795479Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St.Lucie,FL Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach,FLDallas-Fort Worth,TX-OK San Antonio-New Braunfels,TXJacksonville-St.Marys-Pa

59、latka,FL-GA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St.Lucie,FLAtlanta-Athens-Clarke County-Sandy Springs,GA Charlotte-Concord,NC-SC321086Austin-Round Rock,TX Dallas-Fort Worth,TX-OKMiami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St.Lucie,FL Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater,FLLas Vegas-Henderson,NV-AZ Los Angeles-Long Beach,CAJacksonv

60、ille-St.Marys-Palatka,FL-GA Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater,FLAtlanta-Athens-Clarke County-Sandy Springs,GA Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro,TN1Dallas-Fort Worth,TX-OK Houston-The Woodlands,TX 2022 Mapbox OpenStreetMapExhibit 4-Top Ten 200350 Mile Sun Belt Routes Regardless of AV LegislationSource:BCG

61、 analysis.BCG GAMMAs dashboard can identify potential routes to capitalize fully on the promise of autonomous trucking.10 MAPPING THE FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS TRUCKINGIn addition to driving further than humans can drive without needing to stop and rest,an autonomous truck theoretically can operate aroun

62、d the clockexcept for essential stops when human drivers would step in to help with maintenance,refueling,and loading and unloading cargo.Thus,AV trucks not only would allow fleet managers to reduce labor costs and deliver goods faster,but would also enable companies to achieve far more gross tonnag

63、e freight miles with the same fleet or potentially fewer trucks.Indeed,Kodiak has already demonstrated the potential for autonomous trucks to improve utilization by running them on the Dallas to Atlanta route through a partnership with U.S.Xpress,one of the largest truckload carriers in the country.

64、5 In trial runs,a Kodiak truck using autonomous highway driving technology along with human safety drivers drove 6,350 miles and delivered eight commercial loads in fewer than six days.This represented truck utilization more than twice that of a typical manual truck controlled by a human driver foll

65、owing mandatory rest break rules.15432108769 2022 Mapbox OpenStreetMapTop 10 Lanes 6001200 miles in the Sun Belt regardless of AV legislation54Dallas-Fort Worth,TX-OK Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale,AZHouston-The Woodlands,TX Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St.Lucie,FL32Atlanta-Athens-Clarke County-Sandy Springs

66、,GA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St.Lucie,FLAtlanta-Athens-Clarke County-Sandy Springs,GA Houston-The Woodlands,TX79El Paso-Las Cruces,TX-NM Laredo,TXMemphis-Forrest City,TN-MS-AR Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St.Lucie,FL1086Dallas-Fort Worth,TX-OK El Paso-Las Cruces,TX-NMAtlanta-Athens-Clarke County-San

67、dy Springs,GA Laredo,TXLaredo,TX Memphis-Forrest City,TN-MS-AR1Atlanta-Athens-Clarke County-Sandy Springs,GA Dallas-Fort Worth,TX-OKExhibit 5-Atlanta,Miami,and Laredo Are Prominent Hubs for Routes in the 6001,200 Mile RangeSource:BCG analysis.5.Kodiak,“Kodiak Robotics and U.S.Xpress Announce Partner

68、ship;Pilot Continuous Autonomous Freight Operations Between Dallas-Fort Worth and Atlanta”(April 7,2022).BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP X KODIAK 11Exploring Potential Opportunities and Benefits of Autonomous TruckingWhile autonomous trucks will not completely replace human drivers anytime soon,they do prom

69、ise to ease the labor shortage by taking on the grueling job of transporting freight long distances on interstate highways.Human drivers will most likely focus on handling the first and last miles of the route.This will allow drivers to get home every night,which should go a long way toward making i

70、t easier to retain current drivers and recruit new ones.Autonomous vehicle technology has been the subject of much research over the past decade.Studies project that autonomous trucks will offer major benefits,particularly in terms of solving labor shortages and reducing total cost of ownership for

71、long-haul fleet operators.To realize these benefits and get the most value from AV trucks,it makes sense for companies to start planning which routes make the most sense for expanding their operations.Tools like the BCG GAMMA dashboard can help players identify the top AV trucking routes to priori-t

72、izeboth in the current pilot phase and when taking the industry to scaleto capitalize fully on the promise and potential of autonomous trucking.12 MAPPING THE FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS TRUCKINGAbout the AuthorsBrian Collie is a managing director and senior partner in BCGs Chicago office.You may contact h

73、im by email at .Jordan Decker is data and analytics director,geoanalytics,at BCG GAMMA in Chicago.You may contact him by email at .Jamie Fishman is a data and analytics lead,geoanalytics,at BCG GAMMA in Chicago.You may contact him by email at .Augustin K.Wegscheider is a managing director and partne

74、r in BCGs Chicago office.You may contact him by email at .Michael Wiesinger is head of commercialization at Kodiak Robotics.You may contact him by email at miwkodiak.ai.Raj Sridhara is a product operations manager at Kodiak Robotics.You may contact him by email at r.sridharakodiak.ai.For Further Con

75、tactIf you would like to discuss this report,please contact the authors.Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,

76、we help clients with total transformationinspiring complex change,enabling organizations to grow,building competitive advantage,and driving bottom-line impact.To succeed,organizations must blend digital and human capabilities.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and

77、a range of perspectives to spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting along with technology and design,corporate and digital venturesand business purpose.We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization

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