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B端产量和商业土地价格之间的关系

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所属报告：

三全食品-公司深度报告：三枝繁茂荣全面春光望-230328（33页）.pdf

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回顾日本速冻食品发展， BC 两端呈现分离驱动态势。B 端：电冰箱、冷链运输成熟为基石，人力成本和土地价格为推手。1967 年，日本电冰箱普及率达到 70%， 1965 年日本出台“冷藏链劝告”（‘Admonishment of Cold Chain’）开始大力扶持冷链基础设施建设，并于 70 年代中期在全国范围构建了较为完善的冷链体系。因此，B 端具备了发展的先决条件。与此同时，人力成本和土地价格的持续攀升迫使 B 端降本，而餐饮企业中成本占比第二高的人力成本可以有效通过速冻食品解决，因为标准化食材能够减少人工需求和厨房面积，从而减少房租和人工成本。根据《2022年中国连锁餐饮行业报告》中测算的数据，在堂食场景中，房租和人工租金摊销约占总成本的 25.00%、仅次于原材料成本。在外卖场景中，一份 17.5 元的卤肉饭使用了预制菜后可以降低 1.5 元的人工与租金摊销成本，使得人工租金成本下降达60.00%，并将净利润从 0.5 元提高到 3 元，提高 14.29%的净利润。除此之外，使用预制菜可以将顾客等候时长从 40 分钟降低到 28 分钟，周转率提高 30.00%。除此之外，还有日本餐饮连锁化率提升、日本女性就业率提高等次要原因共同推动日本 B端的发展，但其并非主要因素。当土地价格和人力成本分别于 1991 年和 1997 年见顶之后，B 端的需求于 1997 年出现极点，随后开始下滑，B 端的大增长时代结束，此后B端产量再未回到最高水平，长期来看呈现下降态势。出现极点的原因有两种，其可能是源于供给冲击、即工厂数量锐减导致的产量下滑，也有可能来源于需求冲击、即需求端对调理食品的需求下滑。由于 1999 年后工厂数量与 B 端产量不存在显著的负相关关系，因此该极点出现的原因主要来自于需求一端；1997 年后 B 端工厂数量开始下滑，市场开始由增量竞争转向存量竞争。根据数据，工厂数量下滑的产量并未产生太多下降，说明单厂产量开始上升。

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