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第二代制冷剂R22价格与价差变化情况

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所属报告：

基础化工行业：含氟制冷剂及氟化液行业分析框架-220707（57页）.pdf

打包全文图表

➢ R22上一波景气周期出现于2010年-2011年。2010年，国家开始实行萤石开采和生产总量限制，出台了一系列政策和措施对氟化工产业发展加以规范和扶持，并实施“家电下乡”、“以旧换新”等家电产业政策，叠加全球及全国范围内普遍的高温天气等，直接刺激了空调、冰箱的需求。在供需双重发力的作用下，萤石、氢氟酸、制冷剂、氟化铝等氟化工产业链的主要产品价格全面上涨，R22最高价格达到28000元/吨随后震荡回落。自2011下半年起，在国内氟化工产能持续高速扩张，而下游需求保持低迷的背景下，氟化工市场经历了持续2年的“寒潮期”。2015年上半年，受配额削减限制、2季度传统旺季等利好影响，R22价格维持震荡坚挺走势。随后在需求不及预期、受地下工厂以配额外低价产品冲击市场的背景下，R22价格再次进入下行通道。受供给侧改革推动，氟化工低端产业链产能陆续淘汰、国家开始实施萤石资源税改革，同时我国家用空调和电冰箱消费结构升级与大批量更新等，2017年初，我国氟化工行业明确了周期反转，氟产业链产品价格从底部区间开始反弹。2017-2018年间，我国氟化工行业维持高景气，制冷剂产品价格全线上涨，R22价格最高达24000元/吨。进入2019年空调“冷年”，在大环境不景气、制冷剂终端需求疲软等利空因素影响下，萤石盘整、氢氟酸价格震荡走低，制冷剂产品全线震荡走弱。近几年，每至年底，萤石供应有所减少，企业R22配额余量基本用尽，厂家接单较少，主要按生产前期低价订单为主，市场上存在断货现象，R22价格高位维稳。2020年以来，受NCP疫情、经济周期下行、中美贸易摩擦等影响，空调、汽车行业产销量双双下滑，氟化工产业链终端需求减弱。相较于三代制冷剂，受配额管理的R22产品价格则维持相对坚挺。

行业数据原图定位