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未来20年我国民航领域高温合金需求测算
未来20年我国民航领域高温合金需求测算
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抚顺特钢-技改项目持续推进镍价上涨拖累业绩-220904（16页）.pdf
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2020 年中国航空航天领域高温合金需求约为 2.8 万吨，其中民品需求占比约 60%，为1.7 万吨。未来十年，中国民用飞机用高温合金年均需求增量约 0.75 万吨，2030 年民品需求将达 9.1万吨，10年年均复合增速 18.6%。根据西部超导招股说明书，我们依旧假设高温合金重量占单台发动机重量的比重为 50%，成材率为 20%，测算出未来 20 年中国民航领域高温合金累计需求增量约为 14.9 万吨，年均需求增量 0.75 万吨。由于我们从中国商飞获得的数据是未来 20 年新增飞机数量，并以此测算出未来 20 年民航领域新增高温合金需求量，为了和军品领域需求测算周期保持一致，进而测算出航空航天领域未来 10 年整体高温合金需求增量，我们假设民用航空领域高温合金需求未来 20 年保持线性增长，据此测算出未来10 年民航领域年均高温合金需求增量 0.75 万吨。
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抚顺特钢-技改项目持续推进镍价上涨拖累业绩-220904（16页）.pdf
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