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物流总需求有望随政策转向二次腾飞
物流总需求有望随政策转向二次腾飞
行业数据
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所属报告：
物流行业：高端制造的重要拼图智慧仓储物流产业迎黄金发展-210826（20页）.pdf
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图1.2：国内需求支撑了从2021-2023年能源冲击中的复苏
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2026-07-21
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图15.2024年中国调味品需求端比例
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全球MDI需求量及增速
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2026-07-21
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全球MDI下游需求结构
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2026-07-21
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2026-07-21
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物流行业的总需求与制造业息息相关，十四五期间我国物流行业总需求或稳步提升。近 10年来，我国工业品物流总额占物流总额整体的比例始终维持在 90%左右，是我国物流需求的中流砥柱。 2012年以来，我国物流总额增速有所放缓，增长略慢于 GDP的增长，这或是十二五、十三五期间着重发展第三产业的导向有关。但是“十四五”规划明确提出要“深入实施制造强国战略”、“保持制造业比重基本稳定”，与“十二五”提出的“服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重提高４个百分点”、“十三五”规划提出的“服务业比重进一步提高”截然不同。我们有理由相信 2020-2025 期间，物流行业的需求有望实现不慢于 GDP 的增长，保守假设 2020-2025年我国 GDP复合增速为 5%，且物流总额增长率与 GDP增速保持一致，则根据我们的测算，2025年我国物流总额有望突破 380万亿元。
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物流行业：高端制造的重要拼图智慧仓储物流产业迎黄金发展-210826（20页）.pdf
2020年全球20大物流系统集成商
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部分支持物流智能化和两业联动融合的文件
未来五年我国物流行业整体或仍存较大压力
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