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美国经济衰退概率与GDP环比变化率
美国经济衰退概率与GDP环比变化率
行业数据
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贵金属行业深度研究：金牛将启银亦相随-230113（36页）.pdf
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图2：购买力平价隐含的相对价格水平（美国=100），按经济体排序，介于2012年（x轴）与2025年（y轴）之间
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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图4：.全要素生产率、人均资本和人均GDP指数（2001年=100），肯尼
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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肯尼亚在过去二十年的增长表现相对强劲。图1：2001-2024年肯尼亚及选定国家群体的实际GDP增长
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2026-07-21
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图5：.潜在GDP贡献因素，肯尼亚及同类国家
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2026-07-21
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图18：.普通收入（占GDP百分比），2016/17-
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2026-07-21
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Figure 38： . Deviation in real GDP from baseline due to climate change impacts by damage channel, 2050
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2026-07-21
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Figure 37： . Domestic credit to the private sector and value-added in services (share of GDP), 2019
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2026-07-21
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Figure 1： .Real GDP growth,Kenya, and selected country groups,2001-2024
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2026-07-21
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图38.2050：年各损害渠道气候变化影响导致的实际GDP与基线偏离
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2026-07-21
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图37：.对私营部门的国内信贷与服务业增加值（占GDP比重），2019年
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2026-07-21
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图13：.国际收支（占GDP百分比），2006-
5Lul5LiL5piv5Zu+54mH5Lit5o+Q5Y+W55qE5pWw5o2u6KGo5qC85Y+K6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaCgojIyMg6KGoMe+8muWHgOWkluWbveebtOaOpeaKlei1hO+8iOWNoEdEUOeZvuWIhuavlO+8ie+8jDIwMDYtMjAyNAoKfCDlubTku70gfCDlh4DlpJblm73nm7TmjqXmipXotYQgKCUgb2YgR0RQKSB8Cnw6LS0tLTp8Oi0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS06fAp8IDIwMDYgfCAwLjEwIHwKfCAyMDA3IHwgMS45MiB8CnwgMjAwOCB8IDAuMTUgfAp8IDIwMDkgfCAwLjE4IHwKfCAyMDEwIHwgMC40MiB8CnwgMjAxMSB8IDIuOTggfAp8IDIwMTIgfCAyLjA2IHwKfCAyMDEzIHwgMS41MiB8CnwgMjAxNCB8IDEuMTIgfAp8IDIwMTUgfCAwLjU2IHwKfCAyMDE2IHwgMC40OSB8CnwgMjAxNyB8IDEuNTQgfAp8IDIwMTggfCAwLjg3IHwKfCAyMDE5IHwgMC40NSB8CnwgMjAyMCB8IC0wLjM1IHwKfCAyMDIxIHwgLTAuMjggfAp8IDIwMjIgfCAwLjI0IHwKfCAyMDIzIHwgMC4yMSB8CnwgMjAyNCB8IDAuMDUgfAoKIyMjIOihqDLvvJrlm73pmYXmlLbmlK/mnoTmiJDvvIjljaBHRFDnmb7liIbmr5TvvInvvIwyMDA2LTIwMjTvvIjnm67mtYvkvLDnrpflgLzvvIkKCnwg5bm05Lu9IHwg57uP5bi46LSm5oi3IHwg6LWE5pys6LSm5oi3IHwg5aSW5Zu955u05o6l5oqV6LWEPGJyPijlh4Dpop0pIHwg6K+B5Yi45oqV6LWEPGJyPijlh4Dpop0pIHwg5YW25LuW6YeR6J6N6LSm5oi3IHwg5YeA6K+v5beu5LiO6YGX5ryPIHwg5YKo5aSH6LWE5LqnPGJyPigr5o2f5aSxLy3mlLbnm4opIHwgKirlkIjorqEqKiB8Cnw6LS0tLTp8Oi0tLS0tLS0tOnw6LS0tLS0tLS06fDotLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS06fDotLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS06fDotLS0tLS0tLS0tLS06fDotLS0tLS0tLS0tLS06fDotLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS06fDotLS0tLS0tLTp8CnwgMjAwNiB8IC0zLjIgfCAwLjEgfCAwLjEgfCAwLjIgfCAxLjggfCAwLjQgfCAwLjUgfCAqKi0wLjEqKiB8CnwgMjAwNyB8IC00LjUgfCAwLjEgfCAxLjkgfCAwLjUgfCAyLjIgfCAwLjYgfCAxLjIgfCAqKjIuMCoqIHwKfCAyMDA4IHwgLTUuMiB8IDAuMSB8IDAuMiB8IC0wLjMgfCAxLjUgfCAwLjggfCAyLjUgfCAqKi0wLjQqKiB8CnwgMjAwOSB8IC0zLjggfCAwLjEgfCAwLjIgfCAxLjIgfCAyLjAgfCAwLjUgfCAtMS41IHwgKiotMS4zKiogfAp8IDIwMTAgfCAtNC4wIHwgMC4wIHwgMC40IHwgMS41IHwgMi41IHwgMC42IHwgLTIuOCB8ICoqLTEuOCoqIHwKfCAyMDExIHwgLTIuNSB8IDAuMSB8IDMuMCB8IDEuOCB8IDMuMiB8IDAuOCB8IC00LjUgfCAqKjEuOSoqIHwKfCAyMDEyIHwgLTEuOCB8IDAuMSB8IDIuMSB8IDEuMiB8IDIuOCB8IDAuNSB8IC0zLjIgfCAqKjEuNyoqIHwKfCAyMDEzIHwgLTIuMiB8IDAuMSB8IDEuNSB8IDAuOCB8IDIuMiB8IDAuNCB8IC0yLjggfCAqKjAuMCoqIHwKfCAyMDE0IHwgLTEuMCB8IDAuMSB8IDEuMSB8IDAuNSB8IDMuNSB8IDAuNiB8IC01LjggfCAqKi0xLjAqKiB8CnwgMjAxNSB8IC0wLjUgfCAwLjEgfCAwLjYgfCAwLjMgfCA0LjIgfCAwLjggfCAtNy41IHwgKiotMi4wKiogfAp8IDIwMTYgfCAwLjIgfCAwLjEgfCAwLjUgfCAtMC4yIHwgMy44IHwgMC41IHwgLTQuMiB8ICoqMC43KiogfAp8IDIwMTcgfCAxLjAgfCAwLjEgfCAxLjUgfCAtMC41IHwgMi41IHwgMC40IHwgLTMuNSB8ICoqMS41KiogfAp8IDIwMTggfCAwLjUgfCAwLjEgfCAwLjkgfCAtMS4yIHwgMi4wIHwgMC4zIHwgLTEuOCB8ICoqMC44KiogfAp8IDIwMTkgfCAwLjggfCAwLjEgfCAwLjUgfCAtMC44IHwgMS41IHwgMC4yIHwgLTAuNSB8ICoqMS44KiogfAp8IDIwMjAgfCAxLjUgfCAwLjAgfCAtMC40IHwgMC41IHwgMC44IHwgMC4xIHwgMC4yIHwgKioyLjcqKiB8CnwgMjAyMSB8IDEuMiB8IDAuMCB8IC0wLjMgfCAwLjggfCAwLjUgfCAwLjEgfCAwLjEgfCAqKjIuNCoqIHwKfCAyMDIyIHwgMC44IHwgMC4wIHwgMC4yIHwgMC41IHwgMC4zIHwgMC4xIHwgMC4wIHwgKioxLjkqKiB8CnwgMjAyMyB8IDAuNiB8IDAuMCB8IDAuMiB8IDAuMyB8IDAuMiB8IDAuMSB8IDAuMCB8ICoqMS40KiogfAp8IDIwMjQgfCAwLjUgfCAwLjAgfCAwLjEgfCAwLjIgfCAwLjIgfCAwLjEgfCAwLjAgfCAqKjEuMSoqIHwKCj4gKirms6gqKu+8muihqDLmlbDmja7kuLrmoLnmja7loIblj6Dmn7Hnirblm77nm67mtYvkvLDnrpfnmoTov5HkvLzlgLzvvIzlrp7pmYXmlbDlgLzor7fku6VJTUbljp/lp4vmlbDmja7kuLrlh4bjgILlhbbkuK3lgqjlpIfotYTkuqflj5jliqjnrKblj7fpgbXlvqrkvJrorqHlh4bliJnvvIjotJ/lgLzooajnpLrlgqjlpIflop7liqAv5pS255uK77yJ44CCCgotLS0KCioq6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaKiog5Zu96ZmF6YeR6J6N57uf6K6h77yM5Zu96ZmF6LSn5biB5Z+66YeR57uE57uH77yISW50ZXJuYXRpb25hbCBGaW5hbmNpYWwgU3RhdGlzdGljcywgSU1G77yJ44CC
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2026-07-21
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图9：.利息支付（占收入百分比）和政府总债务（占GDP百分比），202
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2026-07-21
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图14：.对私营部门的国内信贷（占GDP的百分比），2023年
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2026-07-21
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Figure 13： . Balance of payments (percent of GDP), 2006-
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2026-07-21
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韩国长期AI投资计划接近一年GDP的两倍
fCDpobnnm64gfCDph5Hpop3vvIjkuIfkur/pn6nlhYPvvIkgfAp8Oi0tLTp8Oi0tLTp8CnwgKirkuInmmJ/pm4blm6IqKiB8IDIsNjU1IHwKfCAqKlNL6ZuG5ZuiKiogfCAyLDEwMCB8CnwgKirmgLvmipXotYQqKiB8IDQsNzU1IHwKfCAqKumfqeWbvTIwMjXlkI3kuYlHRFAqKiB8IDIsNjc3IHwKfCAqKuW5tOWdh+aKlei1hCoqIHwgMzg3IHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8muW9reWNmu+8jOeUs+S4h+Wuj+a6kOeglOeptg==
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2026-07-21
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2026-07-30
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2026-07-30
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2.美债收益率曲线倒挂无法持续，23H2 曲线结构将逐步转正 观察自 1988 年以来的美债收益率曲线倒挂情形，可以发现倒挂持续时间约为 6-12 个月，美国“大滞胀”时期（1965-1982 年）的两次倒挂分别持续 20 个月和 14 个月。目前美国PCE 物价指数与 1982 年较为接近，大滞胀尾部时期美债收益率曲线倒挂持续了约 14 个月。本轮倒挂始于 22 年 7 月份左右，如果按照过去几轮的倒挂持续时间推算，倒挂最长或将持续至 23 年三季度左右。
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