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图33漂浮式海上风电LCOE成本发展趋势预测（2018年预测值）

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所属报告：

电气设备行业深度报告：海上风电号角吹响细分龙头乘风起航-210715（38页）.pdf

打包全文图表

漂浮式海上风电最晚 2029 年实现平价上网。漂浮式风电适用于水深大于 60 米或海床条件不适宜采用固定式的场景，与固定式相比目前最大的制约因素在于成本较高。据伍德麦肯兹测算，未来十年亚太地区将建成超过 10GW 漂浮式风电项目，总投资大约580 亿美元（约合 5800 美元/kW），2025 年至 2030 年漂浮式风电造价将下降 40%左右，达到 2600-4000 美元/kW 的水平。此外，我们预计目前在建项目 Hywind Tampen 造价约为 5700 美元/kW，韩国蔚山待建项目造价约为 5400 美元/kW，造价大约为固定式海上风电的两倍。目前漂浮式海上风电项目运行数据有限，尚无可靠的 LCOE 测算。根据美国能源部在 2018 年对各方对于漂浮式海上风电 LCOE 预测结果的分析可知，漂浮式LCEO 有望从 2020 年的 0.2 美元/kWh 下降到 2030 年的 0.07 美元/kWh。根据英国海上可再生能源孵化中心（ORE Catapult）最新研究，预计到 2029 年英国浮式风电项目在CFD 中的中标电价将低于电力市场批发价，意味着届时浮式风电将实现平价上网。此外，考虑到固定式海上风电技术及其商业化经验可以快速移植到漂浮式，降本速度有望进一步加快。目前可见的降本途径主要包括固定式机组经验移植、充分利用现有供应链、机组轻量化和模块化、充分利用现有施工资源、借鉴海洋工程平台技术和获取优于近岸的风能资源。根据碳信托（Carbon Trust）的研究，到 2030 年，全球浮式海上风电规模将达到 15GW，到 2040 年将达到 70GW；DNV GL 预测，到 2050 年，全球浮式风电规模有望达到 260GW。

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