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继2019/2024后，证监会再度表态，适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限

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所属报告：

A股策略周报：冬天里的一把火跨年攻势迈向新高-251207（17页）.pdf

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1. 重振旗鼓：中国股市将向上迈出新台阶....................................................... 3 2. 无风险收益下沉：2025 年只是开始，2026 年是固收走向固收+的大年 ... 4 3. 资本市场进入新历史阶段：中国社会与经济发展的连接和纽带 ............... 6 4. 步出先手棋后，进入跨年攻势：看好科技、券商与消费 ........................... 8 5. 主题推荐：商业航天/AI 应用/机器人/内需消费 ........................................ 13 6. 风险提示 ........................................................................................................ 16 1. 重振旗鼓：中国股市将向上迈出新台阶重振旗鼓：中国股市将向上迈出新台阶。11 月 24 日上证指数跌至 3800 点悲观之际，国泰海通策略作出重要研判“关键位置：进入击球区，步出先手棋”1，表态看好科技/券商/部分消费。近期，中国股市开始企稳反弹，12 月5 日券商/保险拉升，激活市场人气。对后市，我们认为在较长时间的横盘整理后，中国股市将进入跨年攻势，指数将向上迈出新台阶：1）经济工作会议临近，2026 年是十五五开局之年，经济日报金观平 12 月 7 日指出“宏观政策不能松劲，要以更加积极有为的实招硬招，持续助力经济发展”，我们预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政策有望更加积极。2）考虑近期走弱的房地产销售面积，若美联储 12 月降息，当下人民币稳定升值也为 2026 年初中国宽松货币提供有利条件。3）国家金融监管总局下调保险公司权益入市风险因子；继 2019/2024 后，证监会再度表态，适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限；改革提振中国市场风险偏好。12-2 月是中国政策、流动性、基本面向上共振的窗口期，我们认为中国股市将逐步展开跨年攻势，上升的空间还很大。

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