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图2中国能源转型展望2025的两个碳中和情景
图2中国能源转型展望2025的两个碳中和情景
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所属报告：
CET：2025年中国能源转型展望报告-执行摘要（58页）.pdf
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行业数据
2026-07-02
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中国新能源汽车月出口
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行业数据
2026-07-01
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4M26中国新能源汽车出口能源结构占比
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行业数据
2026-07-01
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中国新能源资源分布与负荷中心示意
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行业数据
2026-06-25
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2015-2026M5中国汽车及新能源汽车销量情况（单位：万辆）
fCDlubTku70gICAgICAgICB8IOaxvei9pumUgOmHj++8iOS4h+i+hu+8iSB8IOaWsOiDvea6kOaxvei9pumUgOmHj++8iOS4h+i+hu+8iSB8IOaWsOiDvea6kOi9puWNoOavlO+8iCXvvIkgfAp8LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18CnwgMjAxNSAgICAgICAgIHwgMjQ1NiAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IDMzICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfCAxJSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDE2ICAgICAgICAgfCAyNzk0ICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgNTAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IDIlICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfAp8IDIwMTcgICAgICAgICB8IDI4OTQgICAgICAgICAgICAgfCA3NyAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgMyUgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8CnwgMjAxOCAgICAgICAgIHwgMjgwNCAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IDEyNSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfCA0JSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDE5ICAgICAgICAgfCAyNTc1ICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgMTIxICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IDUlICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjAgICAgICAgICB8IDI1MjcgICAgICAgICAgICAgfCAxMzMgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgNSUgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8CnwgMjAyMSAgICAgICAgIHwgMjYyNSAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IDM1MSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfCAxMyUgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDIyICAgICAgICAgfCAyNjg1ICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgNjg3ICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IDI2JSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjMgICAgICAgICB8IDMwMDUgICAgICAgICAgICAgfCA5NDUgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgMzElICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNCAgICAgICAgIHwgMzE0MyAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IDEyODYgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfCA0MSUgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1ICAgICAgICAgfCAzNDM1ICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgMTY0NCAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IDQ4JSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjZNMSAtIE01ICAgfCAxMjIxICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgNTgwICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IDQ4JSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfAoK6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77ya5Lit5Zu95rG96L2m5bel5Lia5Y2P5Lya44CB5bm/5Y+R6K+B5Yi45Y+R5bGV56CU56m25Lit5b+D
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行业数据
2026-06-25
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中国新能源车销量
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行业数据
2026-06-23
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图表：2025年3月3日-3月9日中国市场新能源品牌销量
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行业数据
2026-06-18
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中国新能源汽车维保产值规模及占比 (单位：亿元)
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市场规模
2026-06-15
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中国新能源汽车销量（万辆）
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行业数据
2026-06-12
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表112025年中国研究生能源装备创新设计大赛报名规模TOP30
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市场规模
2026-06-11
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2026年4月中国新能源汽车销量134.4万辆，同环比+9.7%/+7.3%
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在对2060年前中国能源转型的分析中，CETO2025课题组设置了两 个情景。两个情景的共同点，是中国将在2030年前实现碳达峰、2060 年前实现碳中和。考虑到全球气候变化形势日益紧迫，但是国际政治 如期实现，努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。中国温室气体排放总量中， 二氧化碳排放占81%左右。能源生产消费活动排放的二氧化碳，占全国 经济态势更加复杂多变，技术创新和推广应用潜力巨大但其进程有赖 于高水平国际合作。课题组设置了基准碳中和情景（BCNS）和理想碳 二氧化碳排放的比重为87%左右。因此，能源转型是中国应对全球气候 变化的主战场。立足中国国情，借鉴国际经验，统筹中国的经济社会 发展和碳排放目标愿景，描绘中国式现代化征途上的中国能源转型蓝 上，回顾了近几年中国能源转型的成效，对2060年前的中国能源生产 和消费的转型前景进行建模分析，重点探讨两个情景条件下，中国实 现能源系统净零碳排放的路径和技术解决方案。课题组采用中国终端 能源需求分析模型（ERI-LEAP）、中国电力热力部署优化模型（ERI- EDO）和中国能源转型社会经济影响评价模型（CETPA），分析了终 端能源消费、电力热力供应及分布、能源转型对经济社会和环境的影 响，努力探索出一条在本世纪中叶实现社会主义现代化强国目标和 2060年前碳中和目标下，最安全、最可行、最经济的能源转型道路， 统筹推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长，最终实现人与自然和谐共生的中 国式现代化。
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CET：2025年中国能源转型展望报告-执行摘要（58页）.pdf
图60 《中国能源转型展望2025》各章关系图
图582030~2060年新能源部门的资本存量
图592030和2060年风电和太阳能发电部门的就业量变化趋势
图572030~2060年化石能源部门的资本存量
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