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特朗普执政期间美国贸易政策不稳定
特朗普执政期间美国贸易政策不稳定
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所属报告：
2026年宏观经济及大类资产展望：锚定新航向，奋进新征程-251218（33页）.pdf
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行业数据
2026-07-10
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美国人希望府关注的问题与他们认为特朗普最关注的问题之间的差异对比
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行业数据
2026-06-25
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行业数据
2026-06-25
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行业数据
2026-06-12
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2017特朗华期A股市场各行业表现
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2026-06-12
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特朗两次华中国均给予高规格待
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2026-06-12
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2026年4月，相比去年同期对特朗各类策的反对比例上升
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2026-06-12
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图：T3：特朗普担任美国总统对国际采购的预期影响程度
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2026-04-08
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图：T4：企业对特朗普担任美国总统可能对其供应链影响的预期结果
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2026-04-08
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美国历届总统支持率，特朗普表现较差
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2026-03-16
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亨里奇基金报告 – 特朗普效应：美国和中国如何推动亚洲工厂的外国直接投资演变
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2026-03-03
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海宁基金会报告 - 特朗普效应：美国与中国如何推动工厂亚洲的外商直接投资演变
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2026-03-03
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海纳瑞基金会报告 - 特朗普效应：美国与中国如何驱动工厂亚洲的外国直接投资演变
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行业数据
2026-03-03
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希宁基金会报告 - 特朗普效应：美国和中国如何推动工厂亚洲的外商直接投资演变
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2026-03-03
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欣瑞克基金会报告 - 特朗普效应：美国和中国如何推动亚洲制造业的FDI演变
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2026-03-03
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美国政策的不确定性在 2025 年有所体现。在贸易政策方面，特朗普开启第二任期后，基于“美国优先”的原则，2025 年 2 月以芬太尼问题为由对华加征关税，2025 年 4 月推出“对等关税”政策，引发全球资本市场大幅波动，此后多次与各国领导人会谈沟通，对关税具体政策进行博弈。贸易政策的多次调整，使得企业难以形成稳定的生产经营与贸易预期。 此类政策调整的反复性亦体现在国防预算领域，特朗普政府曾提出未来 5 年每年削减 8%国防预算，但其上任后主张推行的大美丽法案却将预计大幅提升美国国防开支，政策主张与实际执行存在差异。但在明年中期选举背景下，特朗普政府稳定经济的诉求增强。鉴于美国在 2025 年已经把“关税牌”打到极致，继续加征关税的边际效力下降。因此，2026 年贸易政策的扰动可能趋于收敛，关税层面的进一步动作概率较低。但美国政府的财政压力并未缓解，在此背景下，特朗普政府更可能寻求通过货币政策实现稳增长与稳财政的双重目标，降息大概率会成为减轻财政利息支出、提振经济活动的更具操作性的政策抓手。
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2026年宏观经济及大类资产展望：锚定新航向，奋进新征程-251218（33页）.pdf
美国平均未偿还国债利率（%）
12月点阵图显示2026年降息仍维持1次25个基点的空间
目前市场预期2026年1月继续降息概
近年美联储联邦基金目标（%）
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2026-07-10
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