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韩国出口结构来看，以重工业为代表的出口产品份额提升幅度较为明显

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所属报告：

【国金证券】A股策略专题：策略联合行业研究报告-AI的尽头是电力-251116（51页）.pdf

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在全球性电力供应短缺的背景下，主要制造业国家出口份额往往趋于抬升。电力短缺通常会制约产能的释放，尤其对能源依赖性较强的国家影响更为显著，而具备稳定能源保障和完整产业链的制造业大国则更容易承接外部需求转移，从而获取更大的国际市场份额。复盘 80 年代以来全球缺电阶段主要制造业大国的出口来看：①日本：受到日美贸易摩擦及《广场协议》的影响，日本加速推动产能出海，而其本土出口份额在全球缺电阶段仍保持高位震荡。值得关注的是，日本具备出口比较优势的三大产业（机械、电机和运输设备，80 年代末三者合计占据日本出口比重接近 70%）在出口总量并未显著扩张的背景下出口结构占比仍呈现上升态势，反映出其核心产业较强的全球竞争力。②韩国：得益于全球产业转移浪潮（由日、德转向亚洲“四小龙”），韩国自 20 世纪 70 年代开始加速本国的工业化进程。而在80 年代后期开启的全球缺电阶段，由于其产业竞争力已然提升，韩国出口份额从 80 年代初期的不足 1%提升至 1995年的 2.4%，其中，重工业产品的出口占比提升幅度更为明显。③中国：在 21 世纪以后的两轮全球电力供应短缺阶段，无论是 21 世纪初的中国工业化阶段，还是 2020-2022 年全球经济的疫后复苏，中国出口份额均趋于扩张。结构层面上：一是具备出口比较优势的产业出口份额继续扩张；二是前期出口结构占比相对稳定的高耗能行业（如化工、钢铁）则因海外供给受限而迎来份额与结构双升，体现出中国制造业在全产业链的供应优势。

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