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美国私募信贷违约率仍较低
美国私募信贷违约率仍较低
行业数据
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所属报告：
“流动性笔记”系列之六：美国信贷市场风险几何？-251102（25页）.pdf
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耶伦任期内美国失业率到达较低水平
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2025年韩国中央政府债务率上升至47.1%，但仍处于可控水平
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行业数据
2026-03-24
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行业数据
2026-03-13
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当下私募信贷硬违约率仍相对较低，且外溢的风险相对有限。一方面，就借款人的违约风险看，2008 年次贷借款人的信用风险显著高于当下私募信贷的典型借款人。私募信贷违约率长期在 1–2%区间，截至 2025 年二季度末，私募信贷违约率约为 1.8%。另一方面，就外溢效应来看，金融危机的次贷风险证券化程度深，可交易属性是风险暴发的关键；而私募信贷为非交易私募贷款，通常持有至到期。养老金、保险公司出于资产负债匹配与收益追求，是私募信贷的主要 LP。这类机构资金以闭锁承诺资本而非随取随到的存款形式投入，负债端久期远长于银行短期同业负债。监管上多采用充足率管理，容忍度高于银行存款人。如果出现冲击，更可能表现为养老金或保险公司净值波动、个别基金违约，而非席卷银行核心负债的全面挤兑。
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“流动性笔记”系列之六：美国信贷市场风险几何？-251102（25页）.pdf
近期，VIX指数回落，企业债信用利差下行
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