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图1.1全球平均气温每升高1C对农作物产量的影响

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所属报告：

四川大学：2025应对气候变化：生态农业如何助力研究报告（117页）.pdf

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1.1.2气候变化对农业的多维冲击温室气体排放量的增加会导致全球气温上升，进而引发一系列连锁反应，如冰川融化、海平面上升、极端天气事件频发等。这些变化将对农业生产和生态系统造成严重影响，威胁粮食安全和生态安全。全球气候变化对农业生产的系统性冲击已在多维度显现。基于全球的普遍观察，气候变化对农业的常见影响包括以下几个方面。气候变化对农业最明显的影响之一是农作物产量下降。气温升高和降雨模式变化会导致干旱、洪水和热浪，所有这些都会对农作物生长产生不利影响。极端旱、涝都会导致作物授粉不利甚至无法授粉。此外，干旱会导致植物枯萎死亡，而洪水会淹没田地并淹没农作物。热浪还会导致热应激和植物受损，从而导致产量和质量下降。根据IPCC的研究，全球平均气温每升高1℃都将造成主要农作物产量的大幅下降，例如小麦（下降6.0±2.9%）、稻米（下降3.2±3.7%）、玉米（下降7.4±4.5%）和大 2020）。近几年，我国因气候变化引起的极端降水事件明显加剧，总体上呈现为南涝北旱，且灾害面积在不断增加，导致区域内作物生长严重受阻，甚至出现绝收现象。另外，由全球气候的极端变化引引发的低温冷害、热害等气候灾害也时有发生，总体上呈现东北/华北地区的霜害持续存在、冻害加重，华南地区的热害持续存在、寒害频发的趋势，甚至部分地区受灾害的影响导致水稻大量减产，严重影响到我国粮食主产区的粮食生产安全（中国农业科学研究院农业环境与可持续发展研究所，2014）。气候变化正在改变许多作物的传统生长季节，使农民难以规划和预测最佳种植和收获时间。气温升高和降雨模式的变化会导致生长季节的长度和时间发生变化。这种干扰会影响作物的生长并降低产量，因为植物可能没有足够的时间发挥其全部潜力。农民需要通过调整种植日历和探索更适合气候变化的新作物品种来适应。随着气候条件的变化，如异常炎热或寒冷天数的变化，不同作物的最佳种植区域也可能改变，作物管理和品种的选择、选育必须跟上这些变化。调整包括作物的改变，例如在干旱多发地区扩大高梁等耐旱作物的种植，以及培育更能适应环境变化的作物新品种（Anderson, 2020）。全球气候变化加快了部分受影响区域内原有作物的生育进程，缩短了生育期，减弱了抵御气候波动的能力。特别是我国华东地区的大麦、小麦和油菜等作物，该地区种植的作物品种大多是早熟品种，随着冬季气候的变暖，作物越冬期也相应的缩短，作物返青拔节或抽苔的时间也随着气候的变

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