您的当前位置：首页 > 行业数据 > *数据区间为2022年一季度至2025年四季度。期限溢价基于各国适配的ACM模型估算得出；七国集团（G7）地缘政治风险评分，为彭博社整合GeoQuant针对七国集团各国发布的政治风险评分

*数据区间为2022年一季度至2025年四季度。期限溢价基于各国适配的ACM模型估算得出；七国集团（G7）地缘政治风险评分，为彭博社整合GeoQuant针对七国集团各国发布的政治风险评分

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*数据区间为2022年一季度至2025年四季度。期限溢价基于各国适配的ACM模型估算得出；七国集团（G7）地缘政治风险评分，为彭博社整合GeoQuant针对七国集团各国发布的政治风险评分_第1页

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*数据区间为2022年一季度至2025年四季度。期限溢价基于各国适配的ACM模型估算得出；七国集团（G7）地缘政治风险评分，为彭博社整合GeoQuant针对七国集团各国发布的政治风险评分_第2页

*数据区间为2022年一季度至2025年四季度。期限溢价基于各国适配的ACM模型估算得出；七国集团（G7）地缘政治风险评分，为彭博社整合GeoQuant针对七国集团各国发布的政治风险评分_第3页

*数据区间为2022年一季度至2025年四季度。期限溢价基于各国适配的ACM模型估算得出；七国集团（G7）地缘政治风险评分，为彭博社整合GeoQuant针对七国集团各国发布的政治风险评分_第4页

*数据区间为2022年一季度至2025年四季度。期限溢价基于各国适配的ACM模型估算得出；七国集团（G7）地缘政治风险评分，为彭博社整合GeoQuant针对七国集团各国发布的政治风险评分_第5页

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所属报告：

世界黄金协会：2025年四季度及全年全球黄金需求趋势报告（24页）.pdf

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2026年,印度的金条金币需求及本土黄金ETF需求有望维持强劲态势。在估值高企、关税压力及外资离开的背景下,印度股市或持中国的黄金增值税新政给本已疲软的金饰市场增添了额外压力, 续低迷且吸引力下降,而市场从金饰需求向纯投资需求的逐步转但这种拖累效应可能会在2026年减弱。中国金饰需求正处于相变,将持续为金条金币需求提供支撑。对低位—且2025年是首次被金条金币投资需求超越。若金价涨中国的金条金币需求将受益于金价上涨势头、潜在的利率下行、幅较去年更为温和,2026年可能成为阶段性金饰需求的底,全年区域地缘政治局势紧张、与印度类似从金饰消费转向投资需求的走势大概率趋于平稳。趋势以及房地产行业持续疲软等因素。受上述相同驱动因素影中国市场也是推高回收金供应总量的主要贡献者。较高的价格敏响,中国市场黄金ETF预计也将延续流入态势。感度、门店关闭以及去库存等共同作用，促成了这一结果。2026 场外需求虽更难追踪,但从综合残差误差及库存变动因素来看, 年初数据显示回收金供应出现了季节性反弹,但仍低于过去的高场沟通后了解,当前场外需求保持稳健;展望未来,该板块驱动因被摧毁。随着消费者逐渐适应更高的价格水平,需求可能出现温素及变动方向或与其他黄金投资板块保持一致。和复苏,但如果金价再经历一年的大幅上涨,则会限制这一复苏 2025年，纽约商品交易所（COMEX)黄金期货基金经理净持仓逆势减少173吨。这一现象或反映出市场正转向更具战略意义的实印度的情况类似。金饰需求在金额上依然强劲，但高金价促使消物资产持仓配置。不过,四季度金价走高及市场波动加剧,也可能费者转向克重更轻的产品。关键区别在于宏观经济层面:印度更导致部分投机者缩减持仓规模。无论背后动因如何，当前持仓状为强劲的经济前景预计会比中国更能持续地支撑金饰需求。态为后续资金流入预留了空间,同时也印证了一个普遍规律:与大规模净空仓位不同,大幅净多仓位对金价走势的预判参考价值敏感性。科技用金需求总体保持稳定,但面临着来自人工智能相较低。² 关应用瓶颈以及美国关税的次生压力,这两方面压力可能会持续不过需要指出的是,在当前金价上涨势能如此强劲的背景下，因至2026年。获利了结而引发投资回落的风险依然客观存在。 2.《黄金市场评论》2022年7月|世界黄金协会

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