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2021-2030年中国卫星平均发射成本

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所属报告：

国防军工行业深度研究：商业航天系列（二）中国火箭首次实现一子级可控回收卫星互联网时代有望加速到来-260715（23页）.pdf

打包全文图表

商业航天的经济性高度依赖发射成本；我国可回收火箭 7月取得较大突破。根据《抢占太空算力战略制高点：全球竞争态势与中国路径》陈岩等，传统一次性运载火箭低地球轨道（LEO）单位入轨成本约为 8000-15000 美元/千克，难以支撑大规模空间数据中心的建设需求，全球多个国家已开展预先研究。如SpaceX公司凭借“猎鹰 9号”运载火箭的一级回收复用技术，已将单位入轨成本降至约 2700 美元/千克；其正在研发的“星舰”采用完全可重复使用架构，目标是将成本进一步压缩至数百美元/千克。这一数量级的成本下降，是其规划部署 100 GW 级太空算力基础设施的核心前提。国内方面，我国现役主力运载火箭—长征系列仍以一次性构型为主，但全产业链也正在密集开展火箭可回收试验，且已经取得突破。2025年以来，我国长征系列火箭、以及蓝箭航天、中科宇航、天兵科技等企业均开展了火箭密集测试，尤其 2026 年 7月 10 日，长征十号乙运载火箭在海南商业航天发射场发射升空，成功将卫星送入预定轨道，火箭一子级成功回收，任务取得圆满成功。本次任务是我国首次成功实施运载火箭一子级可控回收，同时也是全球首次运载火箭海上网系回收。太空发射长期存在高成本特点，重复使用火箭技术对我国意义重大，将为卫星组网、深空探测、载人登月等任务提供更加经济可行的方案，大幅提升我国进出空间能力。目前我国可回收火箭已从关攻键关技转术入工程验证与密集试飞阶段，形成了国家队与民营航天“双轨并进”格局，多型火箭集中开展全流程回收飞行验证，为未来迈向低成本、高频次的“航班化”发射奠定重要基础。

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