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彭博ESI硬数据与软数据意外指数近日均边际下行
彭博ESI硬数据与软数据意外指数近日均边际下行
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所属报告：
宏观专题：超级宏观周后美国后市展望-250807（16页）.pdf
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5Lul5LiL5piv5o+Q5Y+W55qE5pWw5o2u5bm255Sf5oiQ55qE6KGo5qC877yM5Lul5Y+K6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaCgp8IOW5tOS7vSB8IFJPSSB8CnwtLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tfAp8IDIwMjIgfCA0NyUgIHwKfCAyMDIzIHwgNDclICB8CnwgMjAyNCB8IDQ4JSAgfAp8IDIwMjUgfCA0OSUgIHwKfCAyMDI2IHwgNTIlICB8CgrotYTmlpnmnaXmupDvvJpBdmFsZXJlIEhlYWx0aO+8jOS4nOWMl+ivgeWIuA==
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1987-2021年美国ESI参保人数（百万人）
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2023-07-03
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除 Q2 GDP 外，7 月 ISM PMI 和消费者信心调查在软数据层面也揭示了美国经济走弱的信号。从 ISM 制造业 PMI 来看，2025 年 7 月该指数录得 48.0，低于荣枯线，且较 6 月的 49.0 继续下滑，不仅未达市场预期的 49.5，也显示制造业已连续第五个月处于收缩状态。分项方面，新订单延续收缩（47.1），就业指数继续走弱（44.4），仅有生产指数勉强扩张至 51.4，而库存与交货指标也反映出制造商与供应链的谨慎情绪。从消费者信心数据来看，密歇根大学发布的消费者信心指数当月上升 1.6%（1.0 点），终值录得 61.7，该值是自今年 2 月以来的最高水平，但其较去年同期仍下滑 7.1%（下降 4.7 点），反映出美国消费者对经济前景的看法依然偏悲观。因此无论是从企业端还是居民端看，短期非政府部门对于美国经济增长的预期亦不容乐观。
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宏观专题：超级宏观周后美国后市展望-250807（16页）.pdf
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