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中国轮胎市场需求稳步增长：半钢配套与替换为增长主引擎

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所属报告：

中策橡胶-603049-A股公司研究报告：国内第一的轮胎企业海外布局持续推进-260715（38页）.pdf

打包全文图表

2020年至2025年，中国轮胎市场需求呈现稳步增长态势。图片数据显示，半钢配套需求从1.05亿条增至1.50亿条（+42.9%），半钢替换需求从7，000万条增至9，500万条（+35.7%）；全钢配套需求从5，500万条增至8，000万条（+45.5%），全钢替换需求稳定在4，500万条左右。2025年中国半钢和全钢胎总需求约3.82亿条，配套与替换市场比例约1：1.2。数据来源：米其林官网，申万宏源研究

中国轮胎市场需求（2020—2025年，百万条）
年份	半钢配套	半钢替换	全钢配套	全钢替换
2020年	105	70	55	45
2021年	105	65	60	45
2022年	120	75	65	40
2023年	125	85	70	45
2024年	135	90	75	45
2025年	150	95	80	45

数据来源：米其林官网，申万宏源研究

从2020—2025年中国轮胎市场需求数据来看，可以提炼出三个关键判断：
半钢配套需求增长最快，五年增长43%至1.50亿条。图片数据显示，半钢配套需求从2020年的1.05亿条持续增长至2025年的1.50亿条，年均新增约900万条。中国新能源车产业持续领跑全球，2025年新能源乘用车渗透率达53.9%，新能源车配套需求强劲增长是半钢配套市场扩容的核心驱动力。
半钢替换需求从7，000万条增至9，500万条（+36%），替换市场潜力逐步释放。图片数据显示，半钢替换需求在2020—2025年间稳步增长，2025年达9，500万条。中国配套与替换市场比例仅约1：1.2，远低于全球1：3.1的水平，随中国汽车保有量持续增长及车龄提升，替换市场仍有较大的提升空间。
全钢替换需求稳定在4，500万条左右，配套需求从5，500万条增至8，000万条。图片数据显示，全钢配套需求五年增长45.5%至8，000万条，全钢替换需求在4，000—4，500万条区间小幅波动。全钢胎需求与商用车产量及物流运输需求高度相关，替换需求的稳定性反映商用车轮胎更换周期的刚性特征。