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图34三代制冷剂R134a自2024年开启新一轮景气周期

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所属报告：

基础化工行业深度报告：资本开支下行叠加反内卷双轮驱动化工景气回升-251225（22页）.pdf

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公司持续开发非钾产业链拓展利润增长点。据亚钾国际公众号信息，公司参股的亚洲溴业 5 万吨/年溴素扩建项目已具备投产条件，未来公司将以钾为核心，延伸发展溴化工、盐化工、煤化工、复合肥项目以及高新产业一体化等产业链布局，不仅有效提升资源综合利用水平，也将进一步增强公司的核心竞争力。 3.3 处于长景气周期的制冷剂板块三代制冷剂主流品种同样自 2024 年开启景气周期。 2020-2022 年为三代制冷剂的配额基准期，各家企业为争夺配额而增加供应，叠加疫情影响需求，主流产品 R32 价格维持低位。2023 年配额基准期结束，企业逐渐转为利润导向，制冷剂价格逐步企稳。进入 2024 年，三代制冷剂随着配额的开启而进入景气向上周期，价格稳步上涨，价差逐步扩大，企业盈利能力逐步改善。据百川盈孚，2024 年三代制冷剂 R32/R134a/R125 的平均价格分别为 33020/32956/36795 元/吨，同比分别为+123.84%/+37.25%/+46.85%，平均价差分别为 19838/18103/20658 元/吨，同比分别为+876.14%/+164.91%/+127.67%。进入 2025 年，各制冷剂价格和价差延续了 2024 年的上行趋势，2025 年第三季度，三种主流制冷剂 R32/R134a/R125 的平均价格分别为 57851/50873/45500 元/吨，同比分别+59.99%/+59.09%/+46.06% ，环比分别为 +16.14%/+6.68%/+0.51% ，平均价差为45719/35446/30803 元 /吨，同比分别为 +98.58%/+100.49%/+95.36%，环比分别为+24.71%/+13.66%/+9.47%。2025 年 12 月 16 日，R32 价格为 63000 元/吨，价差为 50379元/吨，R134a 价格为 58000 元/吨，价差为 42197 元/吨，R125 价格为 46500 元/吨，价差为 32264 元/吨，仍然处在上行通道中。

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