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1万吨铝合金空心异型材或涉及转口贸易（万

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所属报告：

有色金属行业研究：美国关税对我国铜铝出口影响几何？-241220（39页）.pdf

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墨西哥对铝材和铝制品需求量大，其中自我国进口多。由于墨西哥境内不生产原铝，需要进口铝和铝材满足需求，因而铝材净进口量级较大，2023 年净进口铝材约 90 万吨，而自我国进口 49 万吨；2023 年墨西哥净进口铝制品 6.65 万吨，自我国进口 4.22 万吨。我国铝材在墨西哥境内加工成铝制品出口美国可规避 232 调查。2023 年墨西哥进口铝板带 56.19 万吨，进口需求较大。而自我国进口的铝材主要是铝板带和铝箔，占进口铝材的77%/14%。铝板带可制成下游建筑板材、罐材与盖料、车身板、铝箔坯料等铝制品，铝箔可制成电容器、网、线芯等铝制品。将进口自我国的铝板带箔在墨西哥加工成铝制品并出口至美国，由于大部分铝制品不涉及 232 调查，因此可规避对我国铝板带箔的影响。而由于墨西哥铝材进口量级大而净进口量级较小，可通过境内货物贸易流向变动调整，将自其他国家进口的铝材出口至美国，从而我国铝材不因转口到美国的关税而导致出口减量。自我国进口的铝制品对美国转口贸易部分面临美国关税影响。墨西哥进口及出口铝制品量级都较大，其中，自我国进口的铝制品主要是 761699（其他铝制品），其他铝制品进口量级不足 1 万吨。2021 年起墨西哥对我国铝制品需求量增加，2021-2023 年自我国进口761699 约 3.5-6.7 万吨，而墨西哥本国的铝制品需求小于这一量级，因而自我国进口的铝制品涉及部分转口贸易，从而将受到美国关税的影响。经计算，2021-2023 年各类自我国进口的铝制品为 6.30/4.47/4.22 万吨，其中涉及转口贸易的量级分别在2.84/1.00/0.35 万吨。

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