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全球铷铯盐需求量预测（2025E-2027E）

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所属报告：

【东兴证券】金银河（300619）-全球最大铷铯生产基地建成，稀缺元素价值链或重构公司成长及估值属性-251023（33页）.pdf

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全球铷铯盐需求的增长主要受三大主线推动：（1）铷铯盐现有消费结构的升级。以中国为主的国家或持续拓展高科技领域的铷铯盐应用，原子钟、离子推进器等应用或随着 5G 通信、航空航天、卫星导航等领域的扩张而不断发展，推动铷铯盐需求提升。（2）钙钛矿太阳能电池等新兴需求或引发铷铯盐需求爆发式增长。铷铯盐凭借其优异的光电性能、化学活性与物理特性，将持续受益于钙钛矿太阳能电池等新兴需求的发展，需求曲线不断右移。随着铷铯盐供给的提升、对铷铯盐的研发深入，铷铯盐未来或将有更广泛的应用。例如，铷铯盐在固态电池中可起到提升离子电导率、抑制枝晶生长、增强正极稳定性、降低锂离子迁移能垒等作用，显著提高电池性能和稳定性。（3）铷盐供给预期改善后需求的发展。目前，铷供给端存在限制，全球产量极少，限制了铷市场应用的发展。但其实际应用需求与铯相似，且在部分细分领域中与铯存在差异性及协同效应（如原子钟中，铷因质量轻更适用于航空航天场景；钙铁矿光伏电池中，铷铯协同使用能进一步提升电池效率）。因此，铷供给端生产工艺改善推动供给量提升，或促进铷市场应用快速发展。综合考虑，我们认为 2025-2027年间全球铷铯盐合计需求或由 2025年的 2466 吨升至 2027年的 4600吨，期间年均复合增长率或达 36.6%。2025 年至 2027 年间，全球铷铯盐需求累计增幅或达 87%，合计增量或为 2134 吨。其中，铷铯盐消费结构升级带来的增量或为 503 吨，占比 24%；钙钛矿新兴需求带来的增量或为 688 吨，占比 32%；铷盐需求提升带来的增量或为 944 吨，占比 44%，铷盐需求或由 2025 年的 40 吨（占 2025 年铷铯盐合计需求2%）升至 2027 年的 984 吨（占 2027 年铷铯盐合计需求 21%）。三大增长曲线共振，或推动铷铯需求持续右移。

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