3.1 SHIFTING CONDITIONS IN GLOBAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT likely to be affected are palm oil, coffee, crab, cocoa butter and palm kernel, which constitute Indonesia's agri-food sector, which has long protect their domestic industries. Thanks to the in relation to the US, is highly exposed to these developments. The US remains a critical market for administration, average tariff rates have climbed export destination, and its fourth largest source of to their highest levels in decades. This comes on agri-food imports. Since 2010, agri-food exports in recent years, with the number of harmful to the Us have grown by around 7.5% per year, suooe asaui 'shloz us ueu lay!y saw os anoqe uncertainty in cross-border investment decisions. Furthermore, heightened policy uncertainties also supreme court. For instance, bilateral negotiations developmental goals, as set out in BAPPENAS' VISION 2045. An important pillar of this vision lael au <q pamollot "inr u! stuodu! spoon industrialisation of agricultural commodities, the tariffs globally in November, which included such as processing palm oil and cocoa, to move the sector up the value chain. Escalating trade uncertainties could complicate this strategy. In the meantime, the changing trade environment markets like the US, while a broader global growth slowdown adds further demand-side uncertainty, from an influx of competitively priced imports. to capture greater value from its exports. For tariffs, such as China and Mexico, may divert their example, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Indonesia. At the same time, the bilateral trade deal struck in 2025 between the US and Indonesia, economies in 2024." New opportunities may also Adviser's (TINA) tariff simulation, a hypothetical First and foremost, the external demand shock Indonesia's agri-food export outlook. Based on the However, realising these opportunities will take from US imports, too. Indonesia's success 10 To facilitate modelling at granular product level, TINA follows a partial equilibrium approach which does not take into account second-round efects such as the effects from tariffs imposed on domestic wages, expenditure and cross-sectoral 1 World Trade Organisation, Members conclude Sixth Review of SPS Agre
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