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新增居民贷款规模大幅弱于季节性水平，短贷是主要拖累
新增居民贷款规模大幅弱于季节性水平，短贷是主要拖累
市场规模
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所属报告：
债券研究-不容忽视的信贷需求变化-251114（8页）.pdf
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过去三年失业率的季节性指示2026年二三季度失业率或有
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行业数据
2026-05-25
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我国钾肥消费量季节性周期明显
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行业数据
2026-04-23
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近期全球航班总数有所上升，整体高于季节性水平
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行业数据
2026-03-30
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图2.5 | 全球制造业出口和生产的季节性增长率
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行业数据
2026-03-20
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表3.2 制造行业全产业的季节性增长率
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行业数据
2026-03-20
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除2025年外，美元也在2-3有偏强季节性
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行业数据
2026-02-27
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2026年春节国际航班执行量略高于季节性水平
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行业数据
2026-02-26
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2026年春节国内航班执行量远高于季节性水平
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