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2025年8月以来，美联储主席领跑候选人来回切换
2025年8月以来，美联储主席领跑候选人来回切换
行业数据
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图片格式：PNG
图片大小：167KB
图片尺寸：2244*1015
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所属报告：
“沃什时代”的美联储：旧制度的复兴-260201（26页）.pdf
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市场预期美联储2026年底加息一次（BP，截止5月22日）
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2026-05-25
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美联储理事米兰于2026年3月的报告中提供了15项可实施的缩表方法
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2026-05-25
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图7、2015年以来，两轮较为显著的人民币升值周期均发生在中国PMI扩张和美联储低息背景下
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2026-05-19
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市场预期美联储2026年、2027年均维持利率不变（BP，截止5月9日）
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2026-05-11
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油价冲击、通货膨胀、美联储政策与美国经济周期
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市场预期美联储2026年维持利率不变（BP，截止4月24日）
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2026-04-27
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3）2026 年 1 月中旬，美联储主席头号候选人在里德与沃什之间“反复横跳”，里德胜在“鸽派”立场鲜明，沃什在华尔街、美联储内部的“认可度”突出。2026年 1 月中旬，特朗普表示希望哈塞特留在国家经济委员会（NEC），结合其在 12 月中旬的言论“两个凯文（沃什和哈赛特）都很棒”，市场对沃什提名预期随之升温。与此同时，1 月 12 号-1 月 24 日，里德的提名预期后来居上，在 1 月最后一周一度反超沃什。特朗普 1 月 20 日表示与里德的会面“印象深刻”，并在达沃斯论坛透露遴选“可能只剩下一人”。但是，1 月 30 日，沃什概率凭借白宫会晤+特朗普暗示“此人几年前就该在那”反超至 90%以上，沃什兼具美联储履职经历与华尔街从业背景的优势，为其赢得了远超其他候选人的市场与官方双重认可度。
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“沃什时代”的美联储：旧制度的复兴-260201（26页）.pdf
2026年美联储政策行业报告：提名博弈彰显政策转向，沃什重塑美联储
“沃什时代”的美联储：旧制度的复兴-260201
沃什正式被提名后，黄金、白银价格暴跌
沃什提名概率飙升时，美债利率上行
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