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富查伊拉船燃市场高硫市占率边际下降

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所属报告：

【国泰期货】2026年燃料油、低硫燃料油期货行情展望：估值已被重塑，静待明确驱动-251218（26页）.pdf

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长期以来，中国、印度两国都有采购燃料油作为炼化原料的情况。中国采购燃料油的对象主要是原油进口配额不足的地方炼厂，通过进口燃料油为下游装置增加进料，提升成品油产量；印度则是由于国内成品油需求连年增长，炼厂需要全面提升加工量来满足国内缺口。但近些年，二者对于燃料油在炼化方面的需求都出现了下滑。中国方面，2024 年国内燃料油加工路线的税务政策有所调整，致使这一路线的生产成本上升，叠加上半年国内成品油需求表现平淡，导致炼厂的加工积极性有所下降；此外，燃料油组分，尤其是含硫燃料油持续高位的价格，以及地方炼厂主要进口的俄罗斯 M100由于规避制裁产生的额外成本，进一步抑制了炼厂的需求释放。所以，当山东地炼的产能利用率在 2025年一到三季度初维持低位时，该时间段内的燃料油进口量也处于历史低位。而印度方面，由于众多印度炼厂的成品油出口依赖欧洲的市场份额，印度的炼厂也开始减少燃料油的进口，尤其是来自于敏感地区的燃料油，尝试更多地通过增加非敏感原油的进口量和加工量来摆脱制裁的限制。从中可以看出，中、印两国加工燃料油的需求实际上取决于两点：炼油利润和供应链的稳定性。仅从 2025年底的情况来看，炼油利润可能随着北半球成品油消费逐步转入淡季被削弱，另一方面俄罗斯燃料油的制裁问题仍然存在，再加上目前制裁措施仍然制约着俄罗斯燃料油的出口，预计 2026年一季度中、印两国的燃料油加工需求可能将继续维持弱势。

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