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2025年下半年重大项目投资规模较往年偏低
2025年下半年重大项目投资规模较往年偏低
市场规模
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宏观深度研究：财政能否助力“开门红”？-251228（23页）.pdf
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值得注意的是，在明年专项债额度温和扩张的背景下，明年用于投资和项目建设的专项债发行比例有望温和上行。今年 6~11 月，用于偿还地方政府隐性债务和偿还企业欠款的“特殊”专项债发行占比由今年前 5 个月的 14.9%快速上行至 39.2%，由此，同期实际用于项 目投资的 地方债规模同比回落 2,400 亿元（图表 24）。在 中央经济工作会议要求明年“保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量”、以及“优化财政支出结构”的背景下，我们预计明年两会可能公布新增 4.9 万亿元的地方专项债，其中用于项目建设的专项债规模或将达到 3.5 万亿元，较今年的 3 万亿元同比多增 5,000 亿元（参见《稳地产、促投资以支持内需》，2025/12/12）。如果进一步考虑明年 4 季度中央财政可能继续下发的 5,000 亿元地方债务结存限额中可能有 3,000 亿元用于投资，明年地方债发行额中用于投资的比例可能会进一步上升，从而推动投资增长企稳回升（图表 25-26）。
市场规模
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宏观深度研究：财政能否助力“开门红”？-251228（23页）.pdf
季调后新增财政结余资金占比自今年9月之后持续回升，为明
今年1-5月、7月和11月新增财政结余资金的上升速度均快于
2020年后，政府支出和社零增长，以及内需对实际GDP增长的贡献呈现较为明显的相关走势
广义财政支出的波动对实际GDP增长有比较直观的影响
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