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市场预期联储2027年上半年接近加息1次
市场预期联储2027年上半年接近加息1次
行业数据
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所属报告：
2026下半年美国宏观展望：较快增长、高度分化-260525（26页）.pdf
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2026年上半年基数压力较大，下半年快递业务量增速有望回升
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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2026年上半年大秦线累计货运量同比+8.0%
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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2026年上半年国家积极推出具身智能机器人产业政策
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政策法规
2026-07-06
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图16、2026年上半年红利ETF规模变化构成（亿元）
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市场规模
2026-07-06
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图17、2026年上半年科技ETF规模变化（亿元）
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2026-07-06
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图11、2026年上半年A股、港股红利指数回报
fCDmjIfmlbDlkI3np7AgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IOS7t+agvOa2qOi3jCUgfCDogqHmga/mlLbnm4olIHwg5oC75Zue5oqlJSB8CnwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS0tfAp8IOe6ouWIqeS9juazoiAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgLTEwICAgICAgIHwgMSAgICAgICAgIHwgLTkgICAgICB8Cnwg5Lit6K+B57qi5YipICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfCAtOSAgICAgICAgfCAxICAgICAgICAgfCAtOCAgICAgIHwKfCDmgZLnlJ/muK/ogqHpgJrpq5jogqHmga/njocgICAgIHwgLTExICAgICAgIHwgMSAgICAgICAgIHwgLTEwICAgICB8Cnwg5oGS55Sf6auY6IKh5oGv546HICAgICAgICAgICB8IC0xMSAgICAgICB8IDEgICAgICAgICB8IC0xMCAgICAgfAp8IOaBkueUn+a4r+iCoemAmumrmOiCoeaBr+S9juazouWKqCB8IC0xNCAgICAgICB8IDEgICAgICAgICB8IC0xMyAgICAgfAoK6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaV2luZO+8jOWFtOS4muivgeWIuOe7j+a1juS4jumHkeiejeeglOeptumZouaVtOeQhg==
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2026-07-06
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图2、2026年上半年A股主要指数涨跌幅
fCDmjIfmlbDlkI3np7AgICAgICAgfCAyMDI2IFlUROa2qOi3jOW5hSB8CnwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwKfCDnp5HliJsxNTAo5YWoKSAgICB8IDY0LjQlICAgICAgICAgfAp8IOS4h+W+l+WFqEEgICAgICAgIHwgMTEuNSUgICAgICAgICB8CnwgMzAw5pS255uKICAgICAgICB8IDguNiUgICAgICAgICAgfAp8IOS4reivgee6ouWIqeWFqOaUtuebiiB8IC02LjglICAgICAgICAgfAp8IOe6ouWIqeS9juazouWFqOaUtuebiiB8IC05LjIlICAgICAgICAgfAoK6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaV2luZO+8jOWFtOS4muivgeWIuOe7j+a1juS4jumHkeiejeeglOeptumZouaVtOeQhg==
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2026-07-06
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图18、2026年上半年红利ETF规模
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2026-07-06
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上半年市场股权承销规模排名变动
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2026-07-03
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经历2026年上半年，旅游企业业绩预期普遍下挫，三峡旅游等业绩预期逆势上调
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2026-07-03
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2026上半年医疗板块涨跌幅前十标的
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2026-07-03
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2026上半年材料板块涨跌幅前十标的
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2026-07-03
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2026上半年道指、纳指走势对比
fCDmnIjku70gICB8IOmBk+aMh+i1sOWKv++8iOa2qOi3jOW5he+8iSB8IOe6s+aMh+i1sOWKv++8iOa2qOi3jOW5he+8iSB8CnwtLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18CnwgMjAyNi8xIHwg5bCP5bmF5rOi5Yqo77yIMCXpmYTov5HvvIkgfCDlsI/luYXms6LliqjvvIgwJemZhOi/ke+8iSB8CnwgMjAyNi8yIHwg5bCP5bmF5rOi5Yqo77yIMCXpmYTov5HvvIkgfCDkuIvpmY3vvIgtNSXlt6blj7PvvIkgICB8CnwgMjAyNi8zIHwg5LiL6ZmN77yILTUl5bem5Y+z77yJICAgfCDkuIvpmY3vvIgtMTAl5bem5Y+z77yJICB8CnwgMjAyNi80IHwg5LiL6ZmN77yILTcl5bem5Y+z77yJICAgfCDkuIvpmY3vvIgtMTIl5bem5Y+z77yJICB8CnwgMjAyNi81IHwg5LiK5Y2H77yINSUtMTAl77yJICAgIHwg5LiK5Y2H77yINSUtMTUl77yJICAgIHwKfCAyMDI2LzYgfCDkuIrljYfvvIgxMCXlt6blj7PvvIkgICB8IOS4iuWNh++8iDE1JeW3puWPs++8iSAgIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mldpbmTvvIzmtZnllYbor4HliLjnoJTnqbbmiYA=
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2026-07-03
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2026上半年美股各行业算术平均涨跌幅
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2026上半年道指30涨跌幅前十标的
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市场对联储的加息预期水涨船高，如果不调整货币政策立场，美国金融条件将比目前水平更为宽松，指向较热、甚至过热的增长。中东冲突以来美国通胀回升，市场对联邦储备利率的预期也开始上修，且近期增长预期的回升迹象也可能加速这一趋势。截至 5 月 22 日，期货市场定价的隐含利率预测，从预期今年联储降息 2 次，调整为今年小幅加息，明年上 半年加息 1 次（图表 37-38）。值得注意的是，由于联储 对于政策路径有分歧，所以联储和市场可能进入“价格发现（price discovery）”阶段，今年可能不急于兑现加息。目前市场调查显示投资者对联储未来 12 个月的预期存在分歧： BAML 的 5 月投资者调查显示认为联储会延续降息、维持利率不变、转为加息的投资者比例分别为 49%、29%、17%（图表40）；部分海外卖方机构也预测联储在四季度仍有 1 次降息空间（图表 41）。
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2026下半年美国宏观展望：较快增长、高度分化-260525（26页）.pdf
我们预计2026全年美国实际GDP同比为2.5%
我们预计2026年美国实际GDP季环比折年增速均值达到
2026-2027美国宏观经济预测一览
4月PPI和核心PPI环比增速也分别上行1.4%、1.0%
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